AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[Dave D]

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Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay.

2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.)

After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips.

If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option.


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I thought this was especially interesting. I hadn't really seen a way to put numbers behind this before. 9000 chips is a lot of chips to win on average, too, so thats a pretty big cev/ev seperation.

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Yeah, it's wrong though, there were only something like 1200 in this. First was 7500 maybe? It's not double stacked, it's the nightly 8PM EST tourney.

[Dave D]

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Dave - I just read your post in MTTC and then came to check out this thread. Why are you so adamant that BB's range is TT+? Let's assume that I am BB and my perception of you is based on what you describe - opening a lot, and you have shown down a bluff. Also, let's say that my perception of MP is that he sucks and wants desperately to cash. Given that we are at 185 players and 180 cash, I think, if I'm BB, my range is a lot broader than TT+. If you broaden the range and add in the bubble aspect, I think it makes a push much more preferable with your AK.

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It was just my read of the player.

I mean based on his previous play I didn't think this was a bluff. I dunno if I was opening "a lot", (I had been opening, but not exessively) but I don't think he's playing back at me thinking I'm opening air UTG, he's OOP too.

Also, if he was trying to pick off a bluff, he would have raised more. That raise is begging for a call IMO.

[Dave D]

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Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons:

- we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno.
- AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often
- we're just gonna be folding on most flops

so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling

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See the directly above post.

Also, although implied odds certainly matter, I think I'm getting express odds to hit if I call here given my read that Mp2 will call.

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thats the problem MP2 is never calling, hes either shoving or folding, hes 23bbs deep.

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That's my read of the player, take it FWIW. Also, not to be results oriented but I was correct.

[djk123]

ALL IN

[odellthurman]

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Dave - I just read your post in MTTC and then came to check out this thread. Why are you so adamant that BB's range is TT+? Let's assume that I am BB and my perception of you is based on what you describe - opening a lot, and you have shown down a bluff. Also, let's say that my perception of MP is that he sucks and wants desperately to cash. Given that we are at 185 players and 180 cash, I think, if I'm BB, my range is a lot broader than TT+. If you broaden the range and add in the bubble aspect, I think it makes a push much more preferable with your AK.

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It was just my read of the player.

I mean based on his previous play I didn't think this was a bluff. I dunno if I was opening "a lot", (I had been opening, but not exessively) but I don't think he's playing back at me thinking I'm opening air UTG, he's OOP too.

Also, if he was trying to pick off a bluff, he would have raised more. That raise is begging for a call IMO.

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Dave - Well, your OP says that the table had seen you "open a lot", so I was taking that into account. I don't know that trying to pick off a bluff would necessarily raise more, as the 10K is just over 3x what you raised and basically indicates, from BB's perspective, to MP that MP is playing for his stack. And you are a fellow big stack, so I think BB can expect that you might not want to mess with him on the bubble.

It's just food for thought. I understand that I am not responding directly to the main question you asked in your OP, but I think these threads benefit from a discussion of the entire situation, even if it strays somewhat from the initial question. Good luck.

[Mingdu]

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Also, not to be results oriented but I was incorrect.

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FYP

handy cam showed K fell on the river

[Bakes]

someone make an OP about that bubble [censored], i'm certainly not mathy enough.

[Mingdu]

Chip value and expectations ... I think it is covered here, or at least begun

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wotmog

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oops ... starts in the centre of thread ... just scroll up ... I'm sure this is standard stuff

[Exitonly]

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exit,
im not sure if its accurate but its certainly an interesting way of looking at it. conceptually something bothers me about it. maybe it should be its own thread one way or another?

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yea, i've been playing with it for a bit now, it's not exactly right for sure, because a very big stack in his model would have a higher than possible EV, but the idea is interesting. i can't figure out how to make it work better though.

[Dave D]

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Also, not to be results oriented but I was incorrect.

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FYP

handy cam showed K fell on the river

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I'm really confused. I was correct about him calling PF. We both folded the flop as I mentioned in an earlier post.