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#1
08-27-2007, 10:49 AM
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Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
I'm now nearly two months into my seemingly never-ending slump. After having a nice four day turnaround last week, my weekend playing in cash games wiped out those gains, despite finishing ITM in a stud tourney and a NLHE tourney. The story was pretty much the same as it has been for the last two months...big starter pairs that don't improve, big pairs that improve to two big pairs but get beat by little trips, OESDs that never finish, and lots of live four-flushes on 4th or 5th street that don't fill.
In doing some in-depth hand analysis, I'm finding it is the latter in particular that are costing me a lot of money. (Particularly frustrating is when I start with a four-card flush with none or only one of my suit visible and by 6th street I still haven't hit and no more than one more of my suit has shown up in other hands...and of course the river is a blank.) Over the last two months, my starting four-flushes have only completed 18% of the time...and of those that have completed, 22% have still lost. These numbers seem abnormal to me. Are they? So when do you keep drawing to your flush and when do you fold? I realize that there is no "one-size-fits-all" answer to this question, but I'd like to hear some general "rules of thumb" from the forum beyond the basic guideline of "don't play your starting flush draw if cards of your suit are door-cards in three opponents' hands." P.S. I'm not looking for a math probabilities-type answer. I'm familiar with 7-Card Stud Flush Completion. I'm more interested in tactical advice on playing flush draws on 4th street and beyond. 
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#3
08-27-2007, 11:18 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Uhhhhh, thanks, but that's not working and is only costing me more money. I am either betting out or raising with a majority of my starting four-flushes, as long as I have face-card outs in them, and am continuing to bet on 5th street even when I get a brick. How much more aggressive am I supposed to be than that?
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#4
08-27-2007, 11:23 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
[ QUOTE ]
Over the last two months, my starting four-flushes have only completed 18% of the time...and of those that have completed, 22% have still lost. These numbers seem abnormal to me. Are they? P.S. I'm not looking for a math probabilities-type answer. I'm familiar with 7-Card Stud Flush Completion. I'm more interested in tactical advice on playing flush draws on 4th street and beyond. [/ QUOTE ] Obv you're familiar with the math in these spots, and obv 18% is way out on the tails of the probability curve for completing a 4 flush (even if you count those hands where you pick up the draw on 5th st). This kind of huge mathematical slump can make even great players question their game and play with a defeatist attitude. But, on the upside, if your statistics are accurate then I think you have already found the root of your EV slump... you're running cold! This is way better than finding that you've been playing poorly since cards will always eventually even out, just don't alter your game too dramatically so that when they do you can maximize your profit from them.
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#5
08-27-2007, 11:25 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Maybe try raising the 3 flushes more so you are playing against 2-4 players instead of 4-7 if you want them to stand up more. If you are doing this presumably with high overcards, you will often get to see 4th free so you have a couple shots to pair up or get out for only the price of your completion.
When you hit your 4-flush make sure to pump them up so when you hit them you win big....its the old adage that you want to win more money, not more pots. Given that you play solid, I am guessing its a bit of a drought. Happens to everyone. I am in a bit of a nasty one the last week.
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#6
08-27-2007, 11:44 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Are you taking into consideration the times in which your aggressiveness has given the table an excuse to fold early? Maybe you should factor into your slump, this positive part of playing flush draws is sometimes overlooked.
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#7
08-27-2007, 11:54 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
I apologize for being dense, but I don't understand your comment. Perhaps if you type the explanation of your point slowly I'll have a better chance of comprehending it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#8
08-27-2007, 11:56 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
What were your %s before the slump? Are your BB/hand higher or lower? I think the answer is in your stats, trying playing with them in a before/after comparison.
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#9
08-27-2007, 11:57 AM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
[ QUOTE ]
I am either betting out or raising with a majority of my starting four-flushes, as long as I have face-card outs in them [/ QUOTE ] A four-flush on 4th is almost always worth a raise, whether you have facecards in there or not.
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#10
08-27-2007, 12:11 PM
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Re: Flush draws: When to keep going and when to give them up?
Sorry to hear about the slump. It happens to some of us. Could be the level of competition is better than you think. Table selection is important but why don't you post a few hands. Maybe the help you are seeking could be easily explained if you could demonstrate your playing ability. Don't go overboard, just a few hands would be fine.
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