Party 10/20. Help me with river play please

[StellarWind]

Checkfold is better than checkcall.

If you check Villain will read KQ as your best possible hand and value bet the flush and any ace. That's a large supply of betting hands that beat you.

Villain's losing hand range consists of 55-66, 77-JJ, QT-QJ. All of these hands are showable and beat the bottom two cards on the flop which makes them very poor bluffing candidates. It's possible he might value bet QJ/QT but most players that would try that would have raised the turn instead. Overall his supply of worse hands is quite limited and he is unlikely to make the bet even when he can. Bets from worse hands will be pretty rare.

Comparing the last two paragraphs the ratio of betting better hands to betting worse hands will be very high and 8-1 pot odds are not nearly good enough. Of course folding is a very exploitable play but it should be OK for one-off use. If you played this player constantly the answer might be different.

I'm less sure about bet-folding. Maybe the crucial question is whether he will call with small pocket pairs. It's hard to see why he should but many players hate to make this fold.

[Heisenb3rg]

[ QUOTE ]
Checkfold is better than checkcall.

If you check Villain will read KQ as your best possible hand and value bet the flush and any ace. That's a large supply of betting hands that beat you.

Villain's losing hand range consists of 55-66, 77-JJ, QT-QJ. All of these hands are showable and beat the bottom two cards on the flop which makes them very poor bluffing candidates. It's possible he might value bet QJ/QT but most players that would try that would have raised the turn instead. Overall his supply of worse hands is quite limited and he is unlikely to make the bet even when he can. Bets from worse hands will be pretty rare.

Comparing the last two paragraphs the ratio of betting better hands to betting worse hands will be very high and 8-1 pot odds are not nearly good enough. Of course folding is a very exploitable play but it should be OK for one-off use. If you played this player constantly the answer might be different.

I'm less sure about bet-folding. Maybe the crucial question is whether he will call with small pocket pairs. It's hard to see why he should but many players hate to make this fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree c/c blows for the reasons your perfectly explained... But youve certaintly downplayed how often people call the river bet with any pair here.
He's not really playing it like he has an ace, cause there aren't many aces that can call this turn compared to pairs.
Most people would get more agressive with the flush draw too.

very very easy b/f

[Gurravasa]

Awful spot. Villain doesn't seem like the type that would bluffraise river right? Then b/f hoping him to call with a PP seems like a good line. I don't hate c/c but I don't think this is the player we should do that against. There are some players that always is tempted to bluffbet a scary river, but I don't know how common that is at 10/20.

[secretprankster]

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I was thinking about this on the way home and if he raises we could 3bet as a bluff

there are very few flushes in his range and he has to fear us having 35s or a flush. if he is the kind of player that will raise this super scare card river as a bluff or try for a thin value raise with Ax, we could steal the pot

not that I'd ever have the balls to run this play, but what do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

In theory I like this play, but I'm always hesitant to make plays in LHE that require Villain to fold a good hand in an inflated pot. It might be a good one though, and certainly will screw with his head if (when? lol) it gets shown down.

Oink, what country are you from (since you can play at PP)?

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Oink, what country are you from (since you can play at PP)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Denmark of course. You cant tell from my scandinavian accent..? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways. I have been thinking a lot about this hand. I also posted in on deucescracked where DD was arguing for a c/f.

I have to admit I am surprised that everyone thinks its a b/f (except Stellarwind). I have only played a bit against this guy but as the games at party play calling a raise is MUCH MUCH better than calling a bet if Hero checks.

Villains range is pretty much: fd's, Ax and low to medium pps. He would have played back with good Q's and KK or better. This guy is definetely taking a good A to SD on non flush turn/rivers.

So if hero bets and villain raises his range is pretty much a flush or a low pp turned into a bluff. If I am villain and Hero tanked before betting I would certainly consider an insta raise with a low pp thinking I could fould Qx a good portion of the time.

Even if villain will not bluff enough to warrant a call if raised, the times Hero folds a better hand is eating up a lot of the value in a bet.

I am rambling. But thats cuz I gave this one a lot of thought. I think its a c/f or a b/c. B/f looks good but as the game plays its not better than b/c or c/f IMO.

b/c = c/f >> b/f >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>> c/c

(But i am still thinking)

Thanks for your help anyways guys.

I know tl;dr