Big Pot vs. Unkown Quantity

[John Ryan]

I was visiting my brother in MT, and found a juicy little 2-6 dealers choice game. Usually jumped to 2-12 or NL overs at night and was a good time. I had been playing in it for a few weeks and had gotten a feel for most of the players when this hand goes down. LP is a dealer who plays a little too loose (like a dealer), but usually has a fair idea where he's at in the hand, although he rarely folds once he catches a piece top pair or better, to his detriment. Villain is an older gent, who seems to play relatively tight maybe 20%ish of hands regardless of position. I have little if any read on him, other than he seems tight, but still kind of stupid when it comes to poker. Some of his bets and folds make me feel like he doesn't always understand where he's at in a hand, but unfortunately I've never seen him show one down.

PF: I'm dealt AcQc in 5, I raise to $8 (single $2 blind). Dealer (who respects my play and has told me so) smooth calls in LP(8 or 9). Villain calls in the BB. Pot: $24

Flop: Q82r (one club). Villain checks, I bet 6, LP raises to 12 (if villain folds I 3-bet here, b/c it's spread limit, so there's no point in a slowplay against a weaker queen, which is what I assume he has.) Then villain, c/r to 18. I immediately make my, "What the [censored]?" face. I call though, b/c I don't know much about his play (During the play of the hand I really questioned the 12 cold here, esp if LP has a bigger hand than I think and lids it). LP calls. Pot: $78

Turn 6x (rainbow board). Villain calmly leads out for $6. Pot is now $86. I'm getting 14:1, and it will at least (barring some crazy LP raise) cost me 12 more by the end. So if it goes bet call, call, and then bet, call, call again, I'm essentially looking at a little shy of 10:1 ($114 to $12). I ???

PS, sorry about the formatting.

[BadBigBabar]

if aren't 100% sure you're beat, calling down is fine.

[jesse8888]

If you're going to fold this hand, the place to fold it is on the flop I think, after the raise and check/3-bet. Once you call that bet (which I'm pretty sure is the right play), I can't possible see getting away from this hand. The lack of double-sized bets on the turn and river make the odds just too compelling.

[John Ryan]

I'm not really in disagreement about the error of letting the hand go in a big pot after the turn, esp. against an unknown. Granted the pot is laying me huge odds, but I really couldn't put him on any hand that didn't have me dead, or at best a split. I really feel like I should have just let it go on the flop (on principle, b/c I really feel I'm hardly ever good here). I agree, that was the place to fold. I called, b/c I honestly thought it was possible this guy would check the turn (he was capable of odd things like that), but when he bet with supreme confidence I just decided it was 22, 88, or the occasional QQ (it is possible, b/c he is completely capable of not re-raising it pf). I've played plenty of hold 'em, mostly middle stakes now, and this was just one of those hands that come along where you get dumbstruck. I said aloud, "God, I haven't played nearly enough hands with you to know what to do here." Since I've essentially confirmed my thoughts about the hand, I'll tell the result. Villain had KsQs, and bet it all the way down. At which point LP looks surprised, says, "oh, I win," and turns over AdQd (flopped top pair and a back door fd, just like me). Just one of those funky hands you run into.

[Harv72b]

In a big pot, if you aren't sure that you're beat & you aren't facing multiple big bets cold, don't fold. It's that simple. If you think you're paying off too much because of that, no worries--as you gain more experience, you'll get better at recognizing when you're beat.