Losing 6 Coinflips in a row?

[PairTheBoard]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, thanks... sorry I misunderstood you.
I appreciate it.
So, when I sit down to play this hypothetical game until a Big Win or a 6 flip in a row Loss (whichever comes first), I can expect to have a Big Win 85% of the time. And therefore I can expect to have a 6 flip in a row Loss 15% of the time.


(this is with a 50-50 coin... does this change much with a 48-52 coin or a 44-56 coin?)

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Right. The odds are about 85-15 in your favor for a Big Win vs a "Streak Loss" of 6 in a row.

Suppose the coin gives you only 48% chance of a good flip. This would equate to playing a Casino game paying even money with a 4% edge to the Casino.

You have .52 chance of 1 bad flip, so .52^6 = 1.98% chance of 6 bad flips in a row. That's about a 98% chance for the one time little win of Avoiding a Streak Loss of 6 in a row. Taking the .98^10 you get about 81.9% chance of a Big Win of 10 little wins in a row.

For a 44% coin, .56^6 = 3.08%. A little win is about 96.9%. A Big Win is 73%.

So if you're using this to play a minimartingale betting system you'll find yourself running into Streak Losses of 6 in a row with uncomfortable frequency.

PairTheBoard

[Sandwich]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, thanks... sorry I misunderstood you.
I appreciate it.
So, when I sit down to play this hypothetical game until a Big Win or a 6 flip in a row Loss (whichever comes first), I can expect to have a Big Win 85% of the time. And therefore I can expect to have a 6 flip in a row Loss 15% of the time.


(this is with a 50-50 coin... does this change much with a 48-52 coin or a 44-56 coin?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. The odds are about 85-15 in your favor for a Big Win vs a "Streak Loss" of 6 in a row.

Suppose the coin gives you only 48% chance of a good flip. This would equate to playing a Casino game paying even money with a 4% edge to the Casino.

You have .52 chance of 1 bad flip, so .52^6 = 1.98% chance of 6 bad flips in a row. That's about a 98% chance for the one time little win of Avoiding a Streak Loss of 6 in a row. Taking the .98^10 you get about 81.9% chance of a Big Win of 10 little wins in a row.

For a 44% coin, .56^6 = 3.08%. A little win is about 96.9%. A Big Win is 73%.

So if you're using this to play a minimartingale betting system you'll find yourself running into Streak Losses of 6 in a row with uncomfortable frequency.

PairTheBoard

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"uncomfortable" is relative.... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

An 82% chance of winning $100 and an 18% chance of losing $630... yes, it's a gamble... but it might be fun to try, once.... I've never put $160 (let alone $320) on the blackjack betting circle before.....

Thanks again for the explanation.

[PairTheBoard]

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An 82% chance of winning $100 and an 18% chance of losing $630... yes, it's a gamble... but it might be fun to try, once.... I've never put $160 (let alone $320) on the blackjack betting circle before.....


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You can get about the same action with just one spin of a roulette wheel. Bet $20 on each of 31 numbers. A little less than 82% of the time you will win $100 and about 18% of the time you will lose $620.

I guess doing the minimartingale gives you a feeling that you are executing a plan that gives you a high probability of a small win. You probably get to feel smart when you're doing it and it works. The betting on one spin of the roulette wheel described above probably doesn't give you the same feeling even though the two betting schemes are equivalent - except for the special quirks of blackjack.

PairTheBoard

[Sandwich]

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I guess doing the minimartingale gives you a feeling that you are executing a plan that gives you a high probability of a small win.

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"Hey baby, I'm going to win you $100... watch this."
Only an 18% chance that I'll look like a complete boob, and besides, even if I lose it all, I'll get some "thrill" out of gambling hundreds on one hand.
What can I say... I'm shallow.

Thanks again.

[T50_Omaha8]

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The betting on one spin of the roulette wheel described above probably doesn't give you the same feeling even though the two betting schemes are equivalent - except for the special quirks of blackjack.

[/ QUOTE ] Umm what about all the free drinks you'll get by martingaling before you go busto?

[tmtmdeluca]

the online sites must love this people getting cheated and still dumb enough to come back for more its like someone stole my wallet no sir it just got up and walked away ohh ok where can i find a wallet that cant walk here this one cant walk ok thanks but its gone oh it must have grown legs here try this one oh that ones gone two dont worry kid well find you a wallet with no legs yea one day ill find a wallet with no legs

[grando]

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the online sites must love this people getting cheated and still dumb enough to come back for more its like someone stole my wallet no sir it just got up and walked away ohh ok where can i find a wallet that cant walk here this one cant walk ok thanks but its gone oh it must have grown legs here try this one oh that ones gone two dont worry kid well find you a wallet with no legs yea one day ill find a wallet with no legs

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I can't even begin to comprehend this post