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Old 11-15-2007, 10:56 PM
saefrog saefrog is offline
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Default Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

First let me say that I've been playing professional Poker for about 3 years playing $2 -$5 NL in live casinos. Lately, for about 3 sessions I've been on a loosing streak which is the longest I've gone in 3 years. I had a friend who makes around $50,000 a year playing $2-$5 sit with me to find any problems in my game. He brought up one hand. I'm at a table with mostly calling stations and one aggressive maniac who raises every other pot etc etc. I get 5 limpers and I'm in the small blind with 89S so of course I elect to play. Flop comes out 934 with to diamonds. There was $25 in the pot and with two draws and 5 people I elected to punish the chasing calling stations and bet the pot $25. Of course everyone calls. The turn is a off 5, I bet again and everyone calls. The river is another off 5 and I check. Maniac bets $100 and calling station calls the $100, knowing I'm beat by seeing tells I fold. Maniac flips over 10 2 diamonds for busted flush draw and calling station flips over 5 2 offsuit hitting runner runner trips after his straight draw failed to improve. My pro friend said that most players are bad and will chase every draw and even over cards. Therefor, with 4 other people in the pot calling, with two draws I'm actually a favorite to loose than I will win, so betting to protect my hand will actually cause me to loose more in the long run. He said I needed to just check and if someone bets, check raise big to scare the draws away and go heads up. Or, if everyone checked behind me and I get a non-scary card on 4th, I can bet now and will be a favorite to win and not have a lot of money invested. I thought this was crazy that I have the best hand on the flop, and knowing that I will get called I should not bet. But he is a pro and makes far more money than anyone at the casino. Any thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 11-16-2007, 12:01 AM
drzen drzen is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

You need to read all of his advice.

He's saying that if on the flop there are two big draws (straight and flush in your example), and four people call, it's likely that both draws are being chased. The outs for both together make you a significant dog (if it's both the low cards that are diamonds, they have 15 outs; if it the 9 is a diamond, they have 16). Worse still, even if you bet the pot, you will sometimes have another caller, with OCs, making as many as 22 outs against your hand.

Then he's saying that betting out will not make them fold, so a bet is not protecting your hand. Each will be wrong to call, and you have more equity than either one, but you are a dog to both together. It's called "schooling". You beat each fish, but you cannot beat the school of them.

I'm guessing you haven't played much limit. If you had, you'd be used to this sort of concept. You'd check, let the maniac bet, and put in a raise to fold out other players. If maniac's not in LP, you could just hope button will bet if it's checked to him. But your pro is right, I think. Betting out will never protect your hand against a fishy table on this kind of flop.
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Old 11-16-2007, 12:08 AM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

Worse advice I have ever heard. He must be running real good if he makes 50K per year playing 2/5 nl poker. Tell me, when do you ever want a worse hand than yours to fold. He is correct about one thing, against two players your hand is less likely to win than against one of them, however the pots you do win be be much larger. This actually has a name,it is called "schooling" but is normally reserved for many more oponnents in the hand against you than just two.

This is only a variation of: do you want anyone to fold to your preflop raise when you have pocket aces?



Jimbo
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Old 11-16-2007, 12:40 AM
Adrian20XX Adrian20XX is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

I think the Morton's theorem applys here, but don't remember how you should play this. Google Morthon's Theorem and Implicit Collusion.
Regards ...
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Old 11-16-2007, 01:02 AM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Morton's theorem applys here, but don't remember how you should play this. Google Morthon's Theorem and Implicit Collusion.
Regards ...

[/ QUOTE ]

If I recall his theroy correctly it specifies just the opposite, you should bet/eaise early. Only that you are bound to lose with more players in the pot than less when you don't have the mortal nuts, it wasn't exactly earth shattering information when I first read it years ago on RGP.

Linky

Jimbo
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Old 11-16-2007, 04:12 AM
drzen drzen is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

Morton's theorem is that you make more money if your opponents fold worse hands.

Your link doesn't work.

The thing is, the pro is telling OP to try to check/raise, not to avoid betting. In this instance, with a maniac in the pot, he is likely to get the opportunity.

And there were, I think, four other people in the pot, not two.

Aside from those details, your post was fine.
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  #7  
Old 11-16-2007, 07:50 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

The play is so bad in low stakes live NL games that it doesn't take great skills to win enough to make a living. It takes putting in the hours.

Your friend's advice was terrible. There are some correct pieces, but there were deep misconceptions built in, too, and he missed some important ideas.

Not all top pairs are created equal. Lower top pairs are much weaker than top pairs of aces or kings. For example, suppose you are up against a flush draw. If you have paired the board's ace, your opponent probably has 9 outs. If you have paired the board's top card which is a nine, it is likely that your opponent has 12 or 15 outs with a flush draw and overcards, and there tend to be more possible straight draws, so no card is safe.

Obviously, with 98 on a 943 board, your kicker isn't great, either. It's hard for someone to have a worse kicker than yours.

Position matters a lot. You should bet a lot more frequently when you have position. If your hand will win at showdown 1/3 of the time, and you will get two callers, then you generally expect to get more than 1/3 of the pot if you are in position, and less than 1/3 of the pot if you are out of position, so making the pot bigger is not neutral. It's good in position, and bad out of position.

So, your hand is not very strong and you have an information disadvantage. That is part of why it is reasonable to check/call or check/fold on this flop.

With a stronger hand, or in position, it may be a good idea to bet, even if there are a lot of draws and you won't get them to fold. If you get three callers, par is to win 25% of the time. You should not regret betting if you win 40% of the time, even though some uniformed people will say you are a favorite to lose. It is more reasonable to say that you are a favorite any time you win more than par. The amount you win by betting more than makes up for the small losses most of the time. You will regret checking if someone who would have folded to a bet wins because you gave a free card.
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  #8  
Old 11-16-2007, 08:23 AM
Woolygimp Woolygimp is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

89s on a 934 ds board without a backdoor draw and 5 people, and you're out of position?

I usually c/f this.

For multiple reasons, in live play it's very possible that you'll have several of the more tight players limping in with a small overpair such as TT-JJ, you have about the weakest kicker possible with a 9, beating only 69/79 and losing to T9, J9, Q9, K9, A9 all of which are far more likely. You're TP is very vulnerable, and most FD's with 2 over's, or a pair and FD are ahead of you since your kicker doesn't block well. Meaning, you're 8 isn't going to keep QJs from beating you if a Q or a J come, whereas if you had Q9 or J9 it would.

...and then you are out of position for the entire hand, and if you bet you are likely to bloat the pot with very, very marginal holding.

C/Ring here is absolutely ridiculously retarded as well. You are turning your hand into a bluff, and it's so, so bad. Your friend sucks at poker, and you probably do as well for not immediately recognizing that he's an idiot.

Anyway, follow his advice. "C/R big" with TP to get it heads-up, just don't be surprised when you are shipping your stack across the table, because MP had you drawing to runner-runner because he flopped a set on your ass.
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  #9  
Old 11-16-2007, 08:33 AM
El_Hombre_Grande El_Hombre_Grande is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

"Top Pairs' are not created equal. You have a pair of 9s with no kicker out of position with 5 people in the hand. You aren't slowplaying, you are facing reality.

Your friends advice was right, but yours/his explanation of why you should check was very wrong.
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  #10  
Old 11-16-2007, 09:39 AM
MarvinMartian MarvinMartian is offline
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Default Re: Poker Pro: Almost always slow play top pair????

pzhon and wooly summed it up.
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