Low limit stud says it's correct to complete the bring in....

Andy B · #1 12-01-2007, 03:04 PM

The guy who starts with a pair has something like a 16% chance to hit his set if he stays in until the river. One-pair hands can't handle a lot of pressure and are frequently folded before the end. Meanwhile, if you're rolled, you've got a 40% chance to improve yourself. The guy with one pair isn't that great of a threat. I'm a lot more worried about straight and flush draws.

As for taking your Jacks against open Queens, let's discuss a couple of possible scenarios. Let's say that the Queen raised third, and you called with Jacks because there was a Queen out and you like to gamble. The other guy now hits open Queens. If, as is typical of low-limit stud players, the other guy will only raise third street with big pairs, his possible distribution of hands might look something like this:

AA 6 ways
KK 6 ways
Qx 41 ways
JJ 1 way
TT 6 ways

So it's overwhelmingly likely that he has you crushed. You can't call with JJ in this spot, and it essentially doesn't matter how big the pot is.

Now say that you were the raiser with your Jacks and he called. He probably has something, and maybe it ain't much, but enough for him to call with. There's at least some chance he started with split Queens, and maybe he didn't raise because he didn't like the dead cards or maybe he's scared of his own shadow. Maybe he started with a pair in the hole, in which case you're drawing to two outs. If you have an over-card kicker, it's five outs, but he can still outdraw you. Here, you're not in good shape, and it is very unlikely that the pot will be big enough for you to stay with him. If the pot is big, what the hell are you doing in a big pot with a pair of Jacks in the first place?

Even if the guy "only" started with a three-flush, you're behind, and on balance, the pot isn't going to be big enough to justify look him up. If you never called when you were beaten on board, you wouldn't be far wrong. I make an exception if I have a strong draw and the other guy has an open pair but doesn't seem to be that much of a threat.

ceegee · #2 12-01-2007, 03:09 PM

I can see why you would fold on 4th if they have open queens. He is not saying go ahead and call with only a better kicker, most of the time you want to call if you have a drawing hand as well, IE. JsJcQc[Kc] and your flush and straight is live. I see no reason in folding to a bet faced against queens. Open queens I may call then check fold If I don't improve.

My argument is against Poker CPA on raising UTG with JJ[2] on a non threatening board.

"Even if the guy "only" started with a three-flush, you're behind, and on balance, the pot isn't going to be big enough to justify look him up."

7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 2s Jh 329827 65.97 170161 34.03 12 0.00 0.660
Qc Tc 5c 170161 34.03 329827 65.97 12 0.00 0.340

That is with 3 clubs dead.

Andy B · #3 12-01-2007, 03:31 PM

I'm talking a scenario where you started with Jacks, the other guy started with a three-flush, and he is now showing open Queens. You're not in great shape in this scenario, either.

ceegee · #4 12-01-2007, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm talking a scenario where you started with Jacks, the other guy started with a three-flush, and he is now showing open Queens. You're not in great shape in this scenario, either.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case it's usually a fold then. You are right, because not only does villan have queens with a trip draw or two pair he has a 3 flush. Unless I hold a soild two pair on 4th im ditching.

Now Andy I'd like your opinion on the JJ[2] UTG when faced with an nonthreatening board.

Andy B · #5 12-01-2007, 04:14 PM

I'd pretty much always raise, especially at low limits. They're not putting you on a hand.

Poker CPA · #6 12-01-2007, 06:04 PM

OK CG

"The main objetive in stud according to every book I've read is to get people out as early as you can"

Wrong - The main objective is drag the SOBs the the river and make them payoff on streets 4 thru 7. And wait for them to say "Gee I never know what you're doing, you're the best".

"you don't want people drawing to a hand that will beat yours."

So CJ do you want players chasing you or do you want to be chasing them. I'm confused because most players are trying to beat at least a PP. Everyone behind is drawing and this is where the major mistakes are made. I say let the SOBs chase the trips, st8s and flushs.

Now on to the books. What is your book??? Mine is 7CSAP and the section is "Playing in Loose Games" pages 132 to 174. Page 138 basicly says it all.

Experience tells me in low limit and loose games that "Cheap folds and Biggie Pots" win every time. The battle is not 3th or 4th, but 5th to the river. Not so in the higher limits.

ceegee · #7 12-01-2007, 06:08 PM

"Wrong - The main objective is drag the SOBs the the river and make them payoff on streets 4 thru 7. And wait for them to say "Gee I never know what you're doing, you're the best".

Lol stop and go read some stud books please. You want people to outdraw you? it's +ev to take down a pot when you can unless you have a MONSTER. Seriously take a step back, look at the information on this board and read a couple stud books, and if you have reread them because you are wrong. You cannot slow play aces or kings or any premium pair on 4th if you haven't made trips. People will draw to two pair a lot of the time. You want them out of the pot before they get a chance to do that.