MyTurn's bowl picks

MyTurn2Raise · #1 12-03-2006, 09:45 PM

POTW: Wake/Louisville O48.5 me = slow
LSU -7.5 v Notre Dame
Oklahoma -7.5 v Boise St
Louisville -9 v Wake Forest

MCS · #2 12-03-2006, 09:52 PM

I have

OSU -7 (-116)
USC +3 (-102)
BSU +7.5 (-108)
ND +8.5 (-103)
Lou -8.5 (-111) for 2 units

I'm not usually so square as to just fire away on everything that pops up on the board, but I decided to bet all the BCS games this year, and I actually like all my bets except maybe ND.

I was gonna take Louisville at anything under 11. If I could type faster I'd have gotten 7. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

iggymcfly · #3 12-03-2006, 09:57 PM

I think a fair line for ND/LSU is somewhere around 18.5. LSU will probably end up as my pick of the year.

bills217 · #4 12-03-2006, 09:59 PM

You can't be serious. ND is overrated, everyone knows that, but what has LSU done? They very nearly lost at home to OLE MISS.

I'm not betting ND by any means, but I think 10 is plenty.

MCS · #5 12-03-2006, 10:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think a fair line for ND/LSU is somewhere around 18.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like your thoughts on sports betting, but that seems borderline insane. Sagarin lines it under 7.

iggymcfly · #6 12-03-2006, 10:04 PM

Beat Arkansas and Tennessee on the road. Very nearly beat Auburn on the road. They're about as good as Michigan (who Notre Dame lost to by 26 in South Bend). LSU has a virtual home game playing at the Sugar Bowl.

Playing in a hostile environment, against a team slightly inferior to LSU just last week, Notre Dame lost by 20. Even allowing for some regression to the mean, I think 18.5's pretty fair.

MyTurn2Raise · #7 12-03-2006, 10:04 PM

West Virginia -6.5 v Georgia Tech
I got in at -5, but still a play here

Arkansas -3 v Wisconsin

iggymcfly · #8 12-03-2006, 10:05 PM

BTW, Sagarin has it at 10, not under 7. They're playing in New Orleans, you have to account for home advantage, and even without home advantage, it's still over 7.

MyTurn2Raise · #9 12-03-2006, 10:06 PM

huge home field at the Sugar Bowl...huge

MCS · #10 12-03-2006, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, Sagarin has it at 10, not under 7. They're playing in New Orleans, you have to account for home advantage, and even without home advantage, it's still over 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it depends on if you're looking at rating or predictor. It's under 7 on rating (neutral field), and I misread predictor, but it's still close to 7.

Re: HFA, I wouldn't think they'd get the full 3 since it's not their actual home stadium, but I could be wrong about that.

My point is that I can't see 18.5 at all, and while LSU -8.5 may be a good bet, it doesn't seem so obvious to me.

Plus you all don't know about my secret plans for JaMarcus Russell.