The New BCS Picture

[rwperu34]

Big 10 Champ: Ohio State
Pac 10 Champ: USC
SEC champ: Arkansas/Florida
Big 12 Champ: Texas/Oklahoma/Nebraska
ACC Champ: Boston College/Wake/Maryland/GT
Big East Champ: Louisville/Rutgers/West Virginia

At Large #1: Michigan
At Large #2: Boise State if they beat Nevada
At Large #3/4: Notre Dame/Arkansas/Florida/Oklahoma/Auburn/LSU/Louisville/West Virginia/Rutgers

If Notre Dame beats USC, they will clinch an at large berth.

BCS title game: Ohio State vs USC/Michigan/Florida
There's plenty of other threads speculating who will play Ohio State in the BCS title game.

Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 vs Boise State
Boisie State is in if they beat Nevada. The Fiesta has last pick, and Boise State would probably be the least attractive of all the teams. The Big 12 is far from over.

Rose Bowl: Michigan/USC vs USC/At Large #3 (Oklahoma?)
The Rose Bowl will have first at large pick since they lost Ohio State

If USC beats Notre Dame, whoever doesn't play Ohio State will be here for sure. Both Michigan and USC have already played Notre Dame, so that might keep Notre Dame out of the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma looks like the highest profile team of the at large group, but they could still win the Big 12 and if they don't, they still have to get eligible. If Florida lost to Arkansas, they could be interesting as well.

If Notre Dame beats USC, USC is in the Rose Bowl, and could play Michigan if Florida moves ahead of Michigan to play for the title. Otherwise, same as above.


Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs At Large #4
The ACC is obviously wide open right now. This looks to be the place for the Big East Champ. If the Sugar Bowl gets stuck, you probably see an SEC team here.

Sugar Bowl: Florida/Arkansa vs Notre Dame
I hate to say it, but I think Notre Dame is in regardless of what happens against USC. The Sugar Bowl picks after the Rose Bowl, and if the Rose Bowl passes on a rematch, Notre Dame brings in the most $$$. It comes down to the Rose Bowl's willingness to have a rematch.

If Notre Dame goes to the Rose Bowl, this is a really crappy spot for the Sugar Bowl. If the season ended today, they would have to pick from the Big East Champ, Boise State, another SEC team, and the Big East runner up. The Sugar Bowl, more than any other, needs Oklahoma to get eligible.

If Florida plays for the title, you could be looking at Notre Dame vs another SEC team.

One thing I'd like to point out here. If the season ended today, there would be 11 BCS eligible teams to fill 10 spots.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will play in the national championship game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern Conferences automatically qualify for BCS games each year.

3. One team from among the champions of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference automatically qualify for a BCS game if either: A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or, B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

4. Notre Dame will automatically qualify for a BCS bowl if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team shall become an automatic qualifier.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if Step No. 5 has not been applied and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team shall become an automatic qualifier.

7. If any slots remain unfilled after the placement of all teams qualifying for an automatic berth, then the bowls shall choose their participants from the "pool of eligible teams"

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be impossible for 11 teams to be eligible. I think.

If the season ended today 9 teams are eligible are automatically eligible
osu (criteria #1)
Michigan (1)
USC (2)
sec champ (2)
big 12 champ (2)
big east champ (2)
acc champ (2)
boise state (3)
notre dame (4)

[jgunnip]

The 10th team would be decided by..

[ QUOTE ]
If berths are available after the automatic qualifiers have been identified, then the bowls shall select at-large participants from the "pool of eligible teams," which shall include any Division I-A team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, not including exempted games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings

[/ QUOTE ]

Teams eligible under(A)
Loser of Florida(#4)/Arkansas (#6)
West Virginia(#7 if they lose vs Rutgers the Scarlet Knights get berth)
Wisconsin (#8)
Louisville (#9)
LSU(#10
Auburn(#12)
Texas(#13)
Rutgers(#14)

Teams eligible under(B) all above teams have 9+ wins
Boston College(9-2)
Wake Forest(9-2)
Georgia Tech(9-2)
Virginia Tech(9-2)
Oklahoma(9-2)
Houston(9-3)
BYU(9-2)
Hawaii(9-2)

There are a few 8 loss team that could potentially become eligible.
Tennessee(8-3)
California(8-3)
Texas A&M(8-3)
Maryland(8-3)
Clemson(8-3)
Navy(8-3)
Ohio(8-3)
Nevada(8-3)
Central Michigan(7-4...+MAC championship game)

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will play in the national championship game.

2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern Conferences automatically qualify for BCS games each year.

3. One team from among the champions of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference automatically qualify for a BCS game if either: A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or, B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

4. Notre Dame will automatically qualify for a BCS bowl if it is in the top eight of the final BCS Standings.

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team shall become an automatic qualifier.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if Step No. 5 has not been applied and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team shall become an automatic qualifier.

7. If any slots remain unfilled after the placement of all teams qualifying for an automatic berth, then the bowls shall choose their participants from the "pool of eligible teams"

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be impossible for 11 teams to be eligible. I think.

If the season ended today 9 teams are eligible are automatically eligible
osu (criteria #1)
Michigan (1)
USC (2)
sec champ (2)
big 12 champ (2)
big east champ (2)
acc champ (2)
boise state (3)
notre dame (4)

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean there are 11 total slots to choose from. 9 automatic and 2 others. Keep in mind, no conference can have more than two teams. The number in parentheses is the max number from that conference.

Big 10 (2)-Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin
Pac 10 (1)-USC
SEC (2)-Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn
Big East (2)-West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers
Big 12 (1)-Texas
ACC (1)-None
Other (2)-Notre Dame, Boise State

I'm trying to find a scenario where there will only be 9 eligible teams to fill 10 spots. So far the best I can do is 10.

So the only decision between which conference gets two teams is between the Big East and SEC. As I look at it in this format, it seems like the SEC will definitely get two teams in.

[jgunnip]

The Big East will only get one automatic team, since Louisville will not finish in the top 4.

Also there is nothing in the 2006 rules that states a conference cannot have more than two teams in the BCS.

edit add since I'm posting too much in this thread and on this forum overall since I'm still a little wired from yesturday's game. I agree with MyTurn2Raise, Oklahoma deserves the remaining BCS spot. However, he will likely change his position now to oppose mine since he's such a Michigan hater [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
The Big East will only get one automatic team, since Louisville will not finish in the top 4.

Also there is nothing in the 2006 rules that states a conference cannot have more than two teams in the BCS.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? Someone linked a rule that seemed pretty definite about only 2 teams from a conference in the BCS max unless there were extraordinary circumstances.

It was in reference to why no one was talking Wisconsin.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
The Big East will only get one automatic team, since Louisville will not finish in the top 4.

Also there is nothing in the 2006 rules that states a conference cannot have more than two teams in the BCS.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
No more than two teams from any single Conference may play in BCS games in a single year, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large picks.


[/ QUOTE ]

web page

[jgunnip]

saw the conference affiliations. Its late! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
The Big East will only get one automatic team, since Louisville will not finish in the top 4.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, looking at the remaining games, it's not all that far fetched that the Big East could finish with two teams in the top four.

If WVU beats Rutgers, Louisville is Big East champs.

WVU would then need to move up three spots in the BCS rankings. Given the remaining schedules, that isn't such a long shot. They are sure to rank at least fifth with a win over Rutgers.

[jgunnip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Big East will only get one automatic team, since Louisville will not finish in the top 4.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, looking at the remaining games, it's not all that far fetched that the Big East could finish with two teams in the top four.

If WVU beats Rutgers, Louisville is Big East champs.

WVU would then need to move up three spots in the BCS rankings. Given the remaining schedules, that isn't such a long shot. They are sure to rank at least fifth with a win over Rutgers.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, If Notre Dame, Florida, and Arkansas all lose one game and as long as LSU doesn't jump them in the polls or Wisconsin build a larger lead in the computer rankings.