(NLTRN) 200 regular, river spot vs uncommon fish

ChicagoRy · #1 09-15-2007, 06:57 PM

Here's the hand.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1445
BB: t1555

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises to t90, BB calls t60 (pot was t120).

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t180, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t120, BB calls t120 (pot was t300).

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t420, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t325, BB calls t325 (pot was t745).

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1070, 2 players)
BB is all-in t1020.

---------------

Here are a few hands that may be relevant.

First one is from a game I played against him the night before this match. The second one is from earlier in this second match.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
SB: t1330
Hero: t1670

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB raises to t40, Hero calls t20 (pot was t60).

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t80, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t40, Hero calls t40 (pot was t120).

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t160, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t160, 2 players)
Hero bets t120, SB raises to t240, Hero raises all-in t1590, SB calls all-in t1010.
Uncalled bets: t340 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: t2660
Villain mucked Qc 9h 

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1690
BB: t1310

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t40 (pot was t80).

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t120, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB calls t80 (pot was t200).

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t280, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t190, BB calls t190 (pot was t470).

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t660, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: t660
BB showed Tc 3c

Let me give you a little background info on villain. He has played 250ish HUSNGs, 200 of them are 5 or 10 dollar games. More than half of the rest are 20 and 30 dollar regular speed games as well.

Once in awhile villain loses a 5 and tilts. He then plays higher and higher until he wins a match. The first night (the night of the Q4 I won above) he had lost a 5, 10, 30, 100 and then the 200 to me. He then lost a 500 and 1k before winning a 2k and stopping.

He had already lost a 5, 10, 30 and 100 when I sat with him in this 200.

He was extremely weak tight the first night I played him, and when I saw the match prior to this (his 100 loss) he seemed equally weak tight. He seems to be opening up a little bit and becoming more passive in this game. It seems like there was a pattern to what he did previously, almost like a robot was playing, but he's either being put in some new spots or he's opening up leading up towards this hand. I weight it to the latter heavily. Regardless I feel very strongly that villain overvalues a wide range of hands.

So what do you do in this spot and why? Any other questions about villain are welcome or my play on any other street, thoughts, etc.

I'll weigh in with results down the line.

Also I know some people know about this hand, so if you do please keep results out of the thread, but your comments about your view on villain are certainly welcome.

daveT · #2 09-15-2007, 07:13 PM

Obviously, he has a hand that he likes very much. He also feels like people are trying to run him over, so he is not responding with aggression. He is responding by calling more because he feels like he can spike any pair and beat hands like Ace high, and King high.

One thing to consider here is that there are broadway cards on the flop, which means that a) he isn't scared of the broadways and b) he is at best drawing to a flush.

The question is "did he backdoor" a flush. I wouldn't pass the possibility up, since it would appear more likely that he hit the queen and maybe back-doored into something.

I am also assuming that a shove is unusual for him, so my first thought is that he has it.

The question is can I lay this down. In theory yes, but in practice....

However, with your adventuring read, I would be more inclined to fold because he is less likely to make a move at this point.

ChicagoRy · #3 09-17-2007, 02:12 AM

No love?

Ty for reply daveT.

WutRUTryin2Hit · #4 09-17-2007, 03:18 AM

You have a set heads-up and 1 pot sized bet left, easy call. I have never run into a player in the 200s who I would fold this to.

1 specific hand rivered you, T9, and a lot of draws missed, and a flukey backdoor flush hit. Folding this is burning EV. Background info doesn't tell us much other than he though Q9 was the nuts there (I don't mind his play) and he does not shove with 4th pair on the river with a 4 straight on board.

This would be more of a decision with AQ or KQ, but I'm folding this never, losing occasionally and seeing rivered or slowplayed 2 pair or worse constantly.

I think you lost and posted this cause you said "i know he has me beat" as you called. Anytime you call a big bet with a strong hand, you worry about the hands that have you beat, and then when you actually do see one, you go "i knew it!" and second guess yourself. It's just your brain tricking you.

ChicagoRy · #5 09-17-2007, 04:28 AM

Eh since this isn't getting much action and I'm being berated I called and he had JT. I ended up losing the match running into AA twice during SAGE and losing 3 or 4 races (I forgot).

xSCWx · #6 09-17-2007, 05:16 AM

Not to be results oriented now that I've seen them, but there isn't really anything for you to be afraid of here except T9.

JJ/QQ is extremely unlikely with no reraise preflop. The only other imaginable hand that might play like this and beats you is Qrag of spades, but even with that it is extremely unlikely for them to play it like this.

jay_shark · #7 09-17-2007, 10:26 AM

Oh yes , I would call the river . You may lose here but you should be able to win at least 33% of the time .

WutRUTryin2Hit · #8 09-17-2007, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Eh since this isn't getting much action and I'm being berated I called and he had JT. I ended up losing the match running into AA twice during SAGE and losing 3 or 4 races (I forgot).

[/ QUOTE ]

?? Not berating, not me, sorry if came off that way, weird.

ChicagoRy · #9 09-17-2007, 05:45 PM

Yea guess not berating, but I hardly ever post hands and when I do it's not because of results or anything.

xSCWx, I think 88 is possible as is a backdoor type hand, Asxs, KsTs.

All in all not enough made sense for him to hold and beat me with but I felt I lost here around half the time so I called.

I think what is interesting is that he is a 5 dollar player, and if somebody is posting this from a 5 dollar game we're likely going to say "monster or bluff."

I can't imagine getting inside this guy's head on this play, what is he thinking?

Heir_Aparent · #10 09-17-2007, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think what is interesting is that he is a 5 dollar player, and if somebody is posting this from a 5 dollar game we're likely going to say "monster or bluff."

I can't imagine getting inside this guy's head on this play, what is he thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

these were my exact thoughts. this isnt the type of player who ever turns a pair into a bluff, especially not on a board like this(not that these type of fish dont push erratically sometimes- its just in this context not much makes sense). kinda blows my mind as well and TBH, in your spot, it would depend a lot on game flow for me. I'd need to decide if theres enough strange hands he can show up with here to make it a call but also what has just recently transpired in the match.

just from lookin at the hand/description i think its pretty close, simply because FFS what hand can he show up with bluffing here? a10 makes sense, k10 maybe too. since he has erratic tendencies i probably get sick and call.

like i said this call seems good, but i'd venture to say you may be losing here >50% of the time. but its hard to say even with the well detailed description you gave.