NLTRN 22 turbo - maniac shove on dry board

[ChicagoRy]

This is the third hand of the match. The first hand was a limped pot, he bet the turn I folded. The second hand I raise on button he folded. So stacks are even at 1500.

Villain's sharkscope is fairly interesting. He's played 89 2 man HU matches and has lost 2100 dollars. His average stake is 102 dollar though. Overall he's lost 4480 dollars in 138 matches. Looking at his recent results I see he has played only 2 man HU the last 8 matches, from 21s to 55s. He's 5-3 in those, but that is pretty rather irrelevant.

I have 23s in BB. Villain minraises to 40. I call.

Flop is 8s8c2d.

Villain bets 120. I call.

Turn (Pot is 320) 8s8c2d...3h

I check, villain shoves.


Is this an easy call for anybody? Is this a puke-call? Are people crazy to call this on the third hand?

Do you raise the flop here? I won't add why I called the flop and my play on the turn for now.

[Crispy Bacon]

I wait for a better spot

[Raiseren1]

Turn is tough spot. Once I would always fold here, but I am beginning to make some sick calls with decent succes. Anyway. I would bet turn here for 150, and if he moves over the top I am folding. As I played I would call if he your bankroll allows it (25+ buy-ins), because obiviously this is a big variance call, but still it is profitable because of his hopeless sharkscope results. On the other hand you should be able to wait for a better spot. I would estimate that you might win by calling here around 53-58% of the time. By folding and waiting for a better spot you might be able to win 60-65% of the time if he is a big donk. But $ hour should be more important than win rate. I call here.

[ChicagoRy]

My thinking here is he would never shove an 8. There is no flush, there is nothing he should be worried about "pushing" me out of the hand. The only thing that would worry me is 33-77, 99-JJish, with the latter being less likely. I don't think he would play this aggressive with a good PP though.

Also, I used to take a minraise as a sign of great strength or possible big strength, but my last few hundred matches it seems hands like Q9o, J6s are the hands that minraise from most of these types of players on the button. The problem with that is an 8 is definitely in that slight observation, but I'm not too worried about an 8 here.

My thinking was if he has a hand it's either 44-77 or A2. Otherwise obviously I'm thinking any two. For the record I called, but if that turn is anything except another 2 or a 3 I would have probably led out and folded to a raise.

I'll weigh in with results after a few more comments, but I thought it was an interesting take, and in these types of spots I usually just go with "pick a better spot" but I actually thought this wasn't that bad of one.

Also, I don't know if anyone will raise this flop, but I felt I would reserve raises on these sort of flops for hands I can more easily get away from.

Edit: the hand should read that I check called the flop, but I'm sure you guys understood.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
I wait for a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]
First of all thinking like this is dangerous if you dont want to be suck with a uNL type mentality for your poker career.

It looks very close to me ChiRy I think your good plenty here but I also think his range is wide open including hands like AA. I think its a fold but its very close, 3 was a very important card and without that Id definitely fold, given some more information like he has run a stupid bluff or overbet before I think the decision can swing either way. Also if you change the chip situation so that your getting 2:1 I think its a very easy call but given the bad odds its not a good call without info IMO even though in practice I probably call here a lot.

[ChicagoRy]

What's uNL?

[cwar]

microNL .25/.5nl and below.

[HokieGreg]

My first instinct was to fold, but would the villain really be making this kind of move with anything other than air or an 8 (i dont see him playing an 8 like this ever). Also A2.

It's only the 3rd hand so its not like hes just frustrated with your aggression and is playing back at you. Most players, even with high pairs, will slow down to some degree after you look him up on a paired flop.

I sack up and call and expect to see air, maybe A4/A5.

[HokieGreg]

So what was villains hand???

[ChicagoRy]

J9 or Q9, i forgot. I held and won.