NLTRN: TT OOP, flop line?

[jay_shark]

When you raise $730 in a pot of $400 means you need him to fold 730/(400+730) or ~ 64.46% . Considering the fact that a player will typically miss the flop about two-thirds of the time (if he holds live cards) means you have a marginal raise . Not to mention , even if you're behind , you have about a 12% chance of outdrawing your opponent .

A limp call may mean a lot of things . He may have some type of connector or maybe even ace-rag, king-rag . Either way , there is a good chance you get away from this play to make it profitable .

[ChicagoRy]

Shouldn't this flop hit more than the usual % of villain's hands? Draws galore and two high cards against a limper that probably limp calls with a lot of broadway + mid card type hands and probably a wide range of suited hands as well.

[ChicagoRy]

Also, you can raise less instead of more, but I don't like 200 here. Rather see 150 or a PF shove or close to a shove or something.

Someone that's calling wide here you're not going to want to see flops with TT for 30-40% your stack. With a different hand raising a lot would work better, but with TT against this player it's probably not close to the most EV play here.

[jay_shark]

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Shouldn't this flop hit more than the usual % of villain's hands? Draws galore and two high cards against a limper that probably limp calls with a lot of broadway + mid card type hands and probably a wide range of suited hands as well.

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Chicago , if anything you should encourage a player to call with an 8 or 9 out draw since you are making it incorrect for him to call .

The only hands you should be concerned about is if he calls with a jack or a queen .

[ChicagoRy]

Still not the best play by a long shot here.

[jay_shark]

Do you know your opponent well enough to bet and fold ?

It's not clear cut to say that betting and folding to a raise is better . Without information on villain we cannot conclusively determine which play is the best option .

I believe checking is weak and betting is difficult against an unknown . Shoving is the safe option , but as I said in my original post , you can bet and fold to a raise if you know your opponent well enough .

[ChicagoRy]

If we can assume he bets when we check any turn, calls with anything weaker than top pair and raises top pair hands, we can play this pretty close to perfect.

It sounds like we can almost assume that stuff. Would have to look at the HH to know for sure, but from OP's post it looks like this is what we're dealing with here.

[jay_shark]

It would be nice to make a three-quarters size flop bet and fold to any resistance if you have a solid read . However , even in this situation , you are getting close to the right odds to call the shove . If you bet $350 otf , you're getting 4.14:1 odds and you only need to win a little over 19% of the time .

I played around with pokerstove against top pair , and it showed that pocket tens wins about 13% of the time . Add some draws and some random bluffs and your total is close to 19% .

So again , betting three quarters of the flop and shoving are very close decisions .

[ChicagoRy]

If you raise to 150 preflop you're not going to be betting 350 on the flop.

Even raising to 200, why would you bet 350?

[Somekid]

Not sure if this affects what you're discussing, but this opponent would probably just call a flop bet with a queen, a jack, or air. So if we do bet on the flop, what kind of turn play can we take? betting again seems pointless unless it's all-in, in which case pushing the flop would've been better.