Another commerce 40 hand. Image play: King high river bluff?

[surfdoc]

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2. he essentially turns his hand face up on the turn and knows very well I know his hand exactly

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And yet this means he thinks you won't bluff?

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Well in a way yes. Checking behind here with AK or AQ to get to showdown is so standard that he knows that I know that he is calling a river bet. Therefore when I do bet it looks like I do so expecting/wanting a call. He can therefore fold since he now has figured out what I want him to do and he can do the opposite. Confused? Me too.

I think CDC may have said it better.

[Joe Tall]

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He's a Foxwoods player and I've played homegames with him. This is an excellent bet as he likes to make the "baby Dougie laydowns", nice hand.

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Who was it? Speaking of Dougie, the Mantis came out last night in the Wynn 30 game.

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I don't know his name but I've played that LHE freezout w/him at Mark's old house in CT. In fact, We played a hand against each other where I opened the button w/AQs, he 3-bet the BB, I 4-bet, he called. He c/r'd an undercard flop, I called, the turn bricked, he bet, I called, the river was a K, he bet, and I raised. He flipped over 99 and mucked and I showed the AQ.

[dcb777]

his name is Ronnie and he is a nice kid. Plays good at times, but his favorite phrase after getting called on the river is you win and open mucking. He can be super creative and is capable of bluff raising rivers with 8 high, but maybe not at 40-80 because his comfort level is 20-40.

[dcb777]

I like the bet. Ronnie at times plays two different games. If he is in joking around 3bet crazy mood I might even check call the river, but in this spot and considering he is playing good or "trying to play good" you might make him fold some A high hands or even a small pair (but maybe not).

I would have checkraised flop and led turn. If he called both of those I might have even fired the river to fold out AK and AQ.

[surfdoc]

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I like the bet. Ronnie at times plays two different games. If he is in joking around 3bet crazy mood I might even check call the river, but in this spot and considering he is playing good or "trying to play good" you might make him fold some A high hands or even a small pair (but maybe not).

I would have checkraised flop and led turn. If he called both of those I might have even fired the river to fold out AK and AQ.

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Yeah, this is definitely him. I saw him change gears but it was mostly between being tight and going on tilt and coldcapping 78s. He does have some game and some fearlessness about him though and I don't think he lost that at 40/80. I could tell there was some discomfort with the stakes since he kept talking about how he was up 1700 and now is stuck 1500 or whatever. He wasn't quite able to distance himself from the money.

My read was that he had a legit hand and was not looking to get involved with me HU in pots with a hand like 55-88 (he would probably coldcall those since the table was loose and we were pretty far off the button). I think that his range is pretty narrow and that he has me crushed or AQ/AK almost always on this flop. So although I would CR this flop at least 50% of the time, it won't accomplish much since he will always be seeing the river and often 3 betting the flop or raising the turn. Taking the line you suggest is just too expensive when you can narrow your opponents range down like I was able to in this hand.

[dcb777]

I agree. Good post Surfdoc if he is staying out of your way for the most part he will have you crushed here so your line makes complete sense. You also can get some extra action if you turn your straight playing it this way. If he goes on tilt you will know (seems like you already do).

[surfdoc]

He pauses and thinks and then says "I usually call down with this hand but I give you some respect." He then mucks and tells his buddy he had AK and then gets berated by his buddy who said it was a "horrible" fold.

[spino1i]

I like. This bluff works enough against AK/AQ/KQ/small pocket pair to make it worth it in my book. Its true theres a good chance that this bluff wont work, but even a 50% success rate makes this bluff very +EV.