Because I might be bored at work

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't have any time at work which sucked. You people need to stop coming to the hospital at 3 am bringing your kids in with colds. TYLENOL is your friend people.

A few points about this hand:

1. Nobody mentioned 3 betting the flop? Why not? Would 3 betting here be a mistake? I am pretty sure my hand is the best. I think they are both pretty likely to have pair/gutter type hands or worse aces. Agreed?

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.

3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'd be tempted to raise the turn and check the river UI.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't have any time at work which sucked. You people need to stop coming to the hospital at 3 am bringing your kids in with colds. TYLENOL is your friend people.

A few points about this hand:

1. Nobody mentioned 3 betting the flop? Why not? Would 3 betting here be a mistake? I am pretty sure my hand is the best. I think they are both pretty likely to have pair/gutter type hands or worse aces. Agreed?

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.

3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'd be tempted to raise the turn and check the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is way worse than calling turn. If you're raising the turn here it really shouldn't be for a free showdown.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't have any time at work which sucked. You people need to stop coming to the hospital at 3 am bringing your kids in with colds. TYLENOL is your friend people.

A few points about this hand:

1. Nobody mentioned 3 betting the flop? Why not? Would 3 betting here be a mistake? I am pretty sure my hand is the best. I think they are both pretty likely to have pair/gutter type hands or worse aces. Agreed?

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.

3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you give SB a wide handrange (and I think this is incorrect), you're getting an ok overlay (about 12% above fair-share 3ways) with BB in the pot but the big risk that you take is getting 3bet, which is catastrophic here: you have to call with tainted guterball outs, and you will often find a way to knock BB's weak pairs out of the pot as well, so you'll be getting yourself HU vs a draw fairly often.

The toughest part of this hand is putting SB on a handrange; I think in general this sort of player will have more weighting toward hands that are in a good spot here (AQ, KQ, occasionally slowplayed KK+, Axs (keep in mind 1/2 of the Axs hands here have very good equity here given their combodraw+2pr outs+chop outs), and the occasional ATs and AJs.

This isn't to say that you don't have the value for a raise, but more to say that the potential downside of raising (and being 3bet) is enough, given how often it will happen, for the raises value to be severely diminished.

Rob

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]


i think i'd be tempted to raise the turn and check the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is way worse than calling turn. If you're raising the turn here it really shouldn't be for a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to charge the BB for whatever 5-9 outer he may have, but at the same time i think SB may have KQ and have me beat. but the board is scary for him to go bonkers on the turn. meh. i dunno. i'm just calling the turn if i am HU with SB, but with BB in there i want the overlay.

[Scary_Tiger]

I play the same or 3-bet flop. I hate checking the river.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't have any time at work which sucked. You people need to stop coming to the hospital at 3 am bringing your kids in with colds. TYLENOL is your friend people.

A few points about this hand:

1. Nobody mentioned 3 betting the flop? Why not? Would 3 betting here be a mistake? I am pretty sure my hand is the best. I think they are both pretty likely to have pair/gutter type hands or worse aces. Agreed?

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.

3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'd be tempted to raise the turn and check the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is way worse than calling turn. If you're raising the turn here it really shouldn't be for a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, this is bad because any time you get a free SD you had the best hand anyway and missed a bet, right? And raising just opens you up to getting 3bet and led when behind and you probably never the get the cheap SD you're hoping for?

[Surf]

I didn't like the turn raise that much initially, but i think this:

[ QUOTE ]

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is spot on. When you pop the turn you are representing a big hand so there's no way villain can 3bet KQ (which is about as strong a hand as he can have) and if you get 3bet you are almost always drawing to 3 outs for a chop so folding is not a big deal.

Also, I agree that villain's most likely hands (if he's known for calling in the SB) are stuff like Axs, QJs, JTs, etc etc and the only hands that have you beat on the turn are JTs or slowplayed AA/KK.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once you don't get 3bet on the turn I actually like where you're at, there are way more worse aces out there than A9 or Q9 (for the tag). If the fish is a big enough cs to drag along with a 1pr hand then go ahead and value bet...if you can't value bet the river I'm not as keen on the turn raise.

Surf

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Well I didn't have any time at work which sucked. You people need to stop coming to the hospital at 3 am bringing your kids in with colds. TYLENOL is your friend people.

A few points about this hand:

1. Nobody mentioned 3 betting the flop? Why not? Would 3 betting here be a mistake? I am pretty sure my hand is the best. I think they are both pretty likely to have pair/gutter type hands or worse aces. Agreed?

2. For those who don't like the turn raise. Why not? It felt a little dirty to me also but I think the key point is that the SB will have a very hard time 3 betting any hand that he didn't 3 bet preflop with the exception of the nuts (TJ) since that board is so likely to be all over my range and my turn raise is super strong vs 2 players. The BB, well he can have a lot of crap but he sucks so I wasn't too worried. I really like a turn raise instead of a flop 3 bet since my equity can change dramatically on the turn and a club or jack would be pretty ugly.

3. Does anyone think the river VB is thin? I can't worry too much about running hearts but A9, Q9 are certainly possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'd be tempted to raise the turn and check the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is way worse than calling turn. If you're raising the turn here it really shouldn't be for a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, this is bad because any time you get a free SD you had the best hand anyway and missed a bet, right? And raising just opens you up to getting 3bet and led when behind and you probably never the get the cheap SD you're hoping for?

[/ QUOTE ]

i really don't think we are getting 3bet here unless we are murdered. I highly doubt villain has AA, KK, QQ, AK or AQ given his preflop play, and KQ has gotta be scared of that board. MAYBE he has JT. I personally think it is more likely he has KQ than AX, and with the other moneky in there i want him to pay on the turn.

[Apanage]

Maybe his understanding of poker theory is great.Not raising from SB with AQ to knock a bad playing BB out can't be a bigger mistake than making value raises on turn based on the fact that your opponent can't have a certain hand because he didn't reraise preflop. Deception is a great tool in some cases if you know that you're opponents put too much confidence in reads.

And in any case I agree with what you're saying about the flop checkraise. If we think that him not raising preflop is a sign of weakness doesn't the fact that he is checkraising the flop mean more strength than it usually would?

[Entity]

I have to run to a meeting but wanted to post my thoughts in the unfortunately-difficult-to-read AIM form, from a convo with Surfbullet:

Note -- surf is Surfbullet, not surfdoc.

[ QUOTE ]
[12:09] me: I think everyone who is saying villain "can't" have AQ AK and specifically KK-AA there is off.
[12:10] surf: hm
[12:10] me: that hand is weird because honestly, villain "can't" have many hands.
[12:10] surf: i tihnk AQ/AK are pretty much impossible
[12:10] me: I think AK is least likely
[12:10] surf: i don't think i've ever seen a tag CC AQ/AK in the sb
[12:10] me: I see it iwith AQ frequently
[12:10] me: vs an EP-ish raise
[12:10] surf: AA/KK is possible b/c of the recent thread
[12:10] surf: hm
[12:10] surf: i'd see it with AQ vs an UTG raise
[12:10] me: the problem is assuming he's a TAG, let alone a good one
[12:10] surf: yeah i do that alot :-\
[12:10] me: all we know is *think* he's a TAG
[12:10] me: maybe
[12:11] surf: true
[12:11] me: in the line of things it's probably 70% likely he's a tag
[12:11] surf: yeah
[12:11] me: and we have no idea what that means anyway
[12:11] surf: or rather, 70% likely that he acts in a rational way that we would expect, perhaps?
[12:11] me: right
[12:11] me: and if he's the sort to coldcall QJs there
[12:11] me: why would he c/r flop and bet turn when called in 2 spots
[12:11] me: same for KJs, KTs
[12:12] surf: i dunno
[12:12] surf: i just expect not-that-good tags to fire the turn once they've c/r'd pretty much no matter what they hold
[12:12] surf: y'know, for "fold equity"
[12:12] me: a) lol
[12:12] me: b) I agree to an extent
[12:12] surf: hehe
[12:12] me: c) I don't think those not-that-good tags who c/r QJs on this flop coldcall with it pre
[12:12] surf: hm
[12:12] me: I think they 3bet more often than they should
[12:13] me: and again
[12:13] surf: his stats don't seem to indicate that, though
[12:13] me: stats IMO, red herring
[12:13] me: and I think KQs can 3bet the turn
[12:13] me: er, will
[12:13] me: I should say
[12:13] me: not necessarily should
[12:13] me: but will
[12:13] surf: really
[12:13] surf: hm
[12:14] surf: well
[12:14] surf: i think 3betting w/KQ there is atrocious...but you may be right that he perhaps will
[12:14] surf: that said i also think KQ is a pretty unlikely hand for him to hold
[12:14] me: actually I think KQ and JTs are two of the most likely
[12:14] surf: really
[12:14] me: yeah
[12:14] surf: i ithnk KQ is pretty unlikely, given pf
[12:14] me: way more likely than Axs
[12:14] surf: thing is, BB is fishy
[12:14] surf: which many tags will take as an excuse to CC speculative stuff
[12:15] me: but not to c/r speculative stuff
[12:15] me: well Axs yes
[12:15] me: but again
[12:15] me: 2 combos of Axs
[12:15] me: one of them has good equity
[12:15] me: other is drawing very slim
[12:15] me: well
[12:15] me: actually not
[12:15] me: lol chop outs
[12:15] surf: hahah
[12:16] surf: well
[12:16] surf: my initial reaction was "omg turn raise = teh suk"
[12:16] me: the biggest problem I have with the hand
[12:16] me: is that everyone is taking a stance that the turn raise is ok
[12:16] me: then using preflop handranges to justify it
[12:16] me: and ignoring all data of all potential hands that could run counter to it
[12:16] me: I decided to do the opposite
[12:16] surf: but i've recognized lately that i've been missing value-raises that don't look like value-raises but are b/c i can use hand-reading to determine what's out there
[12:16] me: I allowed him to have QJs and such
[12:17] me: but also allowe dhim to have AQ but not AK
[12:17] me: and KK and AA but not QQ
[12:17] me: and gave him all Axs
[12:17] me: and you had 44% equity 3-ways
[12:17] me: *but*
[12:17] me: when you got 3bet you still had to call
[12:17] surf: why's that
[12:17] surf: if he only has AA/KK/JT?
[12:17] me: AA/KK/JT/AQ
[12:17] surf: ah
[12:18] me: and honestly KQ is a close 3bet here
[12:18] me: if everyone is saying fold to a 3bet
[12:18] surf: well
[12:18] me: and everyone is saying raise the turn
[12:18] surf: turning KQ into a 3bet /protection bluff
[12:18] me: no
[12:18] surf: is wayyyy more sophisticated than any of these guys are going to pull
[12:18] me: turning it into value also
[12:18] me: because BB will call with so much worse
[12:18] me: obv. he'll fold sometimes
[12:18] surf: i dunno that BB is going to drag along with like QT when he 3bets
[12:18] me: but if he has KQ
[12:19] me: I think he will probably 25% of the time, maybe a bit more
[12:19] me: your overlay is ok
[12:19] me: about 11% on a raise
[12:19] me: *if* he can have any suited broadway hand
[12:19] me: and plays it like this
[12:19] me: *and* any Axs
[12:19] me: but I don't think he can have quite that range
[12:19] me: Axs I think yes
[12:19] me: but QJs type no
[12:20] surf: i think he can have specifically QcJc
[12:20] surf: i don't think any QJs cr/leads
[12:20] me: 1 combo doesn't exactly change much
[12:20] surf: just that one
[12:20] surf: i know
[12:20] surf: i'm agreenig with you
[12:20] surf: sorry
[12:20] me: np
[12:20] me: and the big problem
[12:20] me: is even if you give him that huge range
[12:21] me: he'll still be able to 3bet you ~20% of the time
[12:21] me: because so many of his hands *have* to be suited
[12:21] me: so they are narrow in combos
[12:21] surf: which reduces their likelihoods
[12:21] surf: sure
[12:21] surf: we are working with a wide range of narrow holdings
[12:21] surf: which is odd
[12:21] me: off the top of my head I thought you were getting 3bet 1/4 fo the time on the turn
[12:21] me: yes
[12:21] me: it's a very odd spot
[12:22] surf: so
[12:22] surf: things that would have to change for the raise to be good
[12:22] surf: 1) his equity isn't terrible when we are ahead bc of chop outs and FDs
[12:22] surf: 2) we are crushed when reraised but have to call drawing extremely slim b/c of the gutshot
[12:23] surf: 3) the board is so busy (and his candidate worse hand so narrow) that there aren't enough worcse hands to call to make up for being 3bet
[12:23] me: I think that's about right
[12:23] me: most important IMO is #2
[12:23] surf: yes
[12:23] surf: i agree
[12:23] surf: it's tough b/c alot of this could change if we had some better reads on this guy
[12:23] me: oh #4 also, to an extent
[12:24] me: I think we can expect to collect bets on the river both when we hit, and more importantly when we don't and our hand is still good
[12:24] me: so some of that value vs hands like KTs
[12:24] surf: doesn't matter b/c when a 2 spikes he'll crying call?
[12:24] me: is actually collected on the river because our hand looks weak enough that we can expect much worse calls and overcalls
[12:24] me: yes
[12:24] surf: 2 / T
[12:24] me: no
[12:24] me: I mean a 2 hits
[12:24] me: sometimes he'll lead but often he'll check
[12:25] me: BB will check
[12:25] surf: right
[12:25] me: you will bet
[12:25] surf: we vb
[12:25] me: he will go goddamnit
[12:25] me: is he bluffing JJ
[12:25] me: and will call with a wide enough range that you don't lose full value on your turn bet
[12:25] surf: right
[12:25] me: and it allows BB to make one of those lolovercalls with Q8o

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunno if that's helpful at all as there are definitely counters to raising, enough that I definitely think it's close but probably don't like it here.

Rob