Post draw bet from the bb? 5CDL

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I'm making this one up to make the situation slightly clearer than what happened.

UTG limps, HJ calls, Button calls, sb folds.

You draw 3 to 66xxx and make trip 6's.


Utg draws 3, HJ draws 3, button draws 1.

Is this a bet?

Utg draws 1, HJ draws 3, button draws 3

Is this a bet?

Utg draws 3, HJ draws 1, button draws 3

Is this a bet?



I thought this was mostly a math problem of chances UTG or HJ make 2pair when button misses, but I don't have enough experience to judge peoples calling standards here vs a BB bet with a 1 card draw behind them.

[List]

In pot limit I usually bet with trips in any of those situations. I imagine it's the same in limit. You get payed off by a lot of two pair hands. You have to be willing to fold to a raise in certain situations.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I did bet it but I regretted it right away. I think there are only 7 hands that might call you here while you're ahead (J's-A's up and 222-555). And then you still lose at least 20% of those hands, also 222-555 would be a pretty unlikely draw for UTG or HJ. I think I messed up here, but I'm not certain since I haven't played enough draw to gauge other peoples calling standards.

[MarkGritter]

You need to be careful about your reasoning here. It's not how often you get called, it's how often you are ahead when you get called. Also, those "7 hands" are not all of equal probability, especially when compared to the hands that beat you.

Let's say somebody had a higher pair, like 88 to start. He'll make two pair 16.0% of the time and trips or better 12.7% of the time. If he calls (or raises) with all of them, the bet has some value, since you win 56% of the time he calls your bet. If he's tighter than this then the bet isn't going to be profitable.

If he had a lower pair then yours, a bet is definitely profitable because he'll call with trips. The combination of these two cases (bigger and lower pair) may turn out to be profitable--- if you can come up with a hand range you can work out a more exact answer.

A player with two pair to start only makes his boat 8.5% of the time. If he calls with just his top 10-11% of unimproved two pair starters you're still getting the edge you need. It is flush or straight draws that are more of a problem because they usually won't call if they miss. Again, if you can work out a hand range you can arrive at a more exact answer.

It's too late for me to work out the reasoning with multiple players, but I think on balance a bet is called for--- the possibility of picking up two bets makes it even more attractive to bet instead of check.

(On the other hand, if you think you can induce a bluff more often than you can get called with a value-bet, by all means check!)

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I think its definitely a bet without the button drawing 1 behind the players drawing 3. I think it's just too hard for people to call my bet sandwiched between me and the person who drew 1 in an unraised pot.

[DOMIT]

First off, just so that I understand.. is Hj the CO (I'm assuming short for hijack?)... just curious.

Anyway, I'd like to remind that, while the math is wonderful, and one of the things that make 5CD such a profitable game, don't forget table image, etc. If you're always betting trips into a 1-card post, people will start to toss 2pr's that they might have been limping with.

Situation, CO/button normally raises his AAs-up, but since there's only one limper, he decides to slow play. Since he didn't raise, ppl will put him on a draw; they might bet into him unimproved (or even improved) thinking that he'll just fold if he missed, and that they can comfortably fold to a raise. But this way, instead of just winning the antes, he's getting a bigger pot (say someone wants to "keep him honest" post and calls w/ just a pair hoping he was on a missed draw).

Any ho... here you come as the BB betting into him post. He might have expected a bet more from the limper than the BB. The BB has to go through 2 people OOP. And, if he's a playa, he might actually have notes on you (or my handy-dandy tracker, once I get it finished =)) ), and find that you will not bet less than, say AAs-up from the BB. Well, since he has two of the aces, he can pretty much fold.. even if he's wrong, he only lost a small bet.

I, personally, don't advocate trapping pre w/ less than a flush (straights can lose to a flush easy), why give free cards when people pay a raise way too often?

That said, I have no problem trapping post. I have found that when I bet from the BB or SB, it's like a fold fest (suppose I should try it more often..?), so I tend to trap more from those positions. Just had one today in PL.. 3 limpers and I'm in the SB w/ a gut-shot str. I just need a big blind post to have my odds.. I just have to be careful of other one-cards in case I get beat by a flush. I hit, and everyone 3-cards except the button, who 1cards. I checked. CO bet, button folded (yippee), so, I check-raised... blink, blink.. call. Beautiful [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I should never have been allowed to draw (ie someone should have raised), but then to call a check-raise from a 1card.. I just say "thank you" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I'd like to remind that, while the math is wonderful, and one of the things that make 5CD such a profitable game, don't forget table image, etc. If you're always betting trips into a 1-card post, people will start to toss 2pr's that they might have been limping with.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you should bluff occasionally. The solution for people folding to your value-bets it to bet more, not less. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I think I must have a horrible writing style because I'm getting a lot of comments that say things about the hand that didn't happen, so I'm going to re-write it.

I just came in on this hand in the blind, it's a new loose table I just opened. 1/2.

UTG open limped, UTG+1 limped, CO folded, Button limped, SB folded, I checked.

I drew 3 to a pair of 6's and hit 666xx.
UTG drew 3
UTG+1 drew 3
Button drew 1

I'm unsure if this is a bet. I'm thinking it probably isn't because the people who drew 3 are sandwiched between you and someone who drew 1. Even a bad player can tell you are showing a lot of strength. If the situation were reversed I'd have a lot of difficulty calling a bet with anything less than Aces up.

OTOH I think if I check and there is a bet I'm not sure if I can fold, but I expect to be beat most of the time. If I bet and get called I think I'll win slightly more often than checking and calling, but like I said I'm not sure either way.

So: B/F, C/C, or C/F ?

[DOMIT]

OK, the original post, to me anyway, sounded like you were just setting up a hypothetical situation in which you wanted advice... that was my read anyway and perhaps the way that others re'd :-??

Anyway, seemed like a good question.. sort of like diff from the normal, what should I do in <u>this</u> situation, instead, here is a situation, but differing parameters.. I guess my re was just to say let's extend the general a little further and don't look for a pat action/formula for how to play.

but, now u did ask the classic, what do I do in this particular situation.. maybe we/I confused you .. sorry for my ramblings [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Personally, on this situation, I'd check-call. Like you said, you'd be portraying strength. Let someone else "value bet" a good 2pair (and no, I don't think you can muck, not unless the 1card raises).

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I'd like to remind that, while the math is wonderful, and one of the things that make 5CD such a profitable game, don't forget table image, etc. If you're always betting trips into a 1-card post, people will start to toss 2pr's that they might have been limping with.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you should bluff occasionally. The solution for people folding to your value-bets it to bet more, not less. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I do find from my stats that the 'average' hand that I bet/raise post is trips [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I'm trying to bet more 2pairs and steal more in the blinds.. old habits and all that. But thank you for reenforcing that point [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]