*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[shipitkthx]

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CLE @ PIT -10

Wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole, to be honest.

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I actually like Pitt here. Pitt is 4-0 at home winning by an average margin of 24 points.

26-3 v Buffalo
37-16 v SF
21-0 v Seattle
38-7 v Baltimore

They already trounced Cleveland once this year IN Cleveland 34-7. I have no doubt that Cleveland is much improved, but this Pittsburgh team is underrated by many. DVOA has Pitt by 8 right now, but I expect that to go up to 9 once this Week's numbers come out. MOV has Pitt by 15.5

Pitt is leading the league in defensive passing ypg and passing ypa, which is Cleveland's strength. I expect Cleveland to come down to Earth a bit, against a very scary team.

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I really fail to see why you think Pittsburgh is underrated. They've been touted as being the "3rd best AFC team" all season. Look at who they've played:

The Steelers are 2-2 on the road against teams with a combined record of 13-19, one of which was week 1 in Cleveland in a game that was basically handed to them on a silver platter. With the condition of the Browns in week 1, you could replace the Steelers with ANY team in the league the Browns would have lost. Cincy...come on.

At home Pittsburgh's opponents have a combined record of 14-18. They beat up on a Buffalo team that started the year 1-4 and have just recently turned it around but were playing awful to start the year. San Fran is 2-6. Seattle is exactly what their record shows, a .500 mediocre team that looks different every week. And finally last nite against Baltimore. Baltimore is [censored] awful, 4 turnovers in the first quarter?? Pittsburgh's average starting field position during the first half was the 50 yard line.

So overall Pittsburgh is 6-2 against teams with a combined record of 27-37, and their 1st 2 wins of the year came against teams who have shown drastic improvement since the first 2 weeks of the season.

On the other side of the ball Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league since week 2. The only better offenses right now are NE, IND, and DAL. The Browns O-Line has been perfect, allowing only 7 sacks in the last 7 games. The Browns gave the Pats the best fight they had all year before IND, including the Pats only scoreless quarter all season before this week. Remember CLE had the ball with time left and only down by 10 before a fumble-6 gave the pats a miracle spread cover.

A final note. Cleveland wants this game...bad. The Steelers have been a pain in their ass since returning to the league, not to mention that its been their biggest rivalry for years. Cleveland embarrassed themselves in week 1 and now have something to prove.

The Steelers are getting 10 points in a rivalry/division game against a 5-3 team that has a score to settle with them? Tons of value in CLE +10.

[psuasskicker]

Nice post shipit...

Booked 2u Clev +10 -120, may add more. It's shocking how little respect Clev is getting.

- C -

[Webster]

Real betting

8-1 last week
5-4 week before

Back testing new system - yea - I know - systems never work but - Bridgejumper has since 1992 so . . . . . plus - this is DVOA stats - if you do not know DVOA you are not "into" football :-)

41-20 ATS in the DVOA system so far this year (called Balderdash)

For anyone who doubts I post them on my blog every week.

Minnesota - yuch - I'm a cheesehead - I think they will win but the spread should only be 2.5

Dallas - wins by more then 1

Indy - no let down

oakland - yea - Chicago IS that pathetic - Oakland WINS the game!

Seattle - crushes SF!

[TooTallT]

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Miami is at the point where their home-field advantage is nearly worthless.

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Based on what? That they're bad? Even bad teams play better at home.

Miami ML will be my biggest play this week (3u to win 4.4u). Buffalo is a young solid team, but no way are they 6 pts better than Miami on a neutral field. This line is way overblown because of a "looked better than it really was" outing against Dallas on MNF (a zillion turnovers by Dallas and no yards for Buffalo) and three wins against crappy opponents (Ravens, Jets, and Bungles). I bet on Buffalo against the Boys, Ravens, and Jets, but I love the fade in this spot.

[brendanb438]

Um have you seen Miami play this season? Buffalo is 6 points better than them on a neutral field. Miami at this point is like a dead dog. They really need to be buried before they start to stink anymore. I haven't made any play on this yet, Miami can't go 0-16 can they? If they get a win this season it will be against Cincy in the final week, not against the Bills.

[Rustjive]

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and three wins against crappy opponents (Ravens, Jets, and Bungles).

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What are the Dolphins?

[kyro]

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Um have you seen Miami play this season? Buffalo is 6 points better than them on a neutral field. Miami at this point is like a dead dog. They really need to be buried before they start to stink anymore. I haven't made any play on this yet, Miami can't go 0-16 can they? If they get a win this season it will be against Cincy in the final week, not against the Bills.

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Miami's last 4 games have been a 3 point loss to the Texans, a 10 point loss to Cleveland, an understandable shellacking to the team Bill built, and a 3 point loss to the Giants.

Miami is underrated. If they had managed to win at Washington in Week 1 (an overtime loss), or at New York (a 3 point loss in which they outgained the Jets by 150 yards or so) in Week 3, I can pretty much guarantee you your statement would be different.

Miami is coming off a bye. They are at most 4-4.5 points worse than Buffalo on a neutral field.

I still say the under is the only play here.

[TooTallT]

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Miami is coming off a bye. They are at most 4-4.5 points worse than Buffalo on a neutral field.

I still say the under is the only play here.

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These two statements are incompatible.

[kyro]

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Miami is coming off a bye. They are at most 4-4.5 points worse than Buffalo on a neutral field.

I still say the under is the only play here.

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These two statements are incompatible.

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I knew I was going to catch heat for it but I made it running out the door to work. I think Miami is the play here, but I think the under (for reasons stated above) is a far better bet.

[Rustjive]

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It's shocking how little respect Clev is getting.

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Consensus says 61.2% for Cleveland, 38.8% for Pittsburgh.

There aren't that many sharps in the world.