Four Winds 200NL Hand #3

[marchron]

All these hands came chronologically, so it's just a coincidence that they also come in increasing amount of mobnies won and also increasing amounts of stupidity displayed. This was the zenith, the apex, the pinnacle of duhhhh. Posting this is begging for an asskicking.

It happened immediately after Hand #2. Then I was second to act, here I'm UTG. "Smoker" from Hand #1 becomes the most relevant Villain here. I don't remember exactly how much he had at this point, but I'm in the $180 range and he can't have had much more or less than that.

Live 1/2

I have A6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and limp. Like seven people come in, including the blinds.

Flop: ($14) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Checked to me, I bet $5, get three calls, blinds fold.

Turn: ($34) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet $10, Smoker raises to $25, and even though the part where I make excuses to justify my stupidity isn't until later, I must stress now that I only called here because I wanted to get his stack on the river.

River: ($84) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, Smoker bets $50, I call because I'm a wuss and I don't want to get stacked by sevens full.

Showdown: ($184)
Smoker has K6o, MHIG.


KEY DECISION POINTS (actually, I think these are all of my decision points):
1. Preflop limp. Generally at this table, if the opener limped instead of raised, about 2/3 of the time it was a multiway limped pot; the rest of the time either someone made a ridiculously small raise to $7 or something, accomplishing nothing but sweetening the pot, or making a ridiculously large overraise to $25 with trash as a squeeze play (in fact, I stacked someone who did that with A9s and I made a brilliant read with AQs to commit him for the rest of his stack). With that in mind, good spot for a limp from EP with a suited Ace?

2. Flop bet. I felt like half-potting would be too much given that I wasn't the aggressor. I wanted either multiple calls or one dude to think I was FOS and raise me. I got the former.

3. Turn bet. Too small, and I realize that looking at it now. Can I now half-pot or thereabouts?

4. Turn call. I'm looking at a $15 raise into a $69 pot with ~$160 behind. Shoving is too much. Reraising him $40 more seems about right, as that would leave me with about $120 and the pot at $164, a good size for a river shove. However, I didn't want to telegraph that I flopped a boat by bet/3-betting and kill my action. Am I anywhere close to making sense, or should I have just shoved and hoped I had him coolered?

5. River check/call. Obviously I shouldn't be here, because one way or another I should have made the pot so big that a push is mandatory. But now that I'm here, is my call good?

At the table, I went headfirst into the tank while I contemplated Smoker's range here given his action thus far. I don't think he has a flush, because he would have picked an odd time to semibluff it. And I don't think he's brave or stupid enough to try ramming through a bluff with a pocket pair. So he's hit this board somewhere: he either has an A, a 6, or a 7.

If he has an A, on the turn it's either AK/AQ or A7/A6. Something lower or in the middle probably doesn't raise. On the river, AK and AQ check behind, so throw those out. There's also a very small chance he has a stupidly played AA.

Any 6 is in his range, but I don't know how many of those hands there are. Let's just set up with A6, 86, 76, 65 and 64.

Similarly, he could have A7, 97, 87, 76, 75, or the unlikely 77, but we can reduce that to just A7, 76 and 77 since the rest of them wouldn't take one off on the flop.

So 6x is still the biggest part of his range, but when the river gave 6x bottom boat, for him to bet into that when he has the option of checking behind either means he's just not afraid of the board pair of sevens, or he has one. After the river bet, I assigned 6x a smaller probability and 7x a bigger one, and took the cheap way out and called.

Let the ass-whoopin' begin!