*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[iggymcfly]

Not doing anything complicated this week. I'm teasing the Giants +2.5 and the Eagles +3 (just based on market values, a fair line on Philly is +2.5) for 2 units and I'm taking the ML on the Cards at -110 for 1.5 units since Pinny's got it at -125/+115.

[rush66]

AZ ML -115!!!!!!!!!!!

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee


Arizona -1.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan

The line started off at Detroit -1, where it stayed for about 12 hours, before somebody pounded the line and made it into Arizona -1. From there, the line has gone to Arizona -1.5. All the while, there have been bets pouring in on Detroit.

I think that there has been a public overreaction to the Lions dismantling of the Bills. A lot of things had to go right for them in that game for the score to end up the way that it did, and well...they happened. Going into a road environment, I think that they'll lose some of that edge. Plus, the Lions haven't been the best road team and so I expect their performance to dip. Also, I believe that they may go into this game a little overconfident.

But bottom line is the reverse line movement with about 75-80% of the bets on Detroit. Plus, when I first saw the line, I was like "What? Detroit is a 1 pt. dog? Obviously, the play is Detroit", which usually ends up badly for me. hah.

Chicago -3.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Unlike 96% of the country, I watched the Houston Texans/Oakland Raiders game last week. I saw firsthand Ron freaking Dayne put up over 100 yards on this defense. I saw the offensive coordinator of the Raiders completely unable to adjust to our star CB Dunta Robinson going out with injury. No in-game adjustments + pretty terrible running defense = a losing football team. Even with CHicago's woes, I believe that they can take care of business here in Oakland. The public being on this with me doesn't worry me quite that much, since the line moved the way you would have expected it to, from -3 to -3.5. Shame I didn't get that -3...

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First off, I would like to apoligize. I rarely visit this forum, and contribute even more rarely. However, every once and a great while, I spot a pick whose true line is so far off base I just need to post it, and it deserves its own thread.

Mortgage your house. Mortgage your kids. Take Dallas -1 this week vs. the NYG. It doesn't get any easier than this. I am flying out to vegas this week just so I can bet as much as possible on this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seem to remember posts like this in Week 2 about Cincy...that worked out great.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never posted about Cincy (or anyone else) in week 2 (or any other week), you must have me confused with someone else.

[nuSFwck]

Shoe,

He is suggesting that, in general, "lock picks" have a way of not working out the way they're supposed to.

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]
The public being on this with me doesn't worry me quite that much, since the line moved the way you would have expected it to, from -3 to -3.5. Shame I didn't get that -3...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a big deal, just a half point

[kyro]

can someone explain to me how the [censored] chicago scored 14 points in 2 minutes when i wasn't looking?

[kyro]

4-1 +2.51 on the afternoon which included a retarded cover by the Bears.

6-4-1 +1.328u total for the week.

Not bad for a complete amateur. I still think I got screwed by Chicago, and I feel my Vikings +6 should have been a no-play. Gotta learn to incorporate matches into my plays, but so far a decent week.

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
Shoe,

He is suggesting that, in general, "lock picks" have a way of not working out the way they're supposed to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood. From now on I will refer to these as the "Shoe in to win" picks. I hope some of you got in on some of that sweet Dallas action this week.