odds of some one flopping a higher set than you

[eliezerg3]

i know the odds of flopping a set around 12%, but what are the odds that someone has flopped a higher set than you? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[karlwig]

Interessting poll.

I guess if there is player A and player B seeing the flop, and the propability of flopping a set is 0.12, the propability of both flopping a set would be like 0.12 x 0.12 = 0.0144. That's 1.5%.

Now, 50% of those times you would flop a higher set, and 50% of the time you would flop a lower one (as it's impossible to share the sets). The chances are equal.

So that would be odds of 1.5/2 = about 0.75% chance of someone flopping a higher set when you flop a set.

(Of course it would be even lower as you can't be sure villian has a PP every time when seeing the flop.)

While I'm sure you have to count for other variables too, as hand ranges before the flop etc., this should not be too far off. But I welcome others to comment this math, I'm not 100% sure of this.

[grapabo]

I'm not sure how much knowing this information helps you.

If the flop has already come down and you've made your set and the opponent has already made a set, the event has already happened. What you would have to guage is how likely the opponent's play on the flop indicates he has a higher set. Of course, an overcard to your set would be necessary for the higher set, but other than that, pure random percentages for that won't help you at this point.

It may be relevant to determine the odds of your opponent making a higher set on the turn or river, if you put him on a higher pocket pair.

[uDevil]

Your question isn't specific enough to give a good answer. For instance, did you flop a set of Kings or a set of 2's? Is this heads-up or 10-handed? Do you want to make any assumptions about the range of hands your opponents would see the flop with?

A variation of this question comes up every so often in the Probability forum. This thread is an example.

[karlwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure how much knowing this information helps you.

If the flop has already come down and you've made your set and the opponent has already made a set, the event has already happened. What you would have to guage is how likely the opponent's play on the flop indicates he has a higher set. Of course, an overcard to your set would be necessary for the higher set, but other than that, pure random percentages for that won't help you at this point.

It may be relevant to determine the odds of your opponent making a higher set on the turn or river, if you put him on a higher pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but since OP included the odds for hitting a set when asking, I think he's more aiming for the theoretical propability of him and a random guy hitting a set at the same time, and at the same time villian having a higher set than his.

Of course the cards on the board matter, and if you have the nut set than you simply can't be beat etc., but I think that is besides the point of just knowing the numbers theoreticly speaking.

the question definately is a little tricky and can be understood a lot of different ways, though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[karlwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure how much knowing this information helps you.

If the flop has already come down and you've made your set and the opponent has already made a set, the event has already happened. What you would have to guage is how likely the opponent's play on the flop indicates he has a higher set. Of course, an overcard to your set would be necessary for the higher set, but other than that, pure random percentages for that won't help you at this point.

It may be relevant to determine the odds of your opponent making a higher set on the turn or river, if you put him on a higher pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but since OP included the odds for hitting a set when asking, I think he's more aiming for the theoretical propability of him and a random guy hitting a set at the same time, and at the same time villian having a higher set than his.

Of course the cards on the board matter, and if you have the nut set than you simply can't be beat etc., but I think that is besides the point of just knowing the numbers theoreticly speaking.

the question definately is a little tricky and can be understood a lot of different ways, though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: just clicked on the link by uDevil, it seems like someone has already done the math better than me.

The odds of two pairs flopping sets seems to be 1.02%, not 1.5% as I claimed. This is because when one set is already flopped, its only two more cards to connect to that other pocket pair, and therefore the propability gets lower.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]

The odds of two pairs flopping sets seems to be 1.02%, not 1.5% as I claimed. This is because when one set is already flopped, its only two more cards to connect to that other pocket pair, and therefore the propability gets lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I read OP, he seems to want the odds, given that he has flopped a set, that someone flops a bigger set (you don't need to consider the probability that the first player flops a set).

[eliezerg3]

sorry everyone, for not being more specific with the question. it was 2/5 nl cash game, and a four handed match up, with no one raising pre-flop. flop comes 10? 2? 6?, i have a set of twos. i'm under the gun, seat 4 is in, seat 7 is in, and seat 9 is in. i check my set. seat 4 bets $20, seat 7 calls, seat 9 calls, and i raise to $75. seat 4 folds, seat 7 calls, and seat 9 calls. i'm thinking pair of tens maybe, with good kicker, or two pair at best. next card is a blank. i raise $50, seat 7 calls, 9 calls. river comes blank again. i raise $100, covering seat 9, seat 7 folds and seat 9 calls, turning over a set of 10's. why wouldn't he have raised pre-flop with that pair?

[eliezerg3]

thanks for the help! i checked out the paragraph that came out of phil gordons book. (1 out of 100 times, someone will flop a higher set than you)but does he mean 1 out of 100 hands, or 1 out of 100 sets?

[zoso2010]

ya but when it happens your dead, trips are the hardest hand to read