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#71
05-03-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
[ QUOTE ]
Loud and clear? I think there's an 80% chance he's running absurdly good, a 10% chance something is up, and a 10% chance he's running weak/tight players over and actually beating the game. [/ QUOTE ] i knew what you were sayin, man. we'll see what the pvalue of his run is soon...i sent the data to TimM for fixing, when i get it back the first thing i want to see is how likely it is for him to have run this well given all the other tens of thousands of players in the game's numbers.... then i'll go and disect his play stepwise controlled variable by controled variable. yea, im a dork. -Barron 
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#73
05-03-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: DERB
Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.
Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that. Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands. Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100: Sigma/100 ---- Probability 15 ----------- 7.7e-9 20 ----------- 1.1e-5 25 ----------- 3.4e-4 30 ----------- 2.3e-3
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#74
05-03-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to. Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that. Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands. Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100: Sigma/100 ---- Probability 15 ----------- 7.7e-9 20 ----------- 1.1e-5 25 ----------- 3.4e-4 30 ----------- 2.3e-3 [/ QUOTE ] so for all intents and purposes, even the high STDEV #s are 0% probability (.0023 is still pretty damn close to 0 and i dont even think he plays enough hands and is crazy enough to have a 30bb/100 st.dev...thats just hard to accomplish given the # of hands he plays. HOWEVER< it may make sense because the curve of st.dev (y) to # hands played aggressively (x) would look something like a less extreme right hand side of a parabola...something like y=.5*x^2. this is the case because of the incremental addition of each hand would add less to your variance if you are playing few hands because you're just not playing enough hands to even have a variance...but as you play more and more hands, each addition hand will add proportionally more to your variance than if you were playing fewer hands because NOW you're playing so many hands that the probability of being up or down large amounts increases substantially....) well, ok, i've now convinced myself that he may actually have a st.dev well over 30bb/100...thats a huge st.dev....but it makes the probability of him running well fall within "reasonable" limits. -Barron
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#76
05-03-2005, 04:34 PM
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Re: DERB
RE: The lotto winner comment.
Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer. a 2+2 lottery winner We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys. -James
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#77
05-03-2005, 04:42 PM
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Re: DERB
i've only played very little, and done datamining at 30/60, but i'm pretty sure that i know guy you're talking about. i have a few databases with him on it, and he's been running VERY GOOD on all of them.
I don't like to believe that there is a lot of cheating going on at Party, but I have to admit that this guys' stats are a little bit suspicious. And if I was looking to support the assumption that he is in fact colluding, then there's a decent amount of evidence in his stats: -He has a very high W$WSF, esp for somebody with such a high VPIP. of course this could be sign of running well, but it seems strange that he's close to the same % in all 3 of my DB's. -He has a stange combination of REALLY high Went to showdown, and folded to river bet. Of course, this could just mean that he's got very good reads on players, and folds a lot when he knows he's beat on the end... but the thing that I find more convincing is that his W$SD when just calling on the river is pretty damn low. so this would go against the theory that he just folds when he knows he's beat. -his W$@SD after bet/raised turn is very low... suggesting he could be in a raising war with somebody else, trying to push other players out. I'm not saying that this is at all conclusive, but it does seem that if somebody were colluding, they would have stats similar to this guys. if he's in there with another guy betting/raising to knock the other players out on the flop and turn, then he'd have very high Aggr factors, and very high W$WSF which he does. Also, many on here are talking about how much he "draws out", and if he were doin colluding, then of course when they run into somebody with a real hand who can withstand all the betting/raising, the pot will have gotten so big that he'll need to continue and draw to his miracle card. also, his W$@SD when calling a river bet would be low, since he'll have a really big pot with great odds to try and call for one bet, even though his when folded to river bet is high, since only the one with the better hand (him or his partner) would need to call a bet at the end.
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#78
05-03-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] 41.65% mine is 41.98... sick i tell you, sick. -Barron
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