#11
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Re: oh no. Not AA again!
I don't think I could have thought this hand out quickly enough to count my outs and make a mathematical decision in the heat of battle.
When you have an overpair like this, it's just important to remember than "any pair" on the board could give you the best hand if you are up against 2 pair. The Q could give you a share of the pot (or even the whole thing) and you could still actually be ahead. After the fact, I think the fold was OK because I think you are up against AQ a disproportionate amount of the time given that your PFR was called, but not re-raised. In the heat of battle I think I would have called. |
#12
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Re: oh no. Not AA again!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Please tell me I did the right thing. [/ QUOTE ] Your pfr was a "right thing," as was the bet-out on the flop. After that, let's see: It's pretty unlikely that you're up against a set, as KK/JJ/TT usually get 3-bet preflop. OESDs, two-pair and TP + OESD type hands are the most likely holdings for your opponents. So, your ace outs are likely hurt, let's cut them down to .5. Your queen outs, similarly, might not be there, and might just make you a split if you do hit one, so let's call them 2. And, two more outs for your outs against two-pair hands that don't make trips or better when the board pairs. So, call it 4.5 outs. So, you're getting 13.5:2, 6.75:1 when it gets back to you, and at (47/4.5)-1:1, 9.4-ish to make a hand. I don't mind this fold, but I'm not sure I make it in the heat of battle. fwiw, you might make the Results-Oriented Hall of Fame with this one. [/ QUOTE ] You forget to add that there is also a possibility that here has the best hand right now. Soneone could also be raising with a Q + pair, just to name a possible holding. [/ QUOTE ] I think the highlighted portion covers everything except the "best hand" part, and I think with this action on this board it's safe to assume you're up against at least one better hand. Unless both of your opponents are nutbags, of course. |
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