$25 99 battles the shortstacks

[Bavid Denyamine]

spite call

[bozzer]

ok it seems there isn't much of a consensus here, but not many people like raising pre.

i'll explain my thinking:

i think most of the time when i raise (90%?) the btn gets out of the way, and the sb either folds, pushes or calls, all of which are good for me. am i correct in that assumption?

does the presence of btn make raising go from presumably +EV to ?/-EV? my thought at the time was that it didn't, so i raised, but was not happy with the call.

have we got odds to call pf for overpair value?

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I like a fold because to assume its ahead of both ranges seems optimistic to me.

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well it's likely we have the best hand preflop... whether their calling ranges if we raise it up will be so strong that raising is no good is another question.

on the flop, people seem split. someone said call for set value and fold flop, others say call given odds. i think we've got easily good enough odds vs SB, but what about BTN? should we just call because pot is protected, or should we shove to protect? or does BTN mean we might have to put too much in behind so we have to fold to the SB shove?

[corsakh]

Instacall wtf, but I try getting all in preflop.

[toddxlogan]

Instacall, dont think its close, and I think the pf raise is goot. Dont really see any convincing point to shoving here, CO is NOT folding a better hand...maaaaybe TT I guess. But thats a tiny portion of his range, and it just seems dumb.

If CO shoves behind our call I probably fold - Halfstack shorty players are usually too dumb to spot a good postflop squeezing situation and it probably means you are beat.

If CO overcalls...hmmmm.... meh, see a turn, play some poker. Not a fun spot but your decisions here aren't particularly + or -EV.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall wtf, but I try getting all in preflop.

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did you even read the HH/my questions?

1. i do attempt to get it ai preflop - should i have shoved? 2. instacall flop > shove flop? presumably also call btn shove just slightly less instantly?

edit: cheers todd, excellent response.

[corsakh]

I have to get used to this converter, did not even notice the calls, thought it was HU. Ye whatever, flops dont get much better for 99. I am all in here.

[Profish2285]

Pre flop it got raised and min 3 bet to us. If villains had full stacks we could call for set value hoping the original raiser doesnt 4 bet it I guess. I think if we 4 bet here we narrow down their ranges that much more. How can you assume 99 is ahead of their range if they call your 4 bet? Like I said, it seems optimistic to me. I like a fold because no matter how this turns out, there is not gonna be a really good flop for you if it doesnt contain a nine. It is going to be difficult to navigate this flop if you get called in two spots which could easily happen.

[dpis]

i really like this analysis. i think it all really comes down to whether op is a looser or nittier player. i personally like the preflop raise, it would fit my style as well, but i can see the nittier side that would fold and i think there are good reasons for that if thats the style you play.
i also like the call of the sb's push, and see what co does. although i might be inclined to call his push depending on timing, odds and such (i hate preflop minraises and would like the chance to bust the donk if it presented itself).

[bozzer]

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if we 4 bet here we narrow down their ranges that much more. How can you assume 99 is ahead of their range if they call your 4 bet?

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note that EV when called = (chances of winning * pot size) - cost of action

e.g. .40*$7.5-$2.5 = +$.50

so we don't have to be 'ahead' (>50% pot equity) when called to be +EV.


just a little nitpick, not saying your analysis is wrong necessarily.

i'll post results in a sec.

[bozzer]

results: i flatted the SB shove, so did BTN.

turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], i check BTN shoves, I call. river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], BTN's got A T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], SB has A2o gg all.

thanks for the comments.