Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Flop

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Your best opportunity to win the hand is RIGHT NOW.

Your best opportunity to avoid losing large amounts of your stack on later streets is RIGHT NOW.

MJ in the small blind is not going to check-raise you with another player left to act, without a very strong hand, out of position.

By betting now, we find out just how strong both of our opponents are. If either of them calls or raises, we can avoid losing a larger portion of our stack on later streets. Essentially, I'm investing 1000-1200 on a continuation bet to try and win the 2K pot, but I'm also doing it to SAVE chips on later streets.

If you just check and you hit a Jack or Ace on the turn, how can you know it's any good? Especially if your opponents come out betting into you. Now you have no idea if they have a legit hand or just sense weakness. And if they did hit a monster on the flop, or hit their draw on the free turn card that checking gives them, then you might spend a LOT more than the 1,000-1,200 chips you pushed out on the flop.

You have position, you have momentum, take advantage of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you keep obsessing over saving chips for later streets? If the turn blanks and someone bets we are probably just going to fold. We are not in some huge danger of losing a bunch of chips later in this hand.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you keep obsessing over saving chips for later streets? If the turn blanks and someone bets we are probably just going to fold. We are not in some huge danger of losing a bunch of chips later in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, let's say that your opponent(s) are on any of the following hands:

10/J (suited, unsuited, perhaps the CO limped with this and closed the action by calling the raise)

K/Q (suited or unsuited)

8/8

If we allow a free card, let's say our Jack hits the turn. If any of the above hands are out, we could get ourselves into trouble. Or, let's say our opponent who checked with an underpair gets a free card and hits a set.

There's more to "winning the hand x% of the times" to make a continuation bet profitable. It's not just about trying to take the pot down now. It's also about defining your opponents committment to this particular pot, and saving yourself chips on later streets.

If you continuation bet, and your opponents don't go away, you can get away on a later street without going broke or losing more than the extra 1-1.2K chips you invested in a continuation bet.

Let's say you hit your Jack or Ace on the turn, if you're beat, your opponent(s) might bet and you might call. Or they might check-call your bets, allowing you to put more money in on the turn and/or river.

There are "implied" bets in this hand when the turn card comes. I don't like allowing a K/Q to hit the Jack that makes us stay with the hand, nor do I like giving a possible underpair a chance to hit a set for free. And why give A/Q a shot at sticking around?

[Sluss]

My original thought when I read this flop was that I would be checking behind. Figuring that MJ will bet out at any turn. Then if the CO calls, I muck. If the CO folds, I would consider one of two lines, either raising him off of his hand on the turn or folding if it was some sort of scare card on the turn. I like the idea of some pot control in a deep stack situation with two tight opponents.

I do like Everett's point. The only hands I would think MJ is CRing here are 99 or 1010. I know he can be tricky, but he is the kind of player that likes to be tricky mainly in position. I don't think he would CR with air with that big stack still left to act and if he does CR and CO pushes he is in one nasty spot. So if he has a hand he wants to CR it is probably a big set.

So if he is ahead it is costing me less to find out by betting here rather than finding out when I pop him on the turn. So a 1100 bet here acomplishes either taking down the pot or letting me know just where I am. Folding to a CR. On a CO cold call my plan would be to attack on the turn.

If I'm cold called by MJ I soil myself and fold to his turn bet, where he proceeds to tell me "Kid, I had nothing, but I smelled that stench coming from your pants."

[fnurt]

We seem to have shifted to assuming the pro is weak-tight, in the sense that his idea of how to play a good hand in the small blind is to flat call a raise out of position, and then to fold without a peep to the inevitable continuation bet unless he nails the flop. My expectation is that a good player who voluntarily enters a raised pot does not just go down without a fight.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
We seem to have shifted to assuming the pro is weak-tight, in the sense that his idea of how to play a good hand in the small blind is to flat call a raise out of position, and then to fold without a peep to the inevitable continuation bet unless he nails the flop. My expectation is that a good player who voluntarily enters a raised pot does not just go down without a fight.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right, because all pro's will check-raise with air, out of position into a tight, limping CO, early in a tournament.

We can't know if we hit a Jack or Ace on the turn if it's any good. If we hit a club, then we're left chasing one card to the river for our draw.

We need information now, and we have a slight chance of taking the whole pot down without further conflict. It's worth the "risk" of 1K chips to try and take the pot now, and to get information on our opponents.

If you hit a Jack or Ace on the turn, and your opponent(s) come out swinging, what is your battle plan? Call them down? Raise them and face a possible re-raise, costing you more than 1K that you could have invested on the flop?

If you hit an Ace or Jack, and were already beat or are now because they hit their draw free, you may spend more than that 1K through to the river, on a losing hand. You lose less by betting, and win more in the long run I believe.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
We need information now, and we have a slight chance of taking the whole pot down without further conflict. It's worth the "risk" of 1K chips to try and take the pot now, and to get information on our opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need information. I know I am behind. I could be a little behind or a lot behind. If I bet 1K and am called, I still don't have an answer to that question.

You only put 600 in, got 2 callers, and missed the flop. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

I think people are too focussed on how to win this pot. You don't have to win every pot. I think you are spewing chips making a continuation bet into 2 players in this situation.

If you want to win this pot, you need to play aggressively, using position and momentum. You can bet out fairly strongly now. You can also bet the turn or raise if someone bets.

[stokken]

This could turn into what Harrington refers to as "the dark tunnel bluff", One keeps stabbing at the pot until commited and end up loosing all your chips.

1.What is apperently good about the flopp?
It sure didnt help much-got the backdoor and overs.It may not have helped any one else
2.What is apparently good about the action?
We are checked too.
3. What has taken place so far?
A limp that was somewhat strange from a big stack.
A raise from us, pretty standard one. A call from a good player, and co called.

What worries me is Sb call. He is taking 1:2 and the risk of Co coming back over the top.
What level are we on here "I think that u think that I think..."?

He knows that it takes a big hand just to call here, and he knows that we know.
He will be out of position for the reamining of the hand. His check is troubling me.
What is his range then? AK-AQ,KQ, QQ-TT 99-55?, Broadways-anyways he wants to see a flopp and he called a raise and given the impression he fears no reraise. Could be a good set up for a play too.

When they both check, I am leaning towards Co being weak or intimidated by Sb check.
They could both be waiting for our cont bet and then fire the barrel.
Why is co not betting? Was he planning on a move repping sp AA-KK which SB has put him off, did he miss the flopp completely, is he monster strong. Am I seing ghosts?

The flopp is the drawing kind though and for the time being sets are possible,one orw to pairs and str8 draws. And all players are aware of that.

Next what have the two other players put us on, what is our range in their mind?

We didnt seem to fear a raise from either blind nor co. But made a standard raise IMO.

I think we are all the wiser, the raise accomplished little.

Any escape route involves runner runner at minimum cost, hardly likely.
I favour checking behind, there are to many pitfalls here.
But if I didnt I would take 1 stab and be done with the hand if not sucsessfull, I bet 1/3-1/2 pot , which would then have to take it down 30-50% of the time to show profit and it looks ok, will cause some pondering. If reraised it is all very dangerous water-is it a move, have we run into real strenght? I would think alot about how to respond to a reraise, I lean towards letting go and wait for better spots. The pot would sure look better in my stack though. If just called I hope for a free river.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We need information now, and we have a slight chance of taking the whole pot down without further conflict. It's worth the "risk" of 1K chips to try and take the pot now, and to get information on our opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need information. I know I am behind. I could be a little behind or a lot behind. If I bet 1K and am called, I still don't have an answer to that question.

You only put 600 in, got 2 callers, and missed the flop. What's wrong with cutting your losses?

I think people are too focussed on how to win this pot. You don't have to win every pot. I think you are spewing chips making a continuation bet into 2 players in this situation.

If you want to win this pot, you need to play aggressively, using position and momentum. You can bet out fairly strongly now. You can also bet the turn or raise if someone bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cutting your losses? What is wrong with you people? You KNOW you're behind because a limping CO and an out-of-position SB called your pre-flop raise and checked to you on the flop?

Let's say one opponent has K/Q and another has 8/8. You are ahead of the K/Q, and the 8/8 might have trouble calling your bet with two overcards on board and only a runner-runner draw to the idiot end of a straight.

So, you check this flop. Now, an Ace or Jack hits the turn, how do you plan to proceed when your opponents bet?

How do you plan to proceed when your opponents check-call?

How do you plan to proceed when your opponents check-raise?

What if an 8 hits on the turn, giving one of them a set but you an open-ended non-nut straight draw?

What if you hit a flush draw on the turn but are bet into?

Checking is wrong on this flop, it's not even close.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]

Checking is wrong on this flop, it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]


The fact that probably more than half of the people, including smarrter people than me, have said the checking is better, i don't see how you can say something like that.

Both sides have decent arguments.

I like what fnurrt just said, about how we're suddenly making MJ weak-tight... You guys are making it seem like if he didnt just hit his set, that he's out of here... i really don't think he's going away that easily.

betting the flop i can't see taking it down now.

I think checking gives you an opportunity to win the hand, while at the same time, risks losing more of your stack. I think you should be worrying less abuot giving them free raws, and more concerned abuot giving our own hand a free draw.

[Lloyd]

The next decision point in this hand can be found and discussed here.