Daliman's Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 9

[Daliman]

Going to 3 teamers and up from here on out until my "situation" gets straightened out.

GB +2/+8
SD -7.5/-1.5
SEA +1.5/+7.5

1 3-team teaser at Bodog, 300 to win 540.

Piggybackers are not on this week, btw.





(edited to correct week 9 vs week 10)

[Schwatt]

Buffalo is +1.5 at Bodog too. The SD true line is actually -7, so I'm curious of that pick considering they are also a road fave.

Wouldn't one of the +3 big juice games(Denver,Houston) be a better choice here?

[domolm]

you question the messiah?!

[psuasskicker]

Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off?

Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately).

Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6).

So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off?

- C -

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off?

Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately).

Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6).

So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

That's up to you, but to me, a wong is a wong. Obv it is far more likely you are wrong than they are.

[kordoISback]

(419) San Diego Chargers -1½ Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (420) Minnesota Vikings


does that mean that changers need to win by 2 points or more? and i win?

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off?

Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately).

Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6).

So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

That's up to you, but to me, a wong is a wong. Obv it is far more likely you are wrong than they are.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is troof! I was a little worried about some of the games two weeks ago, but just bit the bullet and did it and it turned out very nice.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey, do you guys still wong even when you think a line is way off?

Example this weekend: Clev -1.5 I think is pretty far off. I figure them to be a 3 to 3.5 point fav over the Hawks (and have bet that appropriately).

Wong would say bet Sea +7.5 here. But obv if I think the line should be Sea +3 the game doesn't have wong value (especially since the line would only move +4.5 from my "fair value", not +6).

So in this situation would you normally continue to wong Sea +7.5, or would you lay off?

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

That's up to you, but to me, a wong is a wong. Obv it is far more likely you are wrong than they are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like it may be worth exploring a bit more. I completely understand the idea that I'm gonna be more wrong than they are. But there are gonna be times where you feel the line is wrong, and that's why you're betting.

Next question...what happens when a bet isn't a wong and public/square money pushes it to a wong? Has anyone explored the profitability of when this happens?

- C -`

[rsigley]

[ QUOTE ]
Buffalo is +1.5 at Bodog too. The SD true line is actually -7, so I'm curious of that pick considering they are also a road fave.

Wouldn't one of the +3 big juice games(Denver,Houston) be a better choice here?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, went with those 4 (gb, denver, houston, seattle)

bodog tends to give crappier lines on favorites which is why its -7.5 too compared to -7 everywhere else

posted it yesterday but i think that thread got deleted

[mogwai316]

I'm not finding Buffalo +1.5 anywhere. sbrlines shows that Bodog has it, but they give me +1 when I log in there, so they must have started giving me a different line.

As of now I've just got GB +8.5 / SEA +7.5.