AA waits till turn

[acehole60]

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think about what BB would donk and act accordingly. I wouldn't be to happy about my hand here against a decent player. Twopair, straight, SD, FD and sets is in his range. If I raise it's because I hope BB reraises and pushes UTG+1 out of the pot. But I would just call flop and reevaluate turn. I don't think I'll raise anywhere in this hand if the board doesn't pair or if I hit a set.

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wow, really? do others agree with this?

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Definitely not. I have the best hand an overwhelming amount of the time. I think my dillemma is whether to get bets in on the flop or on most turn cards.

[Gurravasa]

Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment. Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot. If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw. Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

[acehole60]

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Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment. Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot. If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw. Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

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Dude, I have the nuts until some of them proofs otherwise (e.g. puts in a lot of action) - I'm raising somewhere.

[Tryptamean]

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Without a read that BB is a very bad player I think we must give some credit to his donk here. He knows that no overcards will fold and still he donks. When UTG+1 calls we have a overpair in a multiwaypot with a drawy board. A raise on the flop gives no protection it just builds the pot and I don't think we have equity to raise for value on this flop even if we have the best hand at the moment.

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?!!? dude, this isnt omaha, best hand=value

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Also UTG+1 will call 1 SB for sure if we raise and then we just drag him deeper in this pot.

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this is a good thing
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If we let BB bet again on turn UTG+1 will have worse odds if he's on a draw.

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo

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Depending on what card comes on turn and how the action goes I can see a raise on the turn but there is a lot of turncards that you don't want to see.

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exaclty, thats why u get ur value now with the best of it

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Another benefit of not raising flop is that if BB is bluffing or betting a pair less than TP we kill the action. If he has a good hand (better than our one-pair) why give him the chance to c/r on turn? When you have aces on a board like this and ther is a bet and a call in front of you you must think a little longer than that you have aces and must raise. What can they have? Can you protect your hand? How do you extract value from worse hand and don't loose to much against better hands, How do you play turn if a scary card comes etc etc. An overpair is a strong hand but in a multiway hand on a drawy flop with action up front you must start playing poker.

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those are mostly legit considerations, but we pass up hella value by not getting a raise in somewhere, and the best place is on the flop

[Gurravasa]

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?!!? dude, this isnt omaha, best hand=value

[/ QUOTE ] You need more than 33% equity to raise for value and the combination of draws and made hands villains can have makes our equity lower than 33% in this situation. If OP is right that UTG+1 can have ATC I would estimate our equity to about 25-30% on the flop.

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this is a good thing

[/ QUOTE ] With a single pair playing one or two opponent is a huge difference. The risk of losing the hand is much greater against two than one opponent. You're gonna win more if your hand holds up against two opponents but your aces will get crushed more often against two opponent. If you had a set you're right that we want him to stay, but we only have an overpair that any small 2-pair can beat.

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo

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If he don't thats not bad, that probably indicates that his hand is not very strong or that he donked a draw. Now we can act according to that information.

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exaclty, thats why u get ur value now with the best of it


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If we had more than 33% equity yes, but against a decent player in BB and ATC in UTG+1 we don't.

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those are mostly legit considerations, but we pass up hella value by not getting a raise in somewhere, and the best place is on the flop

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That depends on villains donking range and if we have indications that villain likes to donk weak hands we could have equity enough to raise, but against two players that both put money in on the flop your aces are not as big favourite as you would like to think. If the action was bet-fold or check-bet it's a different story...

[Tryptamean]

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You need more than 33% equity to raise for value and the combination of draws and made hands villains can have makes our equity lower than 33% in this situation. If OP is right that UTG+1 can have ATC I would estimate our equity to about 25-30% on the flop.

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this is wrong and everything you've said is based on this faulty assumption. put some ranges into stove if you dont believe me.

[Gurravasa]

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this is wrong and everything you've said is based on this faulty assumption. put some ranges into stove if you dont believe me.

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You should be careful with stating whats wrong or right in a hand analyzis. You don't know villains donking range and I don't claim to knów it either. If he's a good player he should have something since it's a good spot to donk a set or twopair and a terrible spot to donk top or middle pair. In my posts I have said that I assume he's a decent player and therefor I rule out hands like MP,BP and air.

This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

[Tryptamean]

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This is how my stove came out:

Hand 0: 31.021% 30.82% 00.20% 2124016 13600.67 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 22.672% 21.93% 00.74% 1511018 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K8s-K4s, Q9s-Q7s, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 2: 46.306% 45.56% 00.74% 3139594 51282.17 { 77-66, 33, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o, K7o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

We have better equity than I estimated, but it's hard to put the limper on a range. If we put his range to ATC as OP says our equity rise to 35%

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yep, fairly high, even if we are always only up against flush draws, oesd, and pairs+... if we add in all the gutters, unimproved overs, Axo hands, our equity gets much higher, which is more realistic imo... UTG+1 will also be peeling (and calling a raise) on the flop with a lot of hands that are drawing dead/almost dead against us.. those same hands wont put any money in on the turn most of the time.

[chrimill]

I just ran a poker stove where i gave UTG+1 ATC and BB all the reasonable hands that would connect moderate to good with this flop,(i.e. A7, pocket pairs 33-99 and all the low connectors that would now have two pair, pair+gut) and we have a 51.2% equity. This assumes he would slowplay a straight, adding a flopped straight into the mix changes our equity to 42.3%, still good enough to raise if UTG+1 literally has ATC(which is probably not the case). So I believe that the answer as to whether you should raise the flop depends on what you think the BB's range is, if it includes all hands that connected well with the flop wait until the turn and re-evalutate based on the action. If it is skewed more towards hands that connected moderately, i.e he is betting all one pairs, two pairs, and draws and slow playing monsters(sets and straights) then a raise is definitely in order. Put another way, since you can't eliminate UTG+1 with a raise and you can't reasonably put him on a hand use the BB's betting range as a guide for your actions.

[DrVanNostrin]

Not waiting 'til the turn here would require special read/history for me.

Another consideration is future hands. You'll usually have wiffed this flop and will be peeling with overs/backdoor draws. If you pump it on the flop everytime you have an overpair your flop action gives your hand away. Against observant players this results in being outplayed in future spots like this. There are two ways around this:
1) Raise the flop with overs sometimes
2) Wait for the turn with overpairs

In my experience 1) results in being called down and losing a lot.