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#11
09-25-2007, 10:37 PM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] IMO, I think TT and 99 could be played this way. [/ QUOTE ] What hand could TT posibly get value from? You realize betting this river w/ TT is a bluff, right? [ QUOTE ] Much less likely, but still possible, an underpair to the board. [/ QUOTE ] Something like 44 is a HELL of a lot more likely than TT, because 44 folds out a ton of better hands, whereas TT has more showdown value and folds out less hands which beat it. [ QUOTE ] The A makes a flush somewhat less likely, since it would mean that Villain called preflop and then on a paired board with a non-nut flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Why should he fold the flop w/ any flush draw? (he shouldn't) [/ QUOTE ] Not all players, even halfway decent ones, adhere as rigorously to the bluff/value bet dichotomy as the majority of the posters on this forum. In addition, river bet/don't bet when checked to decisions can be endlessly analyzed (if your opponent is on the 1st level, he'll think this, the 2nd, he'll think the opposite, the 3rd, back to what he thinks on the 1st, ad infinitum). For example, if a thinking player knows you'll fold QQ here (which is what you're advocating), then he'd bet TT all day long, because QQ is a decent chunk of your range with this line here. Moreover, there are many players who will bet when double checked to unless they have a good reason not to bet. I think TT and 99 are less likely to bet the river than an underpair, but much more likely to call the flop c-bet. While I agree that Villain shouldn't fold a FD on the flop, there are a substantial # of players who will say I'm not drawing to the nut flush, plus the board is paired so I'm not necessarily drawing to the winning hand, plus I'm probably only getting to see 1 more card from this EP raiser, so I fold. 
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#12
09-25-2007, 10:50 PM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
It seems to me that just about every assumption you have regarding this hand is utterly wrong.
This isn't about levels, we aren't playing ourselves HU, we are playing someone who has tendencies, like everyone does. We know what they are. Choosing to ignore them because of a fear of being "outleveled" is just ridiculous and total fish thinking. All your arguments for calling are just meaningless statements w/ no real relevance to our situation. "Moreover, there are many players who will bet when double checked to unless they have a good reason not to bet." What does this even mean??? You think he is closing his eyes and betting because we checked twice? Honestly, if I were watching someone play, saw them click call, and were good, unless they had a very, VERY good specific read or timing tell, I'd slap them in the head and say don't be results oriented that was a dreadful call. "While I agree that Villain shouldn't fold a FD on the flop, there are a substantial # of players who will say I'm not drawing to the nut flush, plus the board is paired so I'm not necessarily drawing to the winning hand, plus I'm probably only getting to see 1 more card from this EP raiser, so I fold. " PPL who do this will so rarely be the same type who are villains stats, and who decided to call a pfr w/ suited connector or something. Maybe if he limped in and it was multi way or something, but if it's the way this pot played out, no one ever folds hearts on the flop here like ever.
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#13
09-25-2007, 11:59 PM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
I think b/f>c/c here, since you know he's going to take a stab at the river with a pretty wide range. But at the same time maybe c/f>b/f, as I'm not really sure what he's calling the flop with that doesn't beat us here. Pretty much every drawing hand on the flop hits by the river. So I think it's really a question of b/f v. c/f, I guess I lean towards c/f.
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#16
09-26-2007, 08:25 AM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
[ QUOTE ]
Not all players, even halfway decent ones, adhere as rigorously to the bluff/value bet dichotomy as the majority of the posters on this forum. In addition, river bet/don't bet when checked to decisions can be endlessly analyzed (if your opponent is on the 1st level, he'll think this, the 2nd, he'll think the opposite, the 3rd, back to what he thinks on the 1st, ad infinitum). For example, if a thinking player knows you'll fold QQ here (which is what you're advocating), then he'd bet TT all day long, because QQ is a decent chunk of your range with this line here. Moreover, there are many players who will bet when double checked to unless they have a good reason not to bet. [/ QUOTE ] He knows that we know he knows that we know he knows this.... :P p.s i fold.
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#19
09-26-2007, 11:34 AM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
[ QUOTE ]
Pretty sure a lot of villains could bluff with TT or 99 here or a hand like 98, but it's a very small part of his range so folding is good. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't been playing much recently but I still very very very much doubt this is true. if you read through the sarcasm ansky's posts in this thread are good
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#20
09-26-2007, 11:36 AM
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Re: Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pretty sure a lot of villains could bluff with TT or 99 here or a hand like 98, but it's a very small part of his range so folding is good. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't been playing much recently but I still very very very much doubt this is true. [/ QUOTE ] Was thinking the same thing. It is still a fold if they are turning those hands into a bluff, though, so it's an easy fold.
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