50NL equity checkup

[Semtex]

I forget, can I call this even if I'm positive he has the flush? I'm pretty sure I can (and I did). Should I have raised PF?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($38.90)
MP1 ($30.60)
MP2 ($59.10)
CO ($45.65)
Button ($48.95)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($49)
UTG ($40.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $5</font>, MP2 folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $48.5</font>, Hero calls $33.50.

Turn: ($99) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($99) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $99

[Eggpie]

You're normally 28% to hit the FH if you have a set on the flop. You're getting 2:1, which is roughly 33% so you don't quite have the odds IF you are sure he has the flush.

Once you add in hands like 44, AhQ this makes the call about break even.

If it is -EV then it isn't by much. I probably raise to $20, this means he makes a bigger error if he calls with the flush draw, and makes it a better call for you if he pushes. (Better as in you have better odds, and the call is then clearly +EV)

[Semtex]

[ QUOTE ]
If it is -EV then it isn't by much. I probably raise to $20, this means he makes a bigger error if he calls with the flush draw, and makes it a better call for you if he pushes. (Better as in you have better odds, and the call is then clearly +EV)

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm this is good.

[KurtSF]

I did the calcs and got 33% to improve by the end. How'd you get 28%?

[jhill3535]

990 games 0.718 secs 1,378 games/sec

Board: Qh 6h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.444% 34.44% 00.00% 341 0.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 65.556% 65.56% 00.00% 649 0.00 { AhKh }

[shat4brains]

limp is fine reraising is bad because the only hand u have beat thats calling is 44 or maybe Ah and like eggpie said its close to a call if you think 44 and Ahx is in his pushing range then call. If hes a nit and only pushes a flush then its a fold