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#11
07-09-2007, 05:08 AM
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Re: 100NL I suck at draws...
What if the turn bricks? Then what? UTG does have a big stack but he sure hasn't represented a lot of strength this hand my limp/calling PF and make a weak bet on the flop. The only thing that might make me not shove this flop is if I have some read on UTG that he tries to build the pot with his strong hands by betting small.
By shoving the flop it gets our money in when we are a favorite (which I would make the assumption we are a lot of the time here) and shuts out the UTG player. 
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#13
07-09-2007, 05:15 AM
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Re: 100NL I suck at draws...
No no no. Can't do that. The pot will be $95 if you call and UTG+1 comes along. If you bet like $60 on a brick and UTG+1 shoves you are going to barf and [censored] yourself but you aren't going to fold for another ~$60 that you have to call from UTG+1. Pot will be like $240 (assuming UTG gets his money in too).
Just shove the flop. Your money will still get in when you have the best of it and you have fold equity against UTG.
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#14
07-09-2007, 05:17 AM
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Re: 100NL I suck at draws...
[censored] I wasn't thinking when I said bet / fold I meant, try to bet a smallish amount on turn and keep pot small as you can. You are committed to this pot tho, I just dont like shoving on flop because you are risking more than you need too at that time I like waiting for turn if I am going to shove.
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#15
07-09-2007, 06:02 AM
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Re: 100NL I suck at draws...
As you say I lead flop here - for one reason to thin the field and may be to b3bAI - altrhough on this connected board I don't like it too much as I think [though need to pokerstove it] hands that are raising us and calling a shovve have good equity and I think ~ 20% time UTG+1 will fold to a shove.
Calling the flop raise -makes turn awkward as even our magic heart may slow down villan but as played I think is the only way especially if UTG calls. It's then a turn implied odds/pot odds decision on the turn and I'm folding to any siginificant bets. Draws suck OOP mutliway as the PFR -that's why b3bAI exists and I think may actually be the best line although as I said earlier given how connected the board is and hands likely calling a shove is ~ 50/50 flip but if UTG comes along then we have good equity 3way and alot dead money in the pot too. Edit: PSTove gives vs all made 2pair/88+/str8s 40/60 equity so including FE/other draws/bluffs b3bAI may actually still be best.
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