50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??

[Lego05]

Villian is 36.89/9.56/1.39 postflop agg. over 450 hands

So let's see exactly who and how many people go which way. I wonder how much diverse the poll will be.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($49.75)
SB ($49.60)
BB ($54.85)
Hero ($48.75)
MP ($21.45)
CO ($21.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $5.5</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($11.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10.5</font>, Hero calls $10.50.

Turn: ($32.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $38.85 (All-In)</font>, Hero???

[bored]

I 4 Bet or fold pf, and I almost never fold pf, esp getting reraised from a blind vs my steal raise.

As played, I fold the turn.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I 4 Bet or fold pf, and I almost never fold pf, esp getting reraised from a blind vs my steal raise.

As played, I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like to call pre-flop in position a decent amount.



BTW I'm like 99% sure I made the right move. Kinda curious how this comes out though.

[anthb7210p]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted fold but after thinking about it, its a clear call. I would discount JJ at least 50% in the above range but I would eliminate KK/QQ altogether. This guy is almost never playing a high set that fast here on a dry board.

[Numfar]

Very interesting thread.

A couple of more thoughts. Firstly, a lot of people are discounting the likelihood of the hands that push their decision one particular way. You can't do that - you need to look at both sides. So, it's not likely that he has AQ or JJ which is fair enough but as Jouster said, why would he play KK or QQ like this when, as this thread shows, it will get AK to fold?

Secondly, if he seldom plays AQ or JJ like this then how does he play them? I think JJ is more likely so I'll look at that. He re-raises PF - a 10 PFR would often do that. He fires the standard continuation bet. Then on the turn he picks up an OESD. Does he check fold? He knows you bet if he checks. If I'm him I think I have to push because I have outs and need to maximise my last bit of FE. Maybe AK or AQ will fold.

With AQ it's harder - I can see a check fold on the Turn.

The other thing is that it turns out that if we are villain, the correct play is to shove the Turn because Hero folds his AK 84% of the time.

[Shattered]

Dear God, fold that as fast as you can. If you call you're praying for a chop.

[Hail Eris]

I fold and I'm a station.

This could be an easy call with a read or two, but it's definitely a fold in a vacuum.

[AZplaya]

meh, maybet your ahead of a 1 pair hand that just picked up a draw, but I really don't see what hand you beat here.

[anthb7210p]

do you think villan is capable of making turn bet w/ JJ?