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#1
08-15-2006, 08:33 AM
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Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
PP NL 100, 6-max, 5-handed
Reads: Villain is a calling station in 200 hands; 76/8/0.8. He plays every hand and I've never seen him fold top pair. Hero has $126 and Villain covers. Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] One limper, Hero raises to $4, SB folds, Villain calls from BB, limper folds. Flop: ($9) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $7, Villain calls. Turn: ($23) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero checks. River: ($23) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain leads for $20. 
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#2
08-15-2006, 08:38 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
That board has gotta be pretty scarey even for a calling station, I don't see you getting paid off by a worse hand if you raise and he's not folding a hand that beats you. Calling looks okay though if you are considering rasing, not sure what 'sticking it to the union' is mind...
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#3
08-15-2006, 08:38 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
Why did you check the turn? You have a straight and flush draw. I would have bet around $15 there. If he had a bigger straight he probably would have raised you, especially with two flush draws out there.
As played, I'm calling the river bet.
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#4
08-15-2006, 08:40 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen him fold top pair. [/ QUOTE ] Why not bet the turn again? Are you keeping the pot small here worried about a Q? River looks like a nice value raise opportunity. I'd pop it up another $30 and then throw up in my mouth a bit when he pushes his QhTh.
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#5
08-15-2006, 08:41 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the turn? You have a straight and flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] OP is now edited for correct flop suits. Sorry about that.
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#6
08-15-2006, 08:43 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
i'm at least calling, probably raising here. i think we are usually ahead in this spot against this villain. it's hard to put him on a runner-runner heart flush, so i think 78 is the only hand villain could realistically have that we are behind. i think we'll see top pair, or a set/two pair here a lot more often than 78 or two hearts.
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#9
08-15-2006, 09:11 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
[ QUOTE ]
I probably shove based on your read. I expect to be paid off by some two pair hands as well as TPNK. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what I was wondering: how much will a donk call with Q6? With QJ? How much am I imperiling my stack by raising? Will even the lesser donks call a big raise on a 4-straight board?
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#10
08-15-2006, 09:13 AM
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Re: Stick It to the Union, or Time for a Nice Raise? PP 100 6M.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I probably shove based on your read. I expect to be paid off by some two pair hands as well as TPNK. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what I was wondering: how much will a donk call with Q6? With QJ? How much am I imperiling my stack by raising? Will even the lesser donks call a big raise on a 4-straight board? [/ QUOTE ] The thing is I don't see the harm in shoving ... I'm confident we're winning his bet anyway, so if he has a better hand (like a set or top two) a shove is the correct bet here. I really do think that you'll get calls from two pair hands, yes.
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