PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 7)

[Franchise 60]

How unreal is it that the Niners are giving NE a top 10 pick, Joe Staley better be goooood.

[PokerFink]

Eli Manning DPAR Ranks

2005: 18th
2006: 17th
2007: 18th

He's average.

[Franchise 60]

[ QUOTE ]
Eli Manning DPAR Ranks

2005: 18th
2006: 17th
2007: 18th

He's average.

[/ QUOTE ]

And Jeff Garcia is obviously the 3rd best QB in the league. Garrard is obviously the 5th best QB in the league. Joey Harrington is obviously the 14th best QB and better than McNabb and Eli. Chad Pennington is obviously better than Eli Manning.

These formulas are good, and I'm not gonna go all Joe Morgan and act like advanced formulas are meaningless, but they don't mean EVERYTHING. Eli is the same as he was two years ago in these rankings, and to say he hasn't improved is absurd.

[PokerFink]

Semtex and CSC,

Yes, this week my rankings basically came out as a list of the standings. I don't know how much time you two spend reading this forum, but if you read the other rankings threads (mine, Sluss' and Assani's) you will know that, if anything, I hate rankings that are done purely by the standings. I ripped Assani a few weeks ago for doing that.

But when you're predicting where teams will finish up in the standings, you have to consider the current standings. And the simple fact of the matter is that the 2-4 Eagles will probably win fewer games than the 4-2 Panthers, even though the Eagles are superior. And they are the better team.

The Panthers have a lot of difficult games, but so do the Eagles, who get to play Dallas twice, New York, Washington and New England, who apparently is kinda good. Detroit has a moderately hard schedule as well.

The only team out of the middle group with an easy schedule is Arizona, who I originally had at #7 despite their record but decided against it for two reasons:

1) They're 1.5 games back, which is a lot of ground to make up, and
2) Warner is banged up

As for New Orleans, yes, they have won two straight games. Whoopie. They were absolutely abysmal in the first four games. Six games isn't a big sample, but it's better than two, and over six games they've been very bad.

[tdarko]

Fink,

First, I want to say that I liked the list this week.

[ QUOTE ]
God that's tough. Right now, I'd put it:

1. Dallas
2. New York
3. Green Bay
4. Tampa Bay
5. Washington

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree w/ this but is Washington a #5 team in a conference or is it just that #6 and beyond is that bad? B/c Wash isn't very good. Their defense is really good, yes. But their O-line atrocious and they can't move the chains at all. I just fail to see how they are going to beat anyone when they start having to score some points (Dallas, NYG).

That didn't sound like a question but it was, I can't figure out if they are actually the #5 team in the NFC or if the NFC is that bad.

[Zutroy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eli Manning DPAR Ranks

2005: 18th
2006: 17th
2007: 18th

He's average.

[/ QUOTE ]

And Jeff Garcia is obviously the 3rd best QB in the league. Garrard is obviously the 5th best QB in the league. Joey Harrington is obviously the 14th best QB and better than McNabb and Eli. Chad Pennington is obviously better than Eli Manning.

These formulas are good, and I'm not gonna go all Joe Morgan and act like advanced formulas are meaningless, but they don't mean EVERYTHING. Eli is the same as he was two years ago in these rankings, and to say he hasn't improved is absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no doubt that DVOA is a little wacky at this point in the season due to sample sample size and variance and all that but to use your example from earlier:
C. Palmer 22.0% DVOA (9th in the NFL)
E. Manning 3.4% DVOA (22nd in the NFL)

Both of Eli's starting WRs are only one slot below their CIN counterparts in DPAR and the Giants have a much better running game. He is not an awful QB but he is not a great one and likely never will be. Also fwiw, he was ranked 22nd in DVOA last year as well.

[Nonfiction]

[ QUOTE ]

Agree w/ this but is Washington a #5 team in a conference or is it just that #6 and beyond is that bad? B/c Wash isn't very good. Their defense is really good, yes. But their O-line atrocious and they can't move the chains at all. I just fail to see how they are going to beat anyone when they start having to score some points (Dallas, NYG).

That didn't sound like a question but it was, I can't figure out if they are actually the #5 team in the NFC or if the NFC is that bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
As a washington homer, I think its both. The NFC is awful, but Washington is also one of the best teams in the NFC. Their O line is atrocious due to injuries, this is true. But also note that if they could actually play a second half well with a lead, they would be 6-0. They DOMINATED Green Bay and NYG for the first half, but apparently do not know how to play with a lead. Washington in the 1st half has arguably been better than anyone in the NFC so far this year. If Gibbs and Saunders can get their playcalling down Washington should compete with Dallas and NYG for best of the NFC. I am really looking forward to see if they will be a bigger test for NE than Dallas was. It will certainly be the first time the Skins will be playing from behind (most likely) this year.

[Nonfiction]

Also, everyone knows it, but the NFC West is such a joke. Its like a giant competition to see which team is the least awful.

[lastchance]

The Seahawks are the least awful (as they have been for 2 of the last 3 years).

[PokerFink]

Washington has arguably the best defense in the NFL. Their offense sucks, but having a #1 defense goes a long way.

2007 Skins: -24% defense, -13% offense, 11-5?
2006 Bears: -20% defense, -4% offense, 13-3
2002 Bucs: -33% defense, -2% offense, 12-4
2000 Ravens: -30% defense, -7% offense, 12-4

I'm not trying to say they're as good as those teams, because they're not, it's just an example of how having a really, really good defense can mitigate having a bad offense. Those teams won or made the Super Bowl despite their offense. Washington won't go that far, but they will make the playoffs and they're a good football team.

We all know that the AFC is superior, but the superiority comes from the top (Pats and Colts) and the bottom, where most of the bad teams are in the NFC. In the middle, the conferences are about the same.