Sunday Million- Raymer's bustout hand

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you should have typed "I have AK and am isolating"

[/ QUOTE ]

Jamming 1,000,000 chips over a 63,000 open, he pretty much did.

Regards,
Woodguy

[gobboboy]

sacker's range apparently is tighter but I think my range for isolating would be 88+ (maybe 77), AQ+ (maybe AJ).

[Zetack]

Greg explains his reasoning here:

Greg's post

[bogey1]

I suck at poker, but say sacker raised to 190k and someone behind him shoves. Is he really laying down AKs at that point given the overlay in chips? If he's not laying down, then why not shove it in to begin with?

I suppose a more standard reraise might look more suspicious and get more people to lay down pockets (like TT). Are they all thinking at that 2nd and 3rd level?

[betgo]

Yeh, I think Fossilman has a point that this can be a smaller pp as well as a big ace. It does seem like the call is cEV+, but I wonder if it is $EV+ with 15 players left.

I do think that it is a bigger pp more than Fossilman implies. Sometimes people will push with KK/QQ thinking they don't mind if they are called. Whether or not it is correct thinking, people often think that way rather than in terms of trapping.

[s33w33d]

If the read is tight-aggressive (I personally always thought sacker was a maniac), then TT is fine. I agree that AA and KK are nearly impossible but I'm pretty sure QQ is in there too.

Obviously the big question is can you include hands like AQs and the like into sacker's play. 99-QQ, AKo is a pretty crappy range to go booboo with TT, but if it's 88+, AJs+, AQo+ or the like, not so bad.

The overlay helps a little bit too. Raymer in for T702,195 and the resultant pot was T1,522,390, so Raymer was in for 1.168:1.

By the way sacker was cruelly robbed and should have taken the whole thing down.

[blainestar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the payout structure goes to making Greg's call good, too.

He went out in 42nd and 28-42 all make the same, so 1/3 of the field remaining will make exactly what he does if he loses his flip ($4,500 - and BTW, I agree that he's ahead of the range). 1st place is $263K - I didn't do the ICM, but doubling up here is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

[fnurt]

Obviously the initial raiser can have a lot of hands, but I still feel like our analysis is incomplete if we disregard him altogether.

My rule of thumb is that you ought to have a pretty decent chance of holding a dominating hand when you call in these situations, so it really comes down to how often you think the big stack has a lower pair. Regardless of what the guy has posted in this thread, Greg obviously has no way of knowing his exact range. I tend to think Greg is a little optimistic to think the guy would risk a quarter of his stack with 66 or 77, though. Then again, I'm not the one sitting at the table.

[A_PLUS]

Depending on what level sacker is on, I don't think AA,KK are 'nearly impossible'.
I don't see much of a reason to discount QQ all that much, or JJ at all.

Then again, if we are giving him credit to jam AA, I don't see much of a reason to throw out AQ, or 88-99 for that matter. Without getting to in depth, my assumption would be JJ,AK would be the most likely. Given Greg's expectation if he wins the hand, and the overlay, I think the call is good.

[0evg0]

this thread is dumb and i thought it was stuff like this that caused us to start a new forum