What did Yang have when Childs folded QQ?

[Clayton]

i love players like childs, i would have jammed atc in yangs spot so childs could appropriately see "where he as at"

[dsteff]

I might have missed a hand or two but from what I saw every single time a player lead into Yang at the final table Yang raised. Yang's range on this hand was any two cards imo.

[llleisure]

Fairly sure he had a set of 4s.

I just watched that hand again and based on his speech at the end of the whole deal he mntioned a hand where he had 4s. He says something to the effect of someone had queens and he flopped a set of 4s. He didn't say it was that hand but there was a 4 on the flop on that hand and Childs showed (and folded) his queens. I'm saying 80% thats the hand he mentioned at the end.

[yad]

no way we can say what yang had with any confidence until the espn broadcast.

the interesting question in this hand is why on earth childs leads if he is intending to fold to a raise. i can see bet/call or c/r or c/c but bet/fold just seems god-awful in this spot except against a really weak predictable player, which yang clearly was not.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
no way we can say what yang had with any confidence until the espn broadcast.

the interesting question in this hand is why on earth childs leads if he is intending to fold to a raise. i can see bet/call or c/r or c/c but bet/fold just seems god-awful in this spot except against a really weak predictable player, which yang clearly was not.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess Childs thought Yang would fold if behind to the lead.

Folding preflop or check/folding the flop face down would have been much better than bet/folding a showing.

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming ESPN shows it. I remember back in 2004 waiting for them to show an enormous pot between Raymer and Arieh that was talked about in the reports.... and then they didn't show it. hyahcyahcyah.

[/ QUOTE ]

The one where Arieh apparently got up from the table, walked around, looked at the money, shook his head, went back to the table and folded?

Yeah, I was extremely dissapointed they didn't show that on ESPN.

Also, just for fun...

[LCposter]

Looking at the hand from Yang's point-of-view, why is it so obvious that Childs is weak? He's leading into the preflop aggressor, and it's not a tiny bet (a 60% pot lead OOP into the PFR doesn't seem weak to me at least). If the bet size seems too small, would 3.5-4M be better? In any case, I think Yang would put Childs on at least TT+/set/big draw (maybe 66/77/88 lead out like this too, but personally I think Childs is checking anything under 99).

Against that range, is Yang really going to put his own tourney life on the line with any two? Even if he pegs Childs as weak/tight, he knows only TT/JJ and maybe QQ can fold. I think a raise here represents JJ+ or a big draw most of the time and trash a small percentage of time.

In order to analyze the flop lead, we have to think about how Childs would play a monster. If he had AA or a set, is he more likely to get all of Yang's chips in on the flop with a 2/3-pot lead or a CRAI? I would argue the former, espcially since everyone here thinks Yang is agressive enough to raise practically any two. If Yang just has overcards, he's more likely to fold to a CRAI and/or check behind the flop.

Given that Childs played QQ the same way he could play AA or a set, it can't be that bad. Also, if Childs checks, Yang checks behind, and the turn comes A, K, or club (up to 19 possible scare cards) he's just given Yang the best hand or a golden opportunity to bluff and steal the pot.

Calling the flop lead dumb because we saw Yang raise all-in seems results oriented to me.

[Ckrad]

Id say yang has TT-JJ.

[PokerFink]

LCPoster,

Except people lead crap flops like that all the time, because it forces the other player to either fold or raise all of their chips. So you can lead and risk a 60% pot bet to win the pot, while the other player must risk all their chips to win the pot.

With air, that's a good play. With QQ... not so much.

[beaver]

I think Yang had JJ.

I swear after Childs showed the queens, Yang said "bad laydown"