NOV 29th Premium Service Plays

[PNBkid]

Burns Thursday Night GOY


DALLAS (-7 or better)

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/29/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. Its been an amazing run for Favre and the Packers and they've cost me more than once this season. That being said, I successfully played against the Packers the only previous time that they lost (vs. Chicago) and I feel strongly that they'll finally go down a second time on Thursday. The stats will show that the Packers have the better defense as they are allowing 16.8 points per game while the Cowboys are allowing 20.1. However, it's not entirely fair to compare those stats as the Cowboys have faced the Patriots while the Packers have only faced one team (the Giants) that currently has more than six wins. Note that the Packers caught the Giants when they were really struggling and that the Cowboys have also beaten them twice, each time by double-digits. Anyway, take away the 48 points that the Pats put up, and the Cowboys have allowed an average of just 17 points per game, almost the identical number that the Packers have allowed. Additionally, the Cowboys defense comes off an absolutely dominant effort, holding the Jets to three points and a mere 180 total yards. Conversely, the Packers allowed the Lions to score 26 points on 331 total yards. Favre's exceptional play notwithstanding, the Cowboys have been the much better offensive team, as they are averaging 32.5 points per game while the Packers are managing 26.9. The Cowboys offense racked up 174 total rushing yards last week, their highest total this season. Note that the Cowboys haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 13 games and that they held the Jets to a season low 60 yards on the ground. I also feel it's signficant that the Cowboys are coming off a non-conference game and playing their second straight at home while the Packers are coming off a big divisional win and playing their second straight road game. In addition to the situation and venue in their favor, I simply believe that the Cowboys are the better all around team. They know the extreme importance of this game and I look for them to improve to 7-1 ATS (8-0 SU) against conference opponents while the Packers fall to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a win over a divisional opponent. *Thursday GOY


Burns college football

LOUISVILLE (-4 or better)

Game: Rutgers vs. Louisville Game Time: 11/29/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. You may recall that last year's game was labeled the "Game of the Century." The Cardinals jumped out to an 18-point lead but the Scarlet Knights rallied all the way back for a 28-25 win. That loss ruined the Cardinals' shot at competing for the national title and was the only blemish on last season's 12-1 record. Its safe to say that the Cardinals have NOT forgotten that painful loss and/or the largest crowd in Rutgers history storming the field afterwards. Prior to their bye week, the Cardinals lost on the road vs. a tough South Florida team. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) since the start of the 2005 season when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. While they've been inconsistent, the Cardinals have also proven that they are more than capable of rising to the occasion when properly motivated. Just ask Cincinnati as the Cardinals handed them their first loss and sent their season into a tailspin. The Cardinals beat Pittsburgh by seven points in their most recent game here, improving to 18-2 in 20 home games over the past 36 months. Note that ALL 18 victories came by a minimum of six points. This season, the Cardinals have averaged a whopping 45 points and 576 total yards in their five games. Its also worth noting that the Cardinals are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored by four points or less. The Scarlet Knights barely beat Pittsburgh in their last game and they got crushed 38-19 at Connecticut the last time that they played a conference road game. The Cardinals won 56-5 when these teams met here in 2005. While tonight's game isn't likely to be nearly that lopsided, I still expect another convincing win and cover for the revenge-minded home side. *Thursday Night Roast