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#21
10-24-2007, 11:15 PM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
yea shove. nice chat afterward, guy sounds like an ass.
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#22
10-24-2007, 11:20 PM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
[ QUOTE ]
fold. [/ QUOTE ] lol, he's a donkament player and a good one. Overpairs are the nuts for these guys. I'm sure he's got a pretty big range here including all kinds of pair+oesd hands, 2 pair, and even on occasion a complete bluff.
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#23
10-25-2007, 03:37 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
lol
McShove is very good and is [censored] around with you w/ the ensuing chat. He knows its an easy call and hes probably just trying to make you think hes a nit so you'll fold more to him later. Also, he is not "just a donkament player". I'd bet that he is better than the majority of us.
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#24
10-25-2007, 05:16 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
[ QUOTE ]
J9s would be in the beginning of the 3rd tier of his standard deviation for QTIP's hand sample if he didn't tighten up any UTG. Really a strange play. If I'm calc'ing Standard Deviation correctly. I've been playing around with it today. Here's my math if anyone wants to check it SD = SQRT(1326-160*(160/200)) = 35 with 1326 being different hands you can be dealt 160 being 12% of that and 200 being the number of hands QTIP had datamined on him. 1 SD = 160 + or - 35 hands 2SD = 160 + or - 70 hands? 3SD = 160 + or - 105 hands as pokerstove rates hands j9s is 17.6% or 234 hands, so in the beginning of the the 3rd SD Bottomset and some you other guys seem to understand this stuff pretty well so maybe he can correct me if I'm wrong. It's been more than 10 years since I cracked my statistics book. [/ QUOTE ] This is off topic and any readers that aren't inclined to read some statistics should definitely skip this post, but I'll comment on Mike's SD post here. Not sure exactly what formula you're going for with that SD, but notice that it's going up as QTIP's sample size increases? Unless I misunderstand you're trying to find the standard deviation of the 12% PFR that QTIP has. In that case the formula we use provides the standard deviation for the number of times villain raises in a 200 hand sample - we currently have him raising .12*200 = 24 times, and the formula for the standard deviation on that 24 is: SD = SQRT(200 * (.12) * (1-.12)) = 4.6 hands. 17.6% of 200 is about 35 hands, which is 11/4.6 = 2.4 SD's above the 200 hand sample QTIP gathered. Bear in mind that poker hands are not independent identically distributed random events, players' strategies change as the players pay more or less attention, go on tilt, sit at tables with different types of opponents, etc. When you collect a sample of 200 hands where a villain has a PFR of 12%, them raising J9s UTG is definitely more likely than a 2.4 standard deviation event (of course it's still not that likely, but more likely than the .8% indicated by dismissing it as a 2.4 SD event).
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#25
10-25-2007, 05:47 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] fold. [/ QUOTE ] lol, he's a donkament player and a good one. Overpairs are the nuts for these guys. I'm sure he's got a pretty big range here including all kinds of pair+oesd hands, 2 pair, and even on occasion a complete bluff. [/ QUOTE ] mcshove is one of the best MSNL players online IMO and this is an easy call
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#26
10-25-2007, 06:56 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
There is a lot of very good players who open SC's UTG. I have no point to go along with this statement but it is something that I have noticed.
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#27
10-25-2007, 08:39 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
My Standard Deviation goes down as the sample size increases.
If you double 200 to 400 the SD becomes 22 hands. I'm still not sure I'm doing it right though.
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#29
10-25-2007, 09:37 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
You thought about folding this? And yes, now that someone has pointed it out, that's a great line to get under the skin of any player, I think I'll use it at the casino tomorrow night!
Uber huge suckout by me, "That's an easy laydown against me!" LOL
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#30
10-25-2007, 09:49 AM
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Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
The reason I didn't like it is because it's painfully obvious what I have hear like 90% of the time. There are times that I will call a big pp here, but, like I said, I have a set here almost always...guess I could have 99 tho... That was my only point. Everyone in the country knows what I have here, yet he still reraises.
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