Live NYC - 25/50 with trips

[Allinlife]

i'm kinda surprised fwf said it's a call I thought this a straight forward fold since worse 8 prob never does this/ horrible line for missed flush draw

[jlocdog]

I think opponents range is wider then boat here. Infact I would give him as little as AJ given positions and lines taken. Especially if 'he has a tendency to get out of line'. Other 8's could also believe they are/were trapping you the whole time. Hell he could have a busted FD and figure unless you have a boat he can chase till river and bluff if he missed. Nope, not a believer in the tight range given.

I'm in the call camp.

[Lefort]

I can't decide... I mean if he's VBing worse 8s then obv insta-call but I don't know if he is.. and if he's not I'm pretty sure you can lay it down if your read isn't that he's "fully capable and willing to bluff frequently in this spot"..

[rock1]

obviously not easy to break down so finely, but hwat percent of the time is this a boat? a naked 8? a straight? a bluff against a relative unknown in your experience?

[Hattifnatt]

looks like a fold.

[PokerForMath]

[ QUOTE ]
obviously not easy to break down so finely, but hwat percent of the time is this a boat? a naked 8? a straight? a bluff against a relative unknown in your experience?

[/ QUOTE ]

again, the breakdown is going to depend on what kind of line he thinks you take here. you limped from the button ("position limp") then he check calls every street. his pre-flop action is easily consistent with everything but JJ, AA (AA, JJ he better KNOW the bb is going to pop it).

You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

If he puts you on < trips, then he jams with any trips or better. So I see it breaking down exactly along the lines of the math: 32/44 = 8/11 times he has (75%) of the time you have him, 25% of the time he has you. Maybe its a little less if you see him dumping 28, 38, etc, but based on his position, I see him in with any of those hands.

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.

Going back to start, if he sees you as checking behind a middle trips, then K8 is the worst hand you show up with here and I don't see a cr ai with < a boat.

[duck_butter]

[ QUOTE ]
What makes you say that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because this is a very unusual line for a reasonable player to take with a naked 8 unless he really thinks you are a live one.

What hands are you representing by making a nearly pot sized bet on the river? If he puts you on a missed flush draw or a thin value bet with Aces Up, then he snap calls with his trip 8s. What is the point of pushing with trips unless he thinks you might have a hand to call with that he beats? Any hand better than his is very likely going to call and worse hands are going to fold. The only exception would be if he could somehow put you precisely on K8 or Q8 and think his check raise AI on the river might get you to fold. But that is a big assumption and hardly worth the risk vs reward for when he is wrong and you call with those hands or when you actually have a boat.

[cero_z]

I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

great post as usual

but then again, it's a live new york game.

[Heyway]

[ QUOTE ]

You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
[ QUOTE ]


Since when does trips beat a straight?