Assani's NFL Wagering Thread

[NajdorfDefense]

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Currently, he has been fudging both his W/L ...

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Pls to be substantiating this? I looked through all of Naj's posts in the Week 3 thread and it all looked legit to me. Where exactly did he "fudge"?

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Oh, they have no trouble lying and repeating lies as long as it suits them.

I had 4, count 'em, four winners in last week's thread, let's see if I can remember them: AF, Troy, Utah, and USC. A whopping 2 on Saturday, let me count again....yep, still 2.
6 losers, including some awful picks: Miami, PSU, GT, AzzuST, ND, Wash.
[Predictions like UCF and Cal game that came true were not counted, of course.]

Now, unless there's a typo on one of my posts [always possible] that looks like a 4-6 week to me. A quick scan of that thread shows no other picks, either.

Obviously, if I've made an error, I will correct it. According to Iggy, my maths is right from last week as I suspected.
I'm sure in my 5 years posting here I've made some errors, math or otherwise, that could be pointed out. I post my picks free, have never asked anyone to follow me, and freely admit some part of my success comes from hitting the lines early, as opposed to WA-lines.
Maybe some people follow me, some do ask my opinion on these threads [maybe to fade!] and some PM me here and elsewhere similarly.

Regardless, the mark of a superior 'capper is not his W/L, until you get to very long-term you can't even know who's who - it's their prediction of line moves, BR mgmt, and how well they weight/Kelly predictions they feel strongest about. As well as their analysis of a matchup -- I don't provide analysis of all my picks, some are purely stat-based, but I have provided very lengthy analysis of several of my PoTY which many posters have said they appreciate, and certainly the result of such can't be changed in any way, shape or form.

What scares off n00bs from this forum is not me/Thremp/b00t asking a poster *not* to tout or guarantee picks, or making fun of I HAS A LOCKX!, but threads like these that are the most heavily trafficked threads on the front page. My two cents, anyway.

[Post-Oak]

OK, we'll see who's the liar. Maybe you can explain how you get nickel lines, and even money lines on bets that you place a full week before the game? (summary provided)

Let's look at Week 2 first. He lists his record as 8-3 +4.85 units at the start of that week (after the Thurs night game). His 3 losses to date were all counted as being on a nickel line (-105), even though that was never stated anywhere.

Here are all of his picks:

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit. loss
BG +17, 1u winner
Okla -10, winner
PSU -14, 1u winner
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5 winner x2
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u. Loss
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. LOSS
UNC +6, 1 u winner

total donk parlay (his words)
0.1u to win 1.26u
NW -10
BG +18
Vandy +3.5
Hawaii -27.5

He expunges the parlay from his record, becuase it was just a "donk" play. Of course, "degen play on Rutgers u50.5" or "fun sized bet on AF", without even listing units, count as 2 wins in his YTD record (one for a full unit win).

His W/L record he updates as 15-6. You can see he went 6-3. Where does the extra win come from? Well, because he had Oregon at +7 AND +8.5. That's two wins, right? Right??? What a clown.


Let's look at how he tracks units won and lost.

His first update (ignore the OregSt loss because that was on Thursday, and that is counted in his 8-3 record):

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit.
BG +17, 1u
Okla -10,
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close.

9-3 ytd, +5.85u.

OK, he booked a win on Rutgers, and he added one unit won. So now we are sure that his bets are to win one unit, and not one unit risked.


Next update:

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit. loss, gg Owls
BG +17, 1u winner
Okla -10, winner
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close. LOSS - Freeman is horrendous. Wright better get healthy.
UNC +6, 1 u

11-5 ytd, +5.75u.


Se he added 2 winners, for +2 units. He had 2 losses, but only subtracts 2.1 units, even though he had 1.1 to win 1 on Temple. So that means that he got the Miami under at even money, even though he never mentioned this fact (translation: [censored]). His 3 previous losses were all booked as being on a nickel line (-105).


His last update:

PSU -14, 1u winner
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5 winner x2
BYU +7.5, 1u. last minute Loss
UNC +6, 1 u winner


15-6 ytd, +8.7u.

Again, it should be 14-6, in case that is confusing you. He wins 4 units on his 3 winners, bringing him to +9.75. So we can see that his BYU loss was once again on a nickel line. This guy bets the opening line. He bets Thursday games. He bets early, he bets late, but he always get a nickel line, or even money.


Week 3

He makes this offhand comment:

Okay, you got me, I'll put a funsized bet on AF and the points.

And then chalks it up as a win:

Thanks for the guaranteed winnah! 1-0 Week 3,
16-6 YTD picks

Of course, his "degen play on Rutgers u50.5" was also booked as a win (for a full unit). But his donk parlay, to win 1.26 units, was expunged. You can bet your bottom dollar that it would have counted if he had won it.

His next update:

BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit
GT -6.5
Troy +11
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit.
ND +8, 1u
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Dennis Erickson still likes to put a ton of points on the board, can't see them falling behind 14-0 [and they still covered] again.
Undid the Utah by taking UCLA -14 at matchbook/-114, redoing Utah +15.5/-105 for 1 unit.

Ridin' Troy a winnah, glove compartment, gotta get my cash. Knew that spread shoulda opened +6.5, not +11. Double-digits was crazy like Krayzie Bone. Got warrants in every city except Houston, but I still ain't losin':

17-6 YTD cfb
+9.95u.

He came into the week 15-6, +8.7 (actually 14-6, but you know what I mean). So now we know that his "fun sized bet" was supposedly to win 0.25 units.

Next update:
BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit Loss
GT -6.5
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit. Loss
ND +8, 1u Loss
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Adding at -28 1u.
Undid the Utah by taking UCLA -14 at matchbook/-114, redoing Utah +15.5/-105 for 1 unit. WIN

18-9 YTD cfb
+7.85u.

His one unit win would bring him up to 10.95. Looking at his YTD, his 3 losses brought him back down to 7.85, meaning he lost 3.1 units on those 3 losers. How is this possible? I guess two of the games were on a nickel line (-105), and one was an even money bet! This guy really knows how to line shop! These bets were placed on September 9th, a full week before the games! Where can I find these even money lines on Sunday night???
Also, maybe I am not understanding what he meant, but shouldn't he have booked a small unit loss when he undid his original Utah wager? Or did he find UCLA -14 +105 (we assume he got a nickel line of course), in order to perfectly balance his original bet?

His last update:
BYU -6 for 1 unit loss
GT -6.5 loss
USC -8.5 Win
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Adding at -28 1u. loss
Ark ml Loss (added: 0.5u +150 Arkansas)

19-12 YTD cfb ATS 0-1 ML
+4.20u.

His win brings his YTD units up to 8.85, and his 0.5 unit ML loss brings us to 8.35. So once again we are faced with a problem... how can you bet 3 games to win 4 units and only lose 4.15 units? Hmmm, it must be 2 nickel lines, and another even money bet!
Also, using his lame-brained accounting system, he booked two wins on one game because he bet it twice. Well it seems he only booked one loss when the same thing happened here with Az State.

So his record should be 18-12, 0-2 ML. I am not gonna take the time to figure out what his units should be at when we assume a dimeline ( a quick estimate is +3.4). Also, two of his wins were a "degen play" and a "fun sized bet" which were listed without units. When they both won, they got included in the record (one for a whole unit). I can't verify his 8-3 Week 1 record because his picks were in more than one thread, and I don't want to track them down.

Summary:
All of his losses are counted being on a nickel line (-105) or at even money, even though he bets most games on Sunday night (when the line opens).
He counted a win twice, because he bet the same game twice (with different lines), but did not count a loss twice when he lost a game he bet twice.
He expunged a ML parlay which was to win 1.26 units, even though he inlcludes "winners" where he made offhand remarks like "placed a fun sized bet" and "degen play" without even bothering to list the units (or put them in his list of plays, which he does for all normal picks as soon as he adds them) .
He's off to a nice start, but is still fudging his W/L record and units won.

[Post-Oak]

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Pls to be substantiating this? I looked through all of Naj's posts in the Week 3 thread and it all looked legit to me. Where exactly did he "fudge"?

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OK, because I am a moron I took the time to hold your hand and walk you through the addition and subtraction.

As you can see, he gets all of his bets in at -105 and +100, even when bets on Sunday night.

You can also see that if he bets on a game twice, he counts it as two wins. If he bets a game twice, and loses, he counts it as one loss.

[B00T]

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(summary provided)

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Understatement of the year.

[CrushinFelt]

Assani... why Denver @ -3? I jumped on the Jags at +3.5 because -3 for Denver is right where I thought the line should be.

[Thremp]

PO,

I'm not reading that, because I don't really care. But that is some attention to detail. I'm impressed that you'd call someone out and back it up like that.

Choo Choo.

[NajdorfDefense]

Someone PM'd me with a few questions and told me to recheck my Week 2 thread for a dumb maths mistake. Thanks for the heads-up.

There is a blatant error on my part in that thread, as I 2bl counted the Oregon win as 2 wins, stupidly. Absolutely my fault, no excuse even if I was drunk, I should have simply written down all the picks on each side of the W/L column instead of doing it on-screen at midnite, and done it sober. Lesson learned.

My apologies to everyone, and my sincere thanks to the board for pointing it out.

The loss on the donk parlay, was, in fact, specifically noted by me in that thread:
'and a -0.1 loss on the donk parlay...'

The Utah add’tl vig in undoing and redoing that bet was included, because the bets are to win 1u net [if 1unit is the size]. The risk was the -105 vig on the +15.5 line + the prior vig that I had to recoup. Utah covered, and it was recouped for a NET win of 1u. Like most posters, I don’t risk 1u to win .95238 or .9091 on ATS bets.

It has apparently been claimed that I am 0-2 ML instead of 0-1.

The only ML bet I can remember making or find in the past 3 weeks college FB is Arkansas, so I am fairly certain 0-1 ML is correct.

So, apparently, I am not the only one at 2p2 that makes errors at basic maths. Does that make them a liar? Most of us would say no, right? I hope we don’t get a name-calling forum war next time a poster makes a math error or typo.

My record ATS should be 18-12, not 19-12, and 0-1 ML. Again, no excuse for 2bl counting Oregon as 2 wins.

Neither of those is indicative of *anything* in the long-term. Maybe if I somehow got to 180-120 by running hot, but virtually no one is capable of that without running 2 std devs above normal, and I doubt I am that lucky. 54% for anyone is a huge winrate.

Yet another reason not to blindly follow anyone as Perf says, instead, learn how to handicap, or simply arb and middle if you are incapable of that. Pushing ALL-IN on any one game will eventually lead to Busto!


edit: I should also thank the person who found the error in my record. Thanks.

[Assani Fisher]

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Yo Assani...I can't send to your PM Box..you are over quota

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Is 209 really the max you can have? Seems like quite the arbitrary number. Anyway, I just deleted a bunch of them, so send away.

[Assani Fisher]

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What scares off n00bs from this forum is not me/Thremp/b00t asking a poster *not* to tout or guarantee picks, or making fun of I HAS A LOCKX!, but threads like these that are the most heavily trafficked threads on the front page. My two cents, anyway.

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ND,

If you, Thremp, and a few others never set foot in this thread, then this thread would be about 80 posts smaller and would be solely focusing on analyzing the football games.

But you guys felt the need to play board cops, and look what happened. That is what is hurting the board imo.


Assani

[Assani Fisher]

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Assani... why Denver @ -3? I jumped on the Jags at +3.5 because -3 for Denver is right where I thought the line should be.

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I feel as if I spent a ton of time discussing that in an earlier post...perhaps it just got lost in all of the nonsense here though. Here was what I said:




The very first line that jumped out to me was Denver -3 at home against Jacksonville. If you couldn't already tell by my picking against them the first two weeks, I think Jacksonville is tremendously overrated.

FACT: Jacksonville lost their last 3 games last year
FACT: Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in either game this year
FACT: The last time these two teams played, Denver won 20-7 in Jacksonville
FACT: Through two games this year Jacksonville has given up the most rushing yards in the league, while through two games this year Denver has rushed for the third most yards in the league.

IMHO Jacksonville is simply not a very good team. I don't know what their schedule looks like off-hand, so I'm not going to make an exact prediction on their record, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them as a 6-10 team. They just barely squeaked by a horrile ATL team at home last week. Why exactly are they only 3 point underdogs on the road(which means the teams would be even on a neutral field)?

As for Denver, I think many people are guilty of just looking at the scoreboard regarding them. People think "they barely beat two bad teams, so they can't be that good." What people don't realize is that Denver has moved the ball very well and stopped the other team very well, but they've struggled inside the red zone(on both sides of the football). I believe that is just variance and bad luck so far. Allow me to quote two posts on footballguys from moleculo and SSOG, which I believe sum up my viewpoints well:

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Denver has managed 400+ yards in both games. Denver leads the league in yards gained, and is 3rd in yards allowed. Denver is top 5 in rushing and passing yards per game, and first is passing yards allowed. On the other hand, Denver has only scored 3 TD's so far - 20th in the league, and is 27th in rushing D.

This offense is clicking at a high level so far, but simply failed to punch it in the end zone. Counting OT, Denver had five trips inside the 10, with three FG's yesterday. That will change - at least it better.

Of course, the raiders and the Bills aren't exactly cream of the crop teams. The Den O has been clicking the way one would expect them to. A mediocre O would put up some yards against these teams. What is concerning is the lack of TD's and the run D. both of these can haunt a team come playoff time, but there is plenty of time to fix.

Denver has struggled opening the season on the road the past few years - dropping games vs Mia and StL, specifically. While they should have killed the Bills, I was pleased with the win. The raiders always play the Broncos tough - divisional rivalry and all that.

Bottom line is that this team is finding a way to win. winning ugly is still winning. Wins like these will mean alot come playoff push time.

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Out of curiousity, are you watching the games, or are you basing that solely off of margin of victory and opponent faced? This isn't one of those "you obviously aren't watching the games!" accusations, I was just honestly curious. As a Broncos fan, I have to say, if you look at anything other than the actual score, you'd swear Denver won those two games by 40 combined points. I mean, outgaining Buffalo by 300 yards? Allowing 125 net passing yards in 130 minutes?

Denver is #1 in the NFL in yards per game (#5 in passing yards, #4 in rushing yards). Denver is #3 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (with Philly yet to play, so they'll likely be #2 in yards allowed per game after tonight), allowing 62.5 yards per game passing despite an 12% more football than the average NFL team (thanks to the OT). Denver has a positive turnover differential and a positive sack differential (including ranking 7th in the league in sacks and 3rd in the league in INTs). If this is the most unimpressive 2-0 start you've ever seen, I would suggest that maybe you haven't seen many 2-0 starts.

If Philly allows more than 222 yards tonight, then Denver and New England will be #1 and #2 in terms of yards per game and yards allowed per game. If Denver hadn't played overtime, it would have actually been #1 in both categories (and yes, that's even discounting the yards that Denver itself gained in overtime).

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As with all game, I will rethink things throughout the week, but as of now I can't see any reason why Denver -3 isn't a great pick.