***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[THAY3R]

As a Rays fan, I am for this.

Young has never shown any plate discipline, and they're loaded at OF anyways.

[SL__72]

As a Twins fan I'm pretty unsure of this. I think whether this goes down as a good deal for them or not depends a lot on Pridie. He never really did much in the minors until he made AAA this year where he raked for 250ab. Maybe the Twins saw something they liked back in '06 when he was in spring training with them.

If Pridie can be a starting CF for them this year I guess it is a great deal. If he doesn't amount to much, it probably isn't.

Also, I hope they don't think they are getting any kind of slugger in Delmon Young. Hes got potential, but he also has a ways to go before he is even a league average hitter.

[SL__72]

LEN3 (the Trib reporter who reported this deal) also said he found out today that the Twins are interested in Aaron Rowand but that it wasn't apparent whether or not they had offered him a contract yet.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
As a Twins fan I'm pretty unsure of this. I think whether this goes down as a good deal for them or not depends a lot on Pridie. He never really did much in the minors until he made AAA this year where he raked for 250ab. Maybe the Twins saw something they liked back in '06 when he was in spring training with them.

If Pridie can be a starting CF for them this year I guess it is a great deal. If he doesn't amount to much, it probably isn't.

Also, I hope they don't think they are getting any kind of slugger in Delmon Young. Hes got potential, but he also has a ways to go before he is even a league average hitter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the thing with the Twins. Their starting pitching, non Johan division, is Garza, Bonser, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey. If you replace Garza with Perkins, you've still got a damn good unit and Swarzak is knocking on the door (ie. ready, but with no room on the roster). Rincon was fungible for the Twins, in fact even though he's underpaid at $2.8MM was a drag on the payroll. Bartlett is their starting SS, but a mix of Casilla, Punto, and Harris can handle the middle until Trevor Plouffe is ready, which should be opening day 2009 at the latest. The Twins gave up very little here for one of the highest celings in the game.

Pridie is another 4th OF type, although at least he's got the potential to be better. That's not something you could say about the OF on the Twins roster right now.

Since Bartlett is destined to be a 4th IF and Rincon a 4th reliever, basically, for the Rays this deal comes down to Matt Garza for Delmon Young. There is no doubt that Delmon is the better bet going forward (higher ceiling, less injury risk, higher floor), and this is why the Twins win big, and the Rays lose.

[SL__72]

I think I'm higher on Garza and lower on Young then you. Maybe I'm weighting their performance this past year a little too much or something... Young has a long way to go (both at the plate and in the field) before he is an average corner outfielder.

/edit and I don't get the whole "until Plouffe is ready" thing. His upside is basically Bartlett.

[rwperu34]

Here's my reply on another forum;

[ QUOTE ]
Then trade Dukes and pawn the risk off on someone else. The Rays are gambling waaaaaay too much here, and not only that, they're the ones laying the odds. They now need Dukes to stay out of trouble, Baldelli to stay healthy, and Gomes to be good. None of those are good bets, and they need to hit at least a two player parlay.

On top of that, even if their ceilings were the same (they aren't), Garza is more risky than Delmon. All that risk, for what? A guy who's going to be a fourth infielder in two months and a guy who is arguably their fourth best reliever, even though he's going to make ~$2.8MM. Too much risk, not enough reward to make this worthwhile for the Rays.


[/ QUOTE ]

[rwperu34]

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I think I'm higher on Garza and lower on Young then you. Maybe I'm weighting their performance this past year a little too much or something... Young has a long way to go (both at the plate and in the field) before he is an average corner outfielder.

/edit and I don't get the whole "until Plouffe is ready" thing. His upside is basically Bartlett.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are higher on Garza and lower on Young. Put those guys on a range of outcomes, then what do you think? Young's ceiling is higher, because his ceiling is best RF in the game, and that's more valuable than the best SP in the game. Don't forget to factor in the 20% of the time Garza's career will be affected by a major injury, compared to the 5% for Delmon. You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

I don't want this to get into a debate over who's better now or even who has more future value, but when talking ceiling, I hope you can see why Plouffe's is much better than Bartlett.

[gehrig]

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You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

[/ QUOTE ]
man wtf

uzr has young at 15 runs below average in the field last year. VORP has young at 5 runs above replacement and 16 runs below average last year. young is seriously terrible. dude is not going to turn into miguel cabrera.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at it as Garza is better now, and even that's arguable.

[/ QUOTE ]

young is seriously terrible. dude is not going to turn into miguel cabrera.

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Is this some kind of level?

[Vyse]

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Young's ceiling is higher, because his ceiling is best RF in the game

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not his ceiling. He has very little chance of becoming this. His more likely ceiling is .300/.350/.550. Something should not be considered a "ceiling" when there's like a 2% chance of it happening. Then anyone would have the ceiling of the best player at their position.

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and that's more valuable than the best SP in the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

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Young really isn't all that good. His line last year : .288/.316/.408 and his Minor League numbers aren't that far off. He has little, if any, plate discipline and is very overrated, imo. Both Crawford and Upton are better and the Rays can probably scrap together a decent replacement. Loosing Harris and the other prospects, though, I agree is kinda questionable but overall I don't think this is really bad a move. Garza was pretty good last year and is pretty young. He should compliment Shields/Kazmir nicely and give the rays a pretty good rotation to which they can later add the studs they have developing in the minors when they are ready.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. Young sucks. Garza is perfect for TB. This is good for the Twins too since they need hitting so badly and have no upside in their farm system, but still, Young's insanely overrated.