50NL; AA vs. known 2+2'er

[Lego05]

Villian is a 2+2'er: BlackIce781.

I have him at 17.69/13.51/3.85 postflop agg. over 1340 hands.
I've 4bet him twice at this table in like the last 10 or 15 minutes.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($52.55)
UTG ($19.05)
MP ($154.35)
Button ($8.95)
Hero ($68.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls $2, UTG folds.


I check the flop cause...I believe his range here has to be almost only pocket pairs with maayybe some suited connectors. And I thought he'd fold a pocket pair if it didn't set up so I wanted to check call and go from there.

Flop: ($5.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.



Since I played it this way I thought he could be betting the turn again with a weaker hand.


Turn: ($13.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10.


Now I'm torn...?

River: ($33.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $36.05 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[shoxbb6]

I can't fold, your hand looks like its trying to get to showdown.

[Sense1ess]

I probably check-raise the turn.

[Keitan]

The flop c/c is fine. But on the turn i much prefer a c/r because it's about time to find out where you really stand. The river is tricky because your passive play makes it looks like you can be bluffed off your hand so he could be and should be bluffing here quite a bit. But then if he's bluffing would he overbet the pot like this??

As played and assuming he's decent I think this is a marginal spot. Call if you don't mind the variance.

[Brian O'Nolan]

Def. tough spot on the river... seems pretty unlikely he could be vbetting worse. I guess it could be like 87 or something he decides is not good enough to showdown. He has to have air here like 25% of the time here to call... seems like a fold to me but I guess based on your history it could be a call. I think a turn c/r is good here- better if you cbet flop &amp; check turn. Not a real big fan of checking flop &amp; turn here.

[ssdex]

I fold, I dont think ICE is shoving thin here, I think he is shoving for value----- it is very unlikely he triple barrel bluff's here, he probably checks behind with a worse hand on river.

fwiw I c/r flop or turn---- also i think slowplaying AA oop against regs is bad--- better against fish who will stack off lighter

[vixticator]

I think you can rule out KK/QQ or very small part of range at best. River looks like KQ or something but with so much weakness shown I think this could be a loose push. Need to push turn as played IMO. Either just a bluff, AK, KQ or set, maybe straight but unlikely. Don't know how to assign probability to the first two, with this much history you should have an idea unless these are just datamined stats.

[kaz2107]

if u r gonna play ur hand like this u have to call the river shove. u have underepresented ur hand so much up to this point he can shove any thing (i have no idea who this guy is but an aggro person would b inclined to this with n e 2 in this spot.)

[Hail Eris]

I hate this line, but your hand looks like third pair here, so folding is out of the question now.

[GtrHtr]

I don't mean to sound overly critical, so take this with that in mind:

This is the worst line you could've taken. If you're going to give a "known 2p2er" this kind of credit, fold preflop, seriously.

Put him on a range ffs, QQ is at most 25% of that range, raise the flop or secondly c/r him a serious amount.

By the time you get to the turn with your line, you have no idea where you are. You have him at almost 4 in af over a million hands or whatever, and he WILL two and three barrel you to death based on that one stat alone.

By the river, maybe he got there, you certainly have no idea because if he did get there, you gave him a free ride.

Sorry again, but it isn't personal.