The state of Notre Dame football.

[shemp]

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Out of 2000+ predictions, only 10 brave, depressing souls predicted our probable final record of 5-7.

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Really?

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As much as Bigdaddy is in denial, the sad thing is he is one of the most reasonable Domers out there, as evidenced by this article. "Rivals says he recruits well, so he is awesome!"

So many excuses, its amazing. Just a huge amount of denial, it could only be from Catholics. Oh well, you guys are going to have to learn the hard way after he brings you down so low, the only national title you can compete for is Division III.

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I'm an idiot and didn't see this coming at all-- but 5-7 is the probable final record is in an entirely different category. In what sense "probable"?

How about: You hold that thought, raise as much money as you have/can find, and I'll give you 2:1 on it and make a hefty donation to ND in your name-- whether I/you win or lose the bet!

It's funny that it is actually progress when ND fan says that of course their coach had a ton to learn about running a program-- they were the only folks who didn't think it was likely. Funnier still that they now confess to have been deeply skeptical of that silly contract extension.

[FlyWf]

Austiger- I suspect that you're using football years and ND is using scholastic years. Not that it makes you wrong if you are, you're clearly right. I'd love to see someone(calling Michigan bloggers!) do a ND/OSU/LSU comparison. Especially OSU, who has been easily out-recruited by ND since their bowl game.

[MyTurn2Raise]

congrats to Weis for raiding the Nebraska pantry as their ship sinks

well...at least one of the big boys is going down hard

[domer2]

This year's record nonwithstanding, this is the second greatest recruiting class Notre Dame has ever had (with Floyd and Jonas Gray), barely behind 1988. Number 3 isn't close. This could end up being the best if Weis closes with a couple more and holds onto the commitments.

He is getting it done in that area. In 2008, we will be way too loaded with talent for any excuses. Plus we get Gary Gray back from injury -- future Sundayer. I think our defense will be a huge strength in 2008, it'll be up to Weis to get Clausen ready to go. There will be no flirting with a spread offense.

[Bigdaddydvo]

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Okay, I found Auburn's participation stats. I'd love to see Florida's too, but here are ours compared to ND's. I combined the Sr and 5th yr senior totals for ND since I don't have Auburn's separated.

NOTRE DAME - eight games played
Fr - 15
So - 48
Jr - 45
Sr - 68

Auburn (8 games):
Fr - 38
So - 37
Jr - 43
Sr - 58

NOTRE DAME OFFENSIVE LINE
Fr - 0
So - 16
Jr - 16
Sr - 8

Auburn:
Fr - 20
So - 0
Jr - 16
Sr - 4

QB:
NOTRE DAME
Fr - 6
So - 1
Jr - 1
Sr - 0
5th- 0

Auburn:
Fr- 1
Sr- 7

Also the overall numbers don't include special teams. Auburn's kicker and punter are both freshmen. Most of our KO returns have been by a freshman. Our punt returner is a junior, but was replaced by a freshman @ LSU. I have no idea what ND's special teams experience is, but you can't get younger than that.

So all in all, Auburn is actually less experienced by a decent margin. ND's schedule is 2nd toughest according to Sagarin. Auburn's is #3. So that excuse doesn't hold either.

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Nice work compiling these.

Obviously, Auburn has done a much, much better job of working in their young talent into the lineup. CW's approach to the same problem has thus far proved to be disasterous. It was the first time in 3 yrs as the ND coach that he's had to contend with a problem like this, and he's failed miserably thus far.

[Bigdaddydvo]

[ QUOTE ]
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Out of 2000+ predictions, only 10 brave, depressing souls predicted our probable final record of 5-7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

[/ QUOTE ]

As much as Bigdaddy is in denial, the sad thing is he is one of the most reasonable Domers out there, as evidenced by this article. "Rivals says he recruits well, so he is awesome!"

So many excuses, its amazing. Just a huge amount of denial, it could only be from Catholics. Oh well, you guys are going to have to learn the hard way after he brings you down so low, the only national title you can compete for is Division III.

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Sigh. It's a Catholic thing now? Do we need to move this thread over to SMP?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Tom, Bernie, Shemp, MT2R, et al,

I don't think our opinions on the state of the ND program are THAT far off from one another...I mainly think the differences are more sharply contrasted by the fact that I really really like Notre Dame and most of you really really don't. So, I'd like to make a couple general statements about the program that hopefully we can reach a consensus on:

1) Weis was moderately successful in his first two years, achieving the first back to back 9+ win seasons since '92-'93. While lacking a "signature win," Weis regularly defeated average teams that had given the Irish problems under previous coaching regimes (MSU in '05 notwithstanding). In short, he beat the teams he was supposed to beat...this was a huge sigh of relief for anyone that endured the Bob Davie/Ty Willingham era. Based on his performance in '05-'06, Charlie Weis is a capable head coach when leading a veteran team.

2) Weis has done an atrocious job this year of incorporating young talent into the starting lineup, and his focus on schemes vs. football fundamentals of running/passing/blocking/tackling has led to disasterous results on the football field. There might be some explanations for the team's performance (inexperience and tough schedule) but no excuse for how poorly the team has played. Weis, even with said explanations, is solidly responsible for the product on the field.

3) Weis is actively rectifying any talent deficiencies through hard and very productive work on the recruiting trail. When his third top ten class is wrapped up (likely the best in the nation), next year he'll have all of the talent and experience he needs to field a competitive Irish squad. If he fails, count on most Domers to politely request his resignation.

Is this analysis fair enough?

[Bigdaddydvo]

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congrats to Weis for raiding the Nebraska pantry as their ship sinks

well...at least one of the big boys is going down hard

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LOL.

Actually, ND was always the top choice for #3 rated RB Jonas Gray. ND hadn't offered a scholarship to him early enough, since their top choices Frostproof RB Carlton Thomas committed to UGA, while Ryan Williams and Cyrus Gray remain uncommitted. The Irish then had several transfers that free up spots for this class, Gray decommitted from NU, ND offered, and Gray accepted.

Circumstances simply worked out to make this kid an offer, and since he was high on ND to begin with, it's really a natural fit.

[shemp]

That is fair enough on the ground you covered:

1) 05-06, ND had good years, and Weis deserves credit.
2) Weis deserves credit for successful recruiting.
3) Weis has failed to prepared his team well for 07.

We differ on degrees here and there, and then there are other areas of disagreement, but yeah, okay.

[damaniac]

Of course Shemp I think the issue is what are their prospects going forward? They have talent, albeit young talent, and more coming in. So from the first three seasons, what can we tell about Weis' ability to lead the team?

The first two seasons show he can do a pretty good job with excellent talent. This year shows that he has badly misjudged how to handle a young team. Now, maybe he learns from this, and maybe that + getting a more talented, experience team means he does okay.

But my concern is this: he obviously screwed up in a big way with whatever he did with this team to wind up THIS bad (again, not so much they're losing against this schedule as looking atrocious). So when someone makes decisions that are ultimately awful, how much do I trust their decision-making abilities in the future on other issues? That's the direction I'm going in.