Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision

[hamnegger]

i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades"

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades"

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to jam 16k into a 9k pot? You realize you have to be ahead something like 75% of the time for this to be profitable.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.181% 47.20% 01.98% 44863 1879.00 { Kh9d }
Hand 1: 50.819% 48.84% 01.98% 46419 1879.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo }

I don't think you get 25% FE magically here against a range that crushes yours.

[MNoller]

[ QUOTE ]
i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and [b[im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades"[/b]

[/ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, you don't want to fold out spades. You want them to call getting the wrong odds. If you shove, you're making it very easy for your opponent to play perfectly.

[Cornell Fiji]

MJ,
Your final analysis is correct (shoving the flop is really bad and is typical of those afflicted with 'I am nervous making tough decisions so I am going to put my chips into the middle because its easiest' syndrome).

Unfortunately you have two major errors in your calculations:
1) You either assume that either we have 0% fold equity or you simply forgot to account for the chips gained when the villain folds. Since the villain folds sometimes (oftentimes) we need less than 50% equity when called for a shove to be +cEV

and

2) Your calling range is way off

You also made a major error in logic:
We should not make decisions because they are +cEV. We should make decisions because they are maxEV. Shoving here is +cEV... but it isn't even close to being the best way to play the hand.

[MJBuddy]

That's not the calling range, that's the pre-flop calling range.

[All_In_Olly]

I don't normally try stealing against 2 players, and don't think this hand is good enough for a value raise pre flop so I would check.

On the flop you have 17k behind with 10k in the pot, for me if you make any 1/2 pot size bet or more and you are pot committed.
I check, and fold to a strong bet/AI.

If he bets weak (1/2 pot or less) I check raise AI.

As played, on the turn you're pot comitted but WA/WB, just get it all in.