Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[ArcticKnight]

1 = 10%
2 = 25%
3 = less than 5% (Not every TD in scenerio 3 will be unneeded. For example, if your WR turns what should be 20 yard gain into a TD on the 1st play, you just left more than 2 minutes on the board. Your TD is hardly unneeded at that point.

I think you are driving at the fact that coaches are making -EV decisions early in the game that may see them needing a TD as opposed to a field goal late in the game, not fully realizing that they would be better off playing for 2 after a TD on many more occasions than they do. That is why you used "down by 5 points."

You are going to use our own numbers to show 2 point frequency rates and then discuss the gap between the percentages in questions 1 and 2.