$30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?

[bozzer]

villain is a 2p2er, but we haven't played before, and we haven't interacted much at this table, which i've been on for a few orbits. I've probably been fairly active but other than that not sure how he sees me (perhaps he can clarify [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $37.05
BB: $52.00
UTG: $56.85
CO: $60.00
Hero (BTN): $28.85

CO posts $0.30
Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.35</font>, SB calls $1.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.35</font>, SB calls $2.35

Turn: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero?

[jonyy6788]

BEAT: You're both sitting $30 deep at a $60 BI

Ummm, as far as the hand goes.....figure out his flop calling range and turn folding/calling range.

If we were 200bb deep I'd prolly bet b/c I want to build a pot in case I hit the nizzies.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]

Ummm, as far as the hand goes.....figure out his flop calling range and turn folding/calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep. if i could do that i wouldn't have posted the hand. thoughts for a standard 2p2er?

[jonyy6788]

check against normal 2+2'er

I really think that he prolly has 33, 77, KQ, AQ, or 88-99

Just realize that it was a rainbow board and I don't give NL30'ers much credit for calling OOP with mid PPs that make 2nd pair.

[derosnec]

i would check. dry flop, no scare on turn, and your BFD/gutshot is disguised, so you have implied odds.

edit: actually, i might like a bet to build the pot.

[Restlys]

id do another PSB on that turn, implied odds dont give you his stack, not when the pot is 8 $ thats the way i see it plus he checked to you so mb hes weak and will fold right then and there cuz he thought you cbet and he has PP weaker than Q

[ajmargarine]

Meh, so much 'feel' here, 'metagame' 'shania' '2p2 playback factor'

Why on earth would you play the deepstack games, short?

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
check against normal 2+2'er

I really think that he prolly has 33, 77, KQ, AQ, or 88-99



[/ QUOTE ]

thanks. everyone like this range? what about QJ?

[ QUOTE ]

Just realize that it was a rainbow board and I don't give NL30'ers much credit for calling OOP with mid PPs that make 2nd pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite sure what you mean here...



i think against a random unl player this is a clear check (low FE, good implied odds).

against a 2p2er the dry flop has got to strengthen his range a bit. assuming he's equally likely to check-call with sets and one pair hands, i get 6 set combos, 24 top pair combos and 12 pp combos for 42 combos total using jonny's range.


my equity against that range is ~30%. Equity on <font color="red">checking</font> is therefore $8 * .30 + implied odds = $2.4 + implied odds

If i <font color="red">bet</font> he'll fold 88-99 100%, fold KQ and lower queens lets say 50% and call 50% and he'll always call with AQ. He'll always shove with sets.

let's bet $5.5.

I think 12 (pps) + 6 (50% KQ) = folds 42%+ of his range.

so $8 * 0.42 = +$3.36 (or more)

if he calls it's basically breakeven + implied odds ($19 * 0.28 - $5.5 = -$0.16).

if he checkraises all in it will be $19.65 / $57.2 = 34% so i have to fold, losing $5.5. this should happen with sets 14% (6/42) of the time. 0.14 * $5.5 = -$0.78.

$3.36 + implied odds - $0.78 = $2.58 + implied odds

so in immediate EV terms this is very close given our assumptions!

betting leaves me with about $9 into a $19 pot, so i'd estimate my implied odds at about $7ish.

checking leaves the pot at $8, but he'll probably call a psb with most of his range, so again about $7ish.

(edit: except that when we bet we only get the implied odds 44% of the time, but get them 100% of the time when we check. does that shade it to a check then?)


if anyone wants to check that my method for working this out is correct that would be helpful (and probably useful for you).

any thoughts on the assumptions? (eg. does he cr AQ much?)

more generally, i think it's worth spending time thinking about these borderline cases, so then if any factors change we'll have a much better idea which line to take.

[Asheh]

No idea about all your odds talk, but i bet here.

[fees]

betting here is good because him having a big hand is tough