NFL undefeated season prop

[mogwai316]

[ QUOTE ]


Might want to check again, Bodog paid me on Sunday.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, still shows on my Open Bets page. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Date placed:
Oct 16, 2007 3:55p Single #89294908
Football - NFL Team Props (Prop) Moneyline
Will the Indianapolis Colts finish the Season Undefeated 19-0?
All wagers have action. No Parlays. Max $100
(1645) No -2400 Sun@1:00p

[thing85]

Bodog put up some lines that could make for a pseudo-arb if you're interested:

NE goes 15-1 (+100) [Bodog]
Team goes 16-0 (+138) [WSEX]

Seems to be that if "No team goes 16-0" is -163, the 15-1 prop on Bodog for +100 would have value. We're obviously making the assumption that it would be highly unlikely for NE to go 14-2 or worse. I'm interested in others' thoughts on this.

[NajdorfDefense]

Loss to Pitt and loss at NYG with 14-1 and #1 bye locked up is certainly possible.

[thing85]

True. I guess it all depends your estimate of the % chance of that happening.

[NajdorfDefense]

IF they are 14-1? > 50%.

[thing85]

No, the % chance of 14-2 as of right now.

[MCS]

Bet $119 at +100 to win $119.
Bet $100 at +138 to win $138.

Profit if one of these hits is $19.
Loss if neither of these hits is $219.

So you are risking $219 to win $19, meaning you need to win about 92.3% of the time. I would guess this bet combination is -EV.

[alwardc4]

I noticed these lines and think there may be value.

Brady will break TD mark
NO +900

Doesn't injury and resting him at the end of the season pretty much cover these odds itself?


Pats undefeated
NO +150

If you put it at something like .96 .94 .85 .97 .95 .7 you get about 50/50. However, this bet may have better value in a week as it may get really high despite just a .96 going off the board.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
I noticed these lines and think there may be value.

Brady will break TD mark
NO +900

Doesn't injury and resting him at the end of the season pretty much cover these odds itself?


Pats undefeated
NO +150

If you put it at something like .96 .94 .85 .97 .95 .7 you get about 50/50. However, this bet may have better value in a week as it may get really high despite just a .96 going off the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both those numbers are from Sportsbook, and both are arbable. 5Dimes is the best place to bet the other sides (-700 and -125).

Anyway, I don't like your individual game numbers. Using Sportsbook's "Games of the Year", we can fill in these lines:

Phi -22
at Bal
Pitt -15
NYJ
Mia
at NYG -11

When they put up their Week 13 lines (probably tomorrow), we will have a line for the Baltimore game.

Here's my lines, with the pct to win:

Phi -22 93%
at Bal -22 93%
Pitt -15 89%
NYJ -24 94%
Mia -26 95%
at NYG -11 83%

I am not sure how to assign a pct for the huge lines, but I just made quick guesses. Using comparable lines from this week, we can easily get 83% and 89% for the NYG and Pitt games.

That 70% you throw in at the end seems way off.

Using these guesstimates, we come up with NE being 57.1% to win out. This would still be +EV betting NOT 16-0 at +150, but I wouldn't trust these numbers that much. Personally, I think you are better off just arbing this against 5Dimes.

[Post-Oak]

I just checked and I found one site (5 Dimes) which offers a moneyline for this week's NE game.

Phi +22 +1500
NE -22 -3000

This works out to NE being expected to win 93.9%. Plugging in new numbers:

Phi -22 94%
at Bal -22 94%
Pitt -15 89%
NYJ -24 95%
Mia -26 95.5%
at NYG -11 83%

We get 59.2% for NE to win out.