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#11
11-09-2007, 07:29 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob. [/ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the units I made this year have been when I wear blue socks. If you'd faded him last year you would've gotten killed. I think Dr. Bob is a fairly solid 53-54% handicapper. He's got to move the line 7% for you to have an advantage against -110 (that's like moving an NCAA line through the 3). It happens, but he doesn't move most lines enough to do this arbitrarily. [/ QUOTE ] ummmm...you would've won fading him last year as he does push through the 3 and we live in markets that are better than -110 pricing and his record last year was meh 
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#12
11-09-2007, 11:55 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
I guess he was only 57% last year and moving the lines pretty large, so fading at the apex may have turned a profit. It was the two years before that where he had great records. Stats above refer to college as he doesn't move NFL lines much.
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#13
11-10-2007, 02:55 AM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob. [/ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the units I made this year have been when I wear blue socks. If you'd faded him last year you would've gotten killed. I think Dr. Bob is a fairly solid 53-54% handicapper. He's got to move the line 7% for you to have an advantage against -110 (that's like moving an NCAA line through the 3). It happens, but he doesn't move most lines enough to do this arbitrarily. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent. My point, just too lazy to explain. I get sick of the donkeys being happy about being on the other side of a capper who is ten times smarter than you.
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#14
11-12-2007, 08:26 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob. [/ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the units I made this year have been when I wear blue socks. If you'd faded him last year you would've gotten killed. I think Dr. Bob is a fairly solid 53-54% handicapper. He's got to move the line 7% for you to have an advantage against -110 (that's like moving an NCAA line through the 3). It happens, but he doesn't move most lines enough to do this arbitrarily. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent. My point, just too lazy to explain. I get sick of the donkeys being happy about being on the other side of a capper who is ten times smarter than you. [/ QUOTE ] I may be wrong but isn't Dr. Bob a documented 64% over the last 10 years in CFF? All these idiots act like fading this guy is genius. Anyone who is in the ame this long is bound to run bad for a while. BTW not sure of his college plays but he crushed it on his nfl plays this week.
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#15
11-12-2007, 08:30 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
I may be wrong but isn't Dr. Bob a documented 64% over the last 10 years in CFF? [/ QUOTE ] You are wrong. [ QUOTE ] All these idiots act like fading this guy after he moves the line is genius. [/ QUOTE ] FYP - DUCY?
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#16
11-12-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to go against him? A large chunk of the units I've made so far this year have come from fading Dr Bob. [/ QUOTE ] Rarely +EV to wear blue socks? A large chunk of the units I made this year have been when I wear blue socks. If you'd faded him last year you would've gotten killed. I think Dr. Bob is a fairly solid 53-54% handicapper. He's got to move the line 7% for you to have an advantage against -110 (that's like moving an NCAA line through the 3). It happens, but he doesn't move most lines enough to do this arbitrarily. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent. My point, just too lazy to explain. I get sick of the donkeys being happy about being on the other side of a capper who is ten times smarter than you. [/ QUOTE ] I may be wrong but isn't Dr. Bob a documented 64% over the last 10 years in CFF? [/ QUOTE ] No, last 3 years, he said he 'rejiggered' his models so his bad year before that doesn't count. It's this sort of 'logic' from him that makes me doubt his wisdom. 5 years including this year he's under 50% twice, 57%, 61%, and one 71% year, way above any other season he ever had [obvs]. He also shuts it down early when he runs hot early, and picks more and more games if he's cold: 103 picks - 46% 90 picks - 62% 74 picks - 71% You paid for a whole season, but got 39% less picks...when he was supposedly 'handicapping' better than anyone. When he's doing badly you got 29 more picks that lost on average --see the big problem? See the trend? Yao and others have pointed out [in multiple places] that you have to watch out for 'cappers who do this -- I forget the name of the 'capper that got famous for betting more and higher as season wore on and he was down. His 5-yr average [since 2003] is just over 55%, certainly a winning bettor, but virtually all due to that super-hot 71% year where he shut it down early. 4 outta the 5 past years combined he's EV=0. Can someone give me the official stats on DrBob this year, I haven't updated past few weeks.
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#17
11-12-2007, 08:49 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I may be wrong but isn't Dr. Bob a documented 64% over the last 10 years in CFF? [/ QUOTE ] You are wrong. [ QUOTE ] All these idiots act like fading this guy after he moves the line is genius. [/ QUOTE ] FYP - DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] WTF does this mean. If he's not 64% than what is he? The ESPN bit I saw on him quoted this percentage.
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#18
11-12-2007, 08:51 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
As mentioned repeatedly, that's his win% for 3 years, because he wants you to ignore his bad years before that because he 'changed his models' so bad years aren't counted anymore LDO.
240 games is not a long-term sample size, earlier results need to be included DUCY?
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#19
11-12-2007, 08:52 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I may be wrong but isn't Dr. Bob a documented 64% over the last 10 years in CFF? [/ QUOTE ] You are wrong. [ QUOTE ] All these idiots act like fading this guy after he moves the line is genius. [/ QUOTE ] FYP - DUCY? [/ QUOTE ] WTF does this mean. If he's not 64% than what is he? The ESPN bit I saw on him quoted this percentage. [/ QUOTE ] and we all tore apart the ESPN bit for lack of professional journalism and not having documented results
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