A2s: Donks ahoy! - Page 2

Heisenb3rg · #11 07-20-2006, 10:20 AM

check, and Id definitly call a bet from the PFR.

First, if you are behind to a king, KQ/KJ/KT, you have 4-5 outs.
Second, if you are ahead, and catch an ace. You will earn somce nice bets from you're opponent.
Third, if you are ahead and he decides to not follow up on the turn, you can win the pot this way.

If theres a bet from the PF raiser, and one or more calls. I'd lay it down though. Cause now you have to worry a lot more about other draws + re-draws + domination. Also, now you're a lot less likely to be ahead.

There is a lot of hands raised PF that this didnt hit.

True · #12 07-20-2006, 10:38 AM

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If theres a bet from the PF raiser, and one or more calls. I'd lay it down though. Cause now you have to worry a lot more about other draws + re-draws + domination. Also, now you're a lot less likely to be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think the better odds make up for it?

True

poker_n00b · #13 07-20-2006, 10:48 AM

This donk bet cannot be profitable. If it is I might seriously consider stop playing poker.

P Chippa · #14 07-20-2006, 10:55 AM

Donking into a PFR and a PF cold caller OOP seems wrong. A couple things not brought up yet:

1) SB could be drooling in wait for that C/R with his KQ

2) The donk doesn't seem as bad if the thinking is along the lines of this - The PFR is hyper-agressive and will auto raise any bet in front of him which will fold the other players, leaving me with a good chance of being in the lead. This is a stretch IMO though.

jba · #15 07-20-2006, 11:01 AM

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If theres a bet from the PF raiser, and one or more calls. I'd lay it down though. Cause now you have to worry a lot more about other draws + re-draws + domination. Also, now you're a lot less likely to be ahead.

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don't you think the better odds make up for it?

True

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the immediate odds are better but implied odds are much worse. I'd feel ok about putting in three bets on an ace or a deuce turn really only if it was HU with the PFR.

i'm not sure I'd dump though, I assume we will probably be closing the action and I'd probably take one off.

added: I don't like the donk, for the simple reason that I think our hand is pretty [censored]. so [censored] that if we end up putting in two bets on the flop I'm sure we are losing monies.

waffle · #16 07-20-2006, 03:18 PM

Results:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac 2c (two pair, kings and twos).
MP has 7s As (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 7 BB.

Heisenb3rg · #17 07-20-2006, 04:29 PM

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[ QUOTE ]

If theres a bet from the PF raiser, and one or more calls. I'd lay it down though. Cause now you have to worry a lot more about other draws + re-draws + domination. Also, now you're a lot less likely to be ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think the better odds make up for it?

True

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Nope. Think of it this way.
Against the PF raiser you're getting

9 to 1 immediate pot odds

1. You have the chance of having the best hand and him not firing the turn
2. Hitting a 2 is likely to be clean, and aces are probabily clean
3. If you hit an ace, chances are fairly high that you will win some additional bets. This is because he could very well have just an ace with a higher kicker, and he'll possibly call you down with say KQ. You'll lose more to AK,KK,AA, but the other holdings are more likely. Flush draw is also unlikely.

Now let's add two callers into the mix.
You are now getting 11 to 1, but there's now some big differences.

1. You are now very unlikely to have the best hand, so almost eliminate the scenario that he checks behind turn and you're hand holds up.
2. If anyones drawing to a flush it really screws you. (it's possible)
You're ace of hearts is no good. If you hit an ace or 2 on the turn you still have a good chance to get outdrawn on the river.
3. A8 is also a distinct possiblity for one of the callers. Making you're A outs questionable.
4. Someone could be slowplaynig a set, making both you're ace and 2 no good, AND making you lose a lot of bets if you hit it in the future.

Since the immediate odds are 11 to 1, and you're drawing to 5 outs. You have to at the very least discount 1.5-3 outs, and there are pretty much no implied odds. On the loose side id estimate you had 3 outs here, with little-no implied odds.

makes it a fold.

Middle limit hold em by bob ciaffone has excellent insight into just how unprofitable drawing to 2 pairs against multiple callers with a flush draw on the board often is. Changed the way I think about these situations.

Caddy_4_Life · #18 07-20-2006, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Results:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (7 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac 2c (two pair, kings and twos).
MP has 7s As (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 7 BB. 

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Waffle, don't let results hinder your improvement.. it's like the player in the casino who always raises K7s..why? because it won him a big pot once. We all know this type of player. Our mind is good at playing tricks on us.

-Caddy

waffle · #19 07-20-2006, 04:48 PM

F off, I just provided them for informational purposes. Did I ever say it was good cuz of the results?

Caddy_4_Life · #20 07-20-2006, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
F off, I just provided them for informational purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get worked up. I thought you were justifying your line. If you weren't, no worries. We're all trying to help each other improve. F offs aren't needed.

-Caddy