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#1
06-04-2007, 02:39 AM
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Re: What I did...
[ QUOTE ]
Nate betting out seems fine if you intend to 3bet a button raise. [/ QUOTE ] If I bet, the BB calls, and the Button raises, then I'm certainly 3-betting, because the best case is that I can get the BB to make an incorrect fold, and the worst case is that I'm collecting fair share equity on my draw 3-ways. I don't know whether there are the same incentives to 3-bet if it gets heads up. The problems I see here are as follows: 1) Although I suspect that I am probably a coinflip or a slight favorite against his range when he raises the flop, I doubt that's the case if he chooses to make it four bets, or (worse) he calls and raises the turn. 2) I think it tends to make the river play problematic if I do not improve. If he just calls my 3-bet and the turn goes bet-call, then there is very little point to my betting out on the river. He probably isn't calling with worse (although a Q-high calldown would not shock me) and he probably isn't folding better -- he certainly isn't folding a pair, and I think he's probably smart enough to treat a better king-high hand as a bluff-catcher on this board (which means among other things that he'd probably not raise the flop with it in the first place). OTOH, if I check the river after leading the flop/turn, I think he might take the hint that I'm trying for a free showdown and will play fairly optimally. Put differently, I actually want him to think that I have a draw here, and to continue betting his whatever in order to fold out a draw, because he doesn't know that my draw happens to have pretty good showdown value. 3) If behind, he generally only has 4 outs and he will usually charge himself to draw to these outs anyway. In addition, there is some incentive to let him draw to cards that make me a flush but make him a pair or -- if I'm exceptionally lucky -- some kind of straight. 
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