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  #41  
Old 11-16-2007, 09:13 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

[ QUOTE ]
utg is a spazz

[/ QUOTE ]

There is your answer. The reasons for raising the flop:
1. Your hand range has been narrowed to AsKs, AJ, AA-QQ. Given this, BB can't continue with a pocket pair. Even continuing with QT for 2bets is dubious on this paired, flushing board.

2. Once BB is out of the way, you can actually win UI some % of the time. While I agree that the majority of UTG's range contains a pair, some of it doesn't. Also, some of those pairs lose to a board pairing Jack.

3. Getting 3bet ain't that bad.
Board: Js 9s 9h
Hand 0: 62.982% 62.88% 00.10% 13695 22.50 { KK-JJ, 99, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 37.018% 36.91% 00.10% 8040 22.50 { AsKs }
Vs. this tight 3betting range, you're still getting back 74% of what you put in if it is HU.

4. Getting 3bet, or having BB not fold, is a great way to find out, with little equity loss, just where our AsKs ranks right now. I'm not a big fan of "raising for info", but in this case, raising has the nice side effect of giving us info.

5. You DO get a free card often. I feel that you are more likely to get a free card than you are to get 3bet, but from what you said, you don't, and you're the one who knows UTG.

6. There are many holdings for UTG for which you are gaining equity by raising as you have 15 outs.

In summary, you potentially lose very little by raising the flop, while standing to gain a bunch. You fold out chops, 2-3outers, and winners from the BB. Frequent free card. Info.
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  #42  
Old 11-17-2007, 12:21 AM
goofball goofball is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

Call.
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  #43  
Old 11-17-2007, 01:55 AM
worm33 worm33 is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

Wouldnt the BB fold the flop here with AQ? Your hand almost for surely looks like AQ or AK, which is not good news for his hand.
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  #44  
Old 11-17-2007, 07:25 AM
PokerBob PokerBob is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldnt the BB fold the flop here with AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my assumption.
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  #45  
Old 11-17-2007, 11:30 AM
Carmine Carmine is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

Well descriping UTG as "spazz" confuses the handreading process for the readers. We can't range UTG accuratly or what his donk is likely to mean. Without this information it's hard to get into the leveling process of the BB. We obviously know where PB is in the hand but what BB is thinking/ranging after PB turn call is going to be hard for us to judge.

I don't think BB shows up at this river with a Kx hand or 88. As was mentioned I think A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is on the top of the list. AJ is another canidate. Even if we didn't discount QQ we are still better than 50% to make this call and I definalty think BB would make this move with AJ unless he know UTG would never donk the flop with less than trips.
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  #46  
Old 11-17-2007, 03:26 PM
Bicycles_Biatch Bicycles_Biatch is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

Any chance he has Q-10 of spades and played it passively because of the paired board and your rock tight image?

Don't see how he peels this flop with a naked A-Q.
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  #47  
Old 11-17-2007, 05:57 PM
Schneids Schneids is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wouldnt the BB fold the flop here with AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

Closing the action, esp with a Qs in his hand, he may not. Especially if he plays a lot online.
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  #48  
Old 11-17-2007, 07:21 PM
CAMEL1111 CAMEL1111 is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

You have to call it down here.
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  #49  
Old 11-17-2007, 07:37 PM
Chris Daddy Cool Chris Daddy Cool is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

i'd fold. what kind of retarded bluff this would be? bare minimum, you are chopping and that is pretty optimistic imo.
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  #50  
Old 11-17-2007, 10:40 PM
Kayber2 Kayber2 is offline
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Default Re: pay off?

I fold. Super duper players don't try to bluff here into 2 people (very often anyway)
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