200NL 150BB Value on this river?

[Nick Royale]

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bet and smile when he calls with J9s.

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As much as this result proves nothing I'm not suprised at all.

[aislephive]

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I shove. Villian almost always has JJ+.

Edit: FTR, I check QQ.

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Jeez, did anyone look at the hand? BvB deep, Villain has decent set value with any pair for starters, there are many other ways you could be beat.

There are exactly 5 pairs you beat, and 3 of them I seriously doubt get this far, and aren't paying you off anyway. So if you bet, 6 pairs beat you and are all calling, and you are ahead of 2 that may or may not call. And that's just the pairs.

Edit: 7 pairs that beat you, he's never folding AA if he plays it this way.

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If he is never folding AA then it's an easy shove with KK for many reasons of which should be obvious.

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So you are saying "If he is calling with AA every time, you should shove KK for many obvious reasons." Somehow I'm having trouble coming up with even one. Clearly you are thinking on a more sophisticated level. Perhaps you can enlighten me?

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I think A5 is saying if villain calls with AA he will also call with QQ/JJ/AT etc, because he won't expect us to push with KK. Villain think our range is polarized between sets/straights and air.

I'm not sure though, I don't agree with this reasoning at all.

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Thanks, that must be what he means. If so, there are three little letters that come to mind, two of which are "L". I'm done.

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So villain is always calling with AA but never calling with QQ/JJ/Tx? Maybe this is true for some players (ie bad ones), but against almost anybody who has any concept of relative hand values you will get a call from AA about as often as JJ. I would NOT expect most $200nl players to be cagy enough to value bet an overpair on the river here, and because of that as villain I would be very tempted to look up your average tag on the river.

If you're saying AA is an easy call played this way, or at least you think villain will never fold AA when he takes this line, then in the same breath saying the river is an easy fold for QQ/JJ is laughable. The only difference between the two is that when he has AA we can value bet worse with KK. Like I said, I don't think your typical $200nl player is betting this river with AA/KK, so the difference between AA and QQ/JJ/Tx is very small. The only real difference is psychologically people tend to be attatched to AA even though it may have the same value as third pair.

[Jamougha]

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Maybe this is true for some players (ie bad ones)

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He's a random at 200NL stop overthinking [censored].

[aislephive]

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Maybe this is true for some players (ie bad ones)

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He's a random at 200NL stop overthinking [censored].

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I already addressed that a check might be better given it's a random $200nl player. But even so, I wouldn't expect for a random $200nl player to check the river with a better hand, either.