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#1
11-14-2007, 04:13 AM
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Advice needed - NBA totals
I don't know what to make of this really and I'm just looking for some feedback on my methods. I've read some things on sports betting and have a basic understanding of how it all works, but I'm not a math wizard.
I have been tracking bets in theory for the NBA since the second half of last season. I track every pointspread and total bet every night in the NBA. I spend time watching games, studying strategy, evaluating players, schedules, injuries, matchups and visualizing how things will play out. I only take 11-10 bets. While I admit that picking against the pointspread is very difficult I feel that picking totals is much easier in comparison. Over the past 403 contests in the NBA I have gone 221-178-4 on NBA totals. That includes 161-136-4 to end last season without shopping lines and just using SIA's odds. This season I have gone 60-42 so far, there is one game that I didn't pick this season just because I forgot. I have been shopping lines this season however, just using covers.com. At what point can I be confident that I have a long-term edge picking totals in the NBA considering that I'm picking every game every night? I don't really know that picking all the games every night is really the best test, but shouldn't it be harder to show a long-term edge picking every contest? I wonder what would happen if I started picking just select games. Usually there are a couple games each night that I feel I should stay away from, but honestly I have not tracked them to compare any differences. I understand that professional sports betting is a very difficult thing to do and I respect it a great deal. I feel confident in my knowledge and experience as far as playing basketball and understanding strategy goes, but I know that's it's tough to beat the 11-10 odds. How can I really be sure that I have a long-term edge? I don't have any fancy statistical analysis work or anything; I have years of basketball experience playing organized ball but nothing past high school. I've studied the fundamentals of the game for years and I can evaluate players pretty well. I can't really explain how I pick games other than just thinking about them. Sometimes I will get a feel right away if a score is off, other times I will lay down for 15 minutes close my eyes and just think about the game. I watch games, look at box scores, highlights, team and player stats, but I have no hard rules in regards to numbers and picks. I am not claiming to be an expert, nor do I want to delude myself into thinking that I can really beat the odds. I need some mathematical proof to shed some light on the rate that I'm picking winners and what it really means. Maybe it's too early to tell, but I need to know when can results be considered a real edge? I’ve also been doing this same thing in the NFL this season. For totals I am 87-54-3, with line shopping. Maybe it’s all luck or variance, but as far as total bets go I just keep on doing my homework and after each game I check the results and it’s a little bit scary to me, because it’s looking like I should be putting a lot of money into this. In betting pointspreads I really get the feeling that it’s probably a losing proposition for me or at best a very small edge that along with bonus whoring could be profitable. However with totals the lines often jump out at me as being way off and very beatable, but I can’t put it in numbers. I haven’t been at this long enough to throw money away on these feelings, but as the new results come in it’s scary in a way because I just know things but don’t exactly know how I know. I plan on doing this for a few more years atleast in the NFL and NBA to get a better idea or what it takes time wise. I’m in no rush to bet until I can be reasonably sure that I have an edge and if I don’t I can walk away no problem. I don’t crave the action. I understand the emotions involved in gambling and give thought and study to how that will change me if I do start putting large sums of money on games. Poker has helped me understand and control the things that happen to you as you gamble, but I still continue to study that aspect of sports betting as well. Any advice that anyone can offer is greatly appreciated. If you have any questions about me that could help you answer, just ask. Just be honest with me I can take it. 
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#2
11-14-2007, 04:18 AM
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Re: Advice needed - NBA totals
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Linear Mode
